Sat Nov 5

Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Victorian election will be held in three weeks, on November 26. A Newspoll, conducted October 31 to November 3 from a sample of 1,007, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Newspoll in late August.

Primary votes were 37% Labor (down four), 37% Coalition (up one), 13% Greens (steady) and 13% for all Others (up three). Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger ^[1].

51% were satisfied with Labor Premier Daniel Andrews (down three) and 44% were dissatisfied (up three), for a net approval of +7, down six points. Liberal leader Matthew Guy had a net approval of -20, down three points. Andrews led Guy as better premier by 52-33 (51-34 in August).

A question on whether Labor deserved to be re-elected, or it was time to give someone else a go had the latter leading by 47-45, a reversal of a 47-46 lead for deserved to be re-elected in November 2021.

Analyst Kevin Bonham ^[2] said this is the first public Victorian poll from any pollster since June 2021 that has had Labor’s lead inside 55-45, and that has not had Labor ahead on primary votes.

If this poll result were replicated on Election Day in three weeks, Labor would still win easily. But they will be worried that the polls continue to narrow in the final three weeks. A Resolve poll conducted about two weeks ago had given Labor a 59-41 lead.

A federal Labor government would be expected to assist state Coalition parties. While federal Labor had been in honeymoon