The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Could Josh Frydenberg still have a path to the Liberal leadership?

  • Written by Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

One of those closely watching the extraordinary legal face-off between independent Monique Ryan and her former high-profile staffer, Sally Rugg, will be Josh Frydenberg, who lost Kooyong to the “teal” at last year’s election.

The outcome of the case, going to whether Rugg was forced to work unreasonable hours, could have significant ramifications for parliamentary staffs’ conditions.

But Frydenberg will be focused on whether the fight takes paint off Ryan.

Now in the private sector, Frydenberg hasn’t declared whether he will run again for Kooyong, but he hasn’t lost his political ambition.

He didn’t put his hand up for the Aston byelection, but then insiders didn’t expect him to. He’s concentrated on Kooyong – anyway the Liberals needed a woman in Aston.

If Frydenberg could regain his seat and Peter Dutton lost the 2025 election, one scenario for the Liberals would be for Frydenberg to take over the leadership and position the party to be competitive for the 2028 poll.

There are a lot of “ifs” involved, not least the 2025 result in Kooyong. Its boundaries will be affected by a redistribution. Ryan has another two years to dig in, and independents can be hard to dislodge.

Still, the teals were elected in very special circumstances, helped by the acute unpopularity of Scott Morrison, and some could be vulnerable next time. Ryan might be one of those.

Frydenberg would benefit if the economy were central at the election. But he’d need to make a decision on contesting relatively early, and run a savvier campaign than last time, when he unwisely derided his opponent as a “fake” independent.

There are those who cast doubt on how well Frydenberg would do as leader. Critics argue it’s hard to know what he stands for and that he wants to be popular with everyone. On the other hand, as a former treasurer and former energy minister, he has a wealth of front-line experience.

Frydenberg started out with the label of a conservative, but became more centrist. In 2018 he won the Liberal deputyship overwhelmingly. He carries baggage from the Morrison years, including what some saw as excessive loyalty to the then PM (he was also loyal to PMs Abbott and Turnbull).

Whatever his limitations, however, a Liberal party defeated in 2025 wouldn’t be replete with leadership talent.

Speculation about the significance of a Frydenberg return carries with it the assumption Dutton is doomed to failure. Caveats are required. I recalled being sceptical when Tony Abbott was elected leader. Then he nearly won his first election, and cleaned up at his second.

Read more: Word from The Hill: Another rate rise; support for super tax hike; PM's India trip; Rugg V Ryan[1]

That said, it would be difficult at present to find anyone who’d put any money on Dutton.

Meanwhile he and his party are struggling for a strategy.

Dutton is, on a range of issues, adopting the “just say no” approach. The Liberals are opposing the legislation for implementing the government’s emissions reduction target (the safeguard bill), and bills for the national reconstruction fund (a kick-start for manufacturing), and a fund to generate a money stream to help provide affordable housing.

The “say no” strategy means Labor can counter Liberal attacks on the government over, for example, energy prices, by pointing out the Coalition voted against legislation last year to curb price rises.

Dutton jumped on the government’s superannuation tax rise, but the subsequent polling did not meet Liberal hopes they were on a winner. Newspoll showed strong support (64%) for the change, including 54% of Coalition voters.

While the Coalition is pursuing negative tactics (as Abbott did in opposition), this doesn’t extend to everything. There is important bipartisanship, for instance, on AUKUS. With the deal on the nuclear-powered submarines to be unveiled next week, Dutton on Thursday reaffirmed the opposition “will support the decisions of the government under AUKUS”.

However, one test coming up will be on the level of defence spending in the budget. Will the opposition say it should be higher than whatever the government settles on?

On the Voice to Parliament, Dutton has yet to declare a formal position. But he’s had nothing positive to say about it, and his party room would have a majority against. If the Liberals oppose it, that’s likely to go down poorly with younger voters.

Among the Liberals’ multiple problems is a weak team, which also lacks balance.

Read more: Grattan on Friday: Trimming the tail of the superannuation tax tiger is no easy task[2]

Senior people such as Liberal deputy Sussan Ley and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor are poor performers.

The moderates were decimated at the election, and those left are failing to act as a cohesive influence.

Backbencher Bridget Archer speaks out on issues, but comes across as reflecting and protecting her seat rather than having wider clout within the party.

