The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
Times Media

.

Many Pacific nations now have falling populations

  • Written by John Connell, Professor of Human Geography, University of Sydney
many Pacific nations now have falling populations

In 1989, distinguished Australian geographer Gerard Ward wrote that the Pacific was emptying out. As people on smaller islands left to seek opportunity elsewhere, the region risked becoming Earth’s empty quarter[1]. He wrote:

Perhaps 100 years hence, almost all of the descendants of today’s Polynesian or Micronesian islanders will live in Auckland, Sydney, San Francisco and Salt Lake City. Occasionally they may recall that their ancestors once lived on tiny Pacific islands … set in an empty ocean.

Ward’s prediction attracted criticism[2] for its doomsday tone. But was he right?

For some countries, he may have been spot on. Populations are now falling in many of the smallest states. On tiny Pitcairn Island, with a population of fewer than 50[3], it is well over a decade since the last child was born.

But it’s not the same everywhere in the Pacific – while Micronesia[4] and Polynesia[5] are broadly shrinking, Melanesian[6] nations are booming.

Migration isn’t new, of course. What will be new is the prospect of so many people moving that small nations effectively cease to exist. Climate change will only intensify these shifts.

Pitcairn sign
Pitcairn Island is a long way from anywhere – and the population is not getting any larger. Shutterstock

Who’s leaving – and where are they going?

Just in the past six months, populations have declined in two US territories, American Samoa and the Marshall Islands as well as the French overseas collectivity of New Caledonia.

American Samoa’s population has fallen from around 56,000 in 2010 to less than 50,000 in 2020, according to US census data. This is due in part to younger people moving to the US mainland and having children there. Just 6% of the territory’s population were born in the United States, indicating very few people return once they move.

Populations are falling even faster in the Marshall Islands to the north, down 20% between 2011 and 2021 to around 42,000 people. Where are people going? Predominantly to the US, where Marshall Islanders are scattered from Hawaii to Arkansas.

There are good reasons for people to move. The Marshall Islands’ 2021 census found almost half[7] of all families on the islands worried about not having enough to eat. Islanders are moving to escape poverty.

New Caledonia’s population has now fallen[8] below 270,000. Birth rates have fallen, while COVID drove death rates up. When people migrate, they tend to move to France.

pago pago Places like Pago Pago, the capital of American Samoa, are farewelling young people overseas. Shutterstock

Is the same trend visible elsewhere?

Longer-term declines are visible in the neighbouring Federated States of Micronesia[9] and Palau[10], although not at such dramatic rates. Following New Caledonia into decline are the Pacific’s other two French territories, French Polynesia, where the population has plateaued[11], while the population at the much smaller territory known as Wallis and Futuna is steadily declining[12].

For other states, the major migration has already happened. More than 90% of all Niue residents live in New Zealand[13], where they hold citizenship, leaving only around 1,600 living on the islands as of 2017. For the people of this isolated, rocky island, migration has become normal, expected and even necessary.

Tokelau, too, has the lion’s share[14] of its people on New Zealand – 7,000, compared with just 1,500 remaining on the islands. It’s the same[15] for the larger Cook Islands, with more than 60,000 in New Zealand and fewer than 15,000 people on the islands. The populations on all three of these island nations are holding relatively steady.

What about the larger states? Long sandwiched between smaller Polynesian and larger Melanesian states, Fiji’s population growth has now slowed dramatically. Many people are moving internally, leaving smaller islands further out in favour of the two main islands[16].

Both Tonga and Samoa are steadily losing people[17], many to New Zealand. These nations still have the majority of their population resident on their islands, for now.

Why do people leave even larger island states, where there are better economic opportunities?

One answer is remittances: the money migrants working overseas send back home to support their families. Remittances were particularly important during COVID lockdown periods when tourism collapsed – and even more so for Tonga after this year’s giant eruption of an undersea volcano[18]. On the world stage, Tonga and Samoa are among the top remittance-receiving countries. The World Bank estimates remittance flows[19] are equivalent to 40% of Tonga’s GDP and 25% of Samoa’s.

Aftermath of Tonga tsunami Catastrophes like this year’s volcano and tsunami in Tonga can accelerate migration. Royal Australian Navy, Christopher Szumlanski/AP

What about climate change?

Rising sea levels are affecting the lowest-lying nations first, such as the atoll states of Kiribati and Tuvalu, which are only a few metres above sea level.

Already, storm surges have forced people to move to higher ground, while flooding from the sea has made some farmland too salty[20] for crops. That’s why Kiribati’s former president, Anote Tong, has sought[21] “migration with dignity” – essentially, wholesale relocation of all Kiribati people.

You might expect the populations of these threatened nations to be dropping, but they’ve actually grown[22] in recent years. Despite this, people are moving wherever possible – one by one, household by household. A third of all Tuvaluans now live in Auckland.

tuvalu There’s not much between Tuvalu and the sea. Shutterstock

The exception: Melanesia

Only the independent Melanesian states of Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea are resisting this trend. Here, populations are still growing and few people are leaving permanently.

In part, that’s because their former colonisers aren’t interested in encouraging migration. Australia, which governed Papua New Guinea until 1975, has shown interest mainly in bringing migrants to Australia temporarily, to help with the farm labour shortage.

That means the largest islands in the Pacific – and the islands closest to Australia – will continue to grow, with the attendant pressure on resources.

What does mass emigration do to a country?

Losing skills, farmers and the next generation overseas is not conducive[23] to national development. Remittances are not the same as actual people. Children born overseas often have little interest in “returning” to a home they’ve never seen.

Remarkably, this is happening when the Pacific has become geopolitically crucial, as China and the US vie for influence over a massive and valuable space.

Gerard Ward foresaw what these alarming trends would mean for the blue continent. Even as the world’s population has just shot past eight billion, one part of the world is contracting.

Read more: Underpaid at home, vulnerable abroad: how seasonal job schemes are draining Pacific nations of vital workers[24]

References

  1. ^ Earth’s empty quarter (www.jstor.org)
  2. ^ attracted criticism (www.jstor.org)
  3. ^ population of fewer than 50 (www.france24.com)
  4. ^ Micronesia (en.wikipedia.org)
  5. ^ Polynesia (en.wikipedia.org)
  6. ^ Melanesian (en.wikipedia.org)
  7. ^ almost half (www.rnz.co.nz)
  8. ^ now fallen (www.rnz.co.nz)
  9. ^ Federated States of Micronesia (countrymeters.info)
  10. ^ Palau (www.worldometers.info)
  11. ^ plateaued (www.worldometers.info)
  12. ^ steadily declining (www.worldometers.info)
  13. ^ live in New Zealand (www.dfat.gov.au)
  14. ^ lion’s share (www.mfat.govt.nz)
  15. ^ the same (www.mfat.govt.nz)
  16. ^ two main islands (www.fijitimes.com)
  17. ^ steadily losing people (teara.govt.nz)
  18. ^ undersea volcano (theconversation.com)
  19. ^ remittance flows (data.worldbank.org)
  20. ^ too salty (www.theguardian.com)
  21. ^ has sought (www.climatechangenews.com)
  22. ^ actually grown (www.worldometers.info)
  23. ^ not conducive (theconversation.com)
  24. ^ Underpaid at home, vulnerable abroad: how seasonal job schemes are draining Pacific nations of vital workers (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/earths-empty-quarter-many-pacific-nations-now-have-falling-populations-195281

The Times Features

Amazon Australia and DoorDash announce two-year DashPass offer only for Prime members

New and existing Prime members in Australia can enjoy a two-year membership to DashPass for free, and gain access to AU$0 delivery fees on eligible DoorDash orders New offer co...

6 things to do if your child’s weight is beyond the ideal range – and 1 thing to avoid

One of the more significant challenges we face as parents is making sure our kids are growing at a healthy rate. To manage this, we take them for regular check-ups with our GP...

Joykids Australia Presents the Joykids Family Rave: A Weekend Adventure Like No Other

Get ready to kick off the first day of summer and the festive season with an unforgettable family adventure! Joykids Australia is excited to announce the Joykids Family Rave—an...

New study suggests weight loss drugs like Ozempic could help with knee pain. Here’s why there may be a link

The drug semaglutide, commonly known by the brand names Ozempic or Wegovy, was originally developed[1] to help people with type 2 diabetes manage their blood sugar levels. How...

Maintaining Your Pool After a Marble Interior Upgrade

After upgrading your pool with a marble interior, it’s crucial to understand that maintenance is key to preserving its elegance and longevity. You’ll want to regularly skim for d...

Labor using explanatory document to hide true powers of Misinformation Bill

The opinions and commentary of individuals could be deemed misinformation under Labor’s proposed legislation changes, according to James McComish of Victorian Bar. Appearing in...

Times Magazine

6 Reasons Why Perfume Gift Sets Make an Ideal Present

Perfume gift sets are the perfect way to show someone you care. Whether you're looking for a special treat for a loved one or want to give yourself a luxurious gift, perfume gift sets are a great choice. They come with a variety of different scents...

BLUETTI Power

In today's world, electricity fuels every aspect of our lives, from home to off-grid adventures. However, high energy costs can put a significant dent in our wallets. The upcoming BLUETTI Power Week sale in September is the best time to score aff...

Rental Car Accidents: Key Steps to Take Right After a Crash

Rental Car Accidents: Key Steps to Take Right After a Crash The Immediate Aftermath of a Rental Car Accident When the unexpected happens, and you're involved in a rental car accident, the moments immediately following the crash are crucial. S...

TWS Andes Earbuds with Active Noise Cancelling

TWS Andes Earbuds with ANC Boasting the most up-to-the-minute Dual Mic Active Noise Cancelling (ANC), the EFM TWS Andes Earbuds offer complete peace as well as peace of mind. The TWS Andes are sweat and dust-resistant IP54 rated and equi...

The Evolution of Digital Marketing: Trends and Innovations.

In the dynamic realm of digital marketing, staying ahead of the curve is imperative for businesses aiming to thrive in an increasingly competitive landscape. As we navigate through the ever-evolving digital ecosystem, it's crucial to understand the...

Custom Stickers: The Small but Mighty Marketing Tool

In today's fast-paced and highly competitive business landscape, finding innovative and cost-effective ways to promote your brand is crucial.   Custom stickers are a modest but effective marketing technique that frequently goes unnoticed as digita...