Mon Sep 11

Voice support and Albanese's ratings continue to tumble in Resolve and other polls

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Resolve poll ^[1] for Nine newspapers, conducted September 6–9 from a sample of 1,604, gave “no” to the Voice a 57–43 lead in a forced choice, out from a 54–46 “no” lead in August. Initial preferences were 49% “no” (up four ^[2]), 35% “yes” (down two) and 16% undecided (down two).

In the last week, we have had Voice polls from Essential, Redbridge and Freshwater (see below) as well as Resolve. I have updated the Voice polls graph to reflect these new results. The graph now includes point results and trend lines for Redbridge and Freshwater.

2023 Voice polls.

Essential remains easily the best pollster for “yes”, but even this poll had “no” ahead by six points last week. Resolve, Newspoll and Freshwater polls gave “no” a 14 to 18 point lead, while Redbridge is the worst poll for “yes” with a 22-point lead for “no”. In all polling series, there is a worsening trend for “yes”.

Resolve combined its August and September Voice results for a national sample of 3,207, which would have given “no” about a 55.5–44.5 national lead. “No” led in all states except Tasmania, where “yes” was ahead by 56–44 on a small sample size. The leads for “no” ranged from 51–49 in Victoria to 61–39 in Queensland and Western Australia.

The falling polls for “yes” have encouraged many “yes” supporters on social media to attack the pollsters, spuriously claiming that there is something wrong with the polls. Analyst Kevin Bonham ^[3] addressed many claims of “poll denial” in this long article last Wednesday, written after Newspoll gave “no” a 15-point lead.

Labor and Albanese also down in Resolve poll

Primary votes in this Resolve poll were 36% Labor (down one since August), 34% Coalition (up one), 12% Greens (up one), 5% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady).

Resolve does not give two party estimates until close to elections, but a calculation based on 2022 election preference flows gives Labor about a 55.5–44.5 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since August. While this is still a large lead, Resolve has been the most favourable pollster for Labor since the 2022 election.

On Anthony Albanese, 47% thought he was doing a poor job and 40% a good job, for a net approval of -7, down nine points. Peter Dutton’s net approval increased five points to -8, with only one point separating Albanese and Dutton’s net approval. Albanese’s lead as preferred PM was reduced to 43–28 from 46–25 in August.

Albanese’s polling honeymoon is over. After winning the May 2022 election, he was in positive double digits on net approval until the last two months, but his most recent net approvals are +3 from Essential, -1 from last week’s Newspoll and -7 from Resolve.

Essential poll: ‘No’ extends lead

A national Essential poll ^[5], conducted August 30 to September 3 from a sample of 1,151, gave “no” to the Indigneous Voice to parliament a 48–42 lead, out from a 47–43 “no” lead in August. On voting strength, 41% said they were hard “no” (up three), 7% soft “no” (down two), 30% hard “yes” (down one) and 12% soft “yes” (steady).

In Essential’s two party measure ^[6] that includes undecided, Labor maintained an unchanged 51–43 lead from the previous fortnight. Primary votes were 32% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (down two), 15% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up two), 2% UAP (down one), 7% for all Others (steady) and 6% undecided (steady).

Albanese’s ratings were 46% approve (down two since July) and 43% disapprove (up two), for a net approval of +3, down four points. Dutton’s net approval improved one point to -5.

On Australia’s overall intelligence, 42% thought we were becoming less intelligent, 47% staying the same and 11% becoming more intelligent.

Morgan, Redbridge and Freshwater polls

In last week’s federal weekly Morgan ^[7] poll, conducted August 28 to September 3 from a sample ^[8] of 1,404, Labor led by 53–47, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition, 33.5% Labor, 13% Greens and 16% for all Others.

A federal Redbridge poll ^[9], conducted August 30 to September 4 from a sample of 1,001, gave Labor a 54.1–45.9 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since mid-August ^[10]. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (up four), 13% Greens (up three) and 14% for all Others (down seven).

This poll also gave ^[11] “no” to the Voice a 61–39 lead, a widening from a 56–44 “no” lead in late July ^[12].

The Daily Mail ^[13] reported Saturday that a national Freshwater poll gave “no” a 59–41 lead, a reversal of a 55–45 “yes” lead in May ^[14]. Initial preferences were 50% “no” (up 11), 35% “yes” (down 13) and 15% undecided (up two). No fieldwork dates or sample size are available yet, but the poll was taken “last week”.

Queensland Redbridge poll: 55–45 to LNP

The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. The Poll Bludger ^[15] reported Saturday that a Redbridge poll, conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2,012, gave the Liberal National Party a 55–45 lead, from primary votes of 41% LNP, 26% Labor, 14% Greens and 19% for all Others, which did not include a separate figure for One Nation.

This is the first Redbridge Queensland state poll, and it is easily the worst for Labor of any poll this term. I wrote in late August that Queensland polls have been trending to the LNP this year, and this poll looks like a continuation of that trend.