The Liberals’ Senate leader, Simon Birmingham, is a heavyweight moderate who is not the driving force he should be. Former foreign minister Marise Payne, also a moderate, is neither seen nor heard publicly.

Valuable parliamentary seats are taken up by people with extreme positions, such as senators Gerard Rennick from Queensland and Alex Antic from South Australia.

Scott Morrison is in another category, but should make way for new blood.

The challenge of recruiting good potential candidates and getting them selected is only likely to get worse at a time when a political career has become unattractive to many, and the party erects road blocks to the best and brightest.

At the grass roots, it is vulnerable to infiltration by fundamentalist religious groups. Organisationally, it’s riven by factionalism and incompetent, with the Victorian, NSW and Western Australian divisions dysfunctional. Dutton needs to tackle this, but it’s a near-impossible task.

Among Dutton’s problem is Dutton himself.

As leader, the right-winger has shown himself pragmatic and managed to hold the party together. He is an asset in his home state of Queensland, where Labor is weak. But it is hard to see him making inroads in the south, especially in the progressive state of Victoria. Observers are looking to Aston to give an early reading.

Labor holds government by a very narrow margin, but as things stand now, Dutton’s only route to victory in 2025 would require the Albanese government – which faces some tough economic problems – to fail lamentably in the next two years.

Not impossible. Labor went into minority government in 2010 after a good win in 2007. Malcolm Turnbull turned Abbott’s 2013 landslide into a close result in 2016.

But if Albanese doesn’t squander power, the Liberals would be pitching for a two-stage comeback at best. And Frydenberg just might be back in the play.

Read more https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-could-josh-frydenberg-still-have-a-path-to-the-liberal-leadership-201463

The Times Features

Best Deals on Home Furniture Online

Key Highlights Discover the best deals on high-quality outdoor furniture online. Transform your outdoor space into a stylish and comfortable oasis. Explore a wide range of d...

Discover the Best Women's Jumpers for Every Season

Key Highlights Explore lightweight jumpers for spring and summer, ensuring breathability and ease. Wrap up warm with cozy wool jumpers for the chilly autumn and winter season...

Uncover the Elegance of Gorgeous Diamond Tennis Necklaces

Key Highlights Diamond tennis necklaces are a timeless piece of jewelry that exudes elegance and sophistication. They feature a continuous line of brilliant-cut diamonds, cre...

Dental Implants vs. Dentures: Which Is Better for You?

When it comes to replacing missing teeth, two of the most common options are dental implants and dentures. Both have their advantages and disadvantages, so choosing between them ...

What Neck Pain Really Means (And Why It’s More Than Just Poor Posture)

Neck pain is often brushed off as something temporary — a tight spot after a long day at the desk or a poor night’s sleep. But when the discomfort keeps returning, it could be a ...

The Work of Gosha Rubchinskiy: Fashion, Culture, and Youth

From Designer to Cultural Architect Gosha Rubchinskiy is not just a fashion designer—he's a cultural force. Born in Moscow in 1984, Rubchinskiy began his career in fashion in t...

Times Magazine

The Essential Guide to Transforming Office Spaces for Maximum Efficiency

Why Office Fitouts MatterA well-designed office can make all the difference in productivity, employee satisfaction, and client impressions. Businesses of all sizes are investing in updated office spaces to create environments that foster collaborat...

The A/B Testing Revolution: How AI Optimized Landing Pages Without Human Input

A/B testing was always integral to the web-based marketing world. Was there a button that converted better? Marketing could pit one against the other and see which option worked better. This was always through human observation, and over time, as d...

Using Countdown Timers in Email: Do They Really Increase Conversions?

In a world that's always on, where marketers are attempting to entice a subscriber and get them to convert on the same screen with one email, the power of urgency is sometimes the essential element needed. One of the most popular ways to create urg...

Types of Software Consultants

In today's technology-driven world, businesses often seek the expertise of software consultants to navigate complex software needs. There are several types of software consultants, including solution architects, project managers, and user experienc...

CWU Assistive Tech Hub is Changing Lives: Win a Free Rollator Walker This Easter!

🌟 Mobility. Independence. Community. All in One. This Easter, the CWU Assistive Tech Hub is pleased to support the Banyule community by giving away a rollator walker. The giveaway will take place during the Macleod Village Easter Egg Hunt & Ma...

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

LayBy Shopping