Tue Apr 18

Voice support increases in Essential and Resolve polls; Animal Justice could win final NSW upper house seat

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

In the latest Essential poll ^[1], support for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to parliament increased slightly to 60-40, from 59-41 in March. But hard “no” support was up two to 26%, soft “no” was down three to 14%, while 27% remained soft “yes” supporters.

Asked about Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and the Liberals’ decision to oppose the Voice, 52% said they were playing politics, while 48% thought they had genuine concerns.

On voting intentions ^[2], federal Labor had a 52-43 two-party lead, including undecided (down slightly from 53-42 last fortnight). This poll was conducted April 12-16 from a sample of 1,136 people.

Primary votes were 34% Labor (up one), 31% Coalition (up one), 14% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady), 3% United Australia Party (up one), 9% for all others (down one), and 4% undecided (down one).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings dropped slightly to 51-36 approval, from 52-35 last fortnight. For the first time, Essential included an approval question on Dutton, finding him at 44% disapproval, 36% approval.

On social media usage, 57% of poll respondents they used Facebook at least once a day, followed by YouTube at 38% and Instagram at 35%. Only 14% used Twitter once a day. By 53-25, respondents did not think their right to privacy was adequately protected in law.

Resolve poll: Voice support at 58-42

Voters supported ^[4] the Voice by 58-42 when asked to choose “yes” or “no” with no option for undecided, as part of a Resolve poll for Nine newspapers conducted April 12-16 from a sample of 1,600 people. Support was up one point from 57-43 in March.

In surveys combined from March and April, a majority in each state were in favour, as well as nationally.

Initial preferences were 46% “yes” (steady since March), 31% “no” (down one) and 22% undecided (steady).

In a question on turnout in a referendum, 81% said they were likely to vote, 10% unlikely and 9% were undecided.

Morgan poll: 56-44 to Labor

A Morgan poll ^[5], conducted April 10-16, gave Labor a 56-44 lead. This was unchanged from the previous week but a 1.5-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Labor, 33% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others.

Newspoll Voice survey over three months

The Poll Bludger ^[6] reported on April 5 that aggregate data from three Newspoll surveys on the Voice to parliament, conducted between February and April, gave “yes” to the Voice an overall 54-38 lead.

State breakdowns had “yes” leading by 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39 in Tasmania. The number of people polled per state ranged from 334 in Tasmania to 1,414 in NSW.

A “yes” vote at a referendum requires majority support in at least four of the six states, as well as majority support nationally.

Newspoll has also released its voting intentions demographic data ^[7] from February to April. The Poll Bludger reported on Saturday that Labor led overall by 55-45, in Victoria by 58-42, in SA by 56-44, and in NSW and WA by 55-45. In Queensland, there was a 50-50 tie.

Queensland remains the most pro-Coalition state after it was the only state to vote for the Coalition at the last election (by a 54-46 margin).

Animal Justice now a good chance to win final NSW upper house seat

The NSW upper house has 42 members, with 21 up for election every four years, so members serve eight-year terms. All 21 are elected by statewide proportional representation with optional preferences. A quota for election is 1/22 of the vote or 4.5%.

With the NSW upper house check count complete ^[8] for the March 25 election, Labor won 8.05 quotas, the Coalition 6.55, the Greens 2.00, One Nation 1.30, Legalise Cannabis 0.81, the Liberal Democrats 0.78, the Shooters 0.69, Animal Justice 0.48 and Elizabeth Farrelly 0.29.

Both major parties were short of their expected totals in the initial count, with the Coalition expected to win 6.60 quotas and Labor 8.10. As a result, Animal Justice needs to close only a 0.07 quota gap on preferences, instead of the expected 0.12 – see analyst Kevin Bonham’s ^[9] commentary.

Although the final seat is clearly a contest between the Coalition’s seventh candidate and Animal Justice, a few parties will take votes that might otherwise reach the Coalition or Animal Justice. This includes Legalise Cannabis, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and Liberal Democrats, as all are well short of a full quota.

So the Coalition will be competing with two other right-wing parties, while Animal Justice will be competing with Legalise Cannabis for left-wing preferences.

Bonham does not think there is a clear favourite between the Coalition and Animal Justice. However, Animal Justice won in similar circumstances from just behind on primary votes in both the 2015 ^[10] and 2019 ^[11] elections.

The “button” press to electronically distribute preferences is scheduled to occur at 11am Wednesday. A win for Animal Justice would give the left an overall 22-20 majority in the upper house, while a Coalition win would tie it at 21-21.

In the lower house, the Liberals won the Ryde recount ^[12] by 54 votes on Saturday, a marginal difference from the original 50-vote Liberal margin. This confirms the lower house result of 45 Labor out of 93 seats, 36 Coalition, three Greens and nine independents, with Labor two seats short of the 47 needed for a majority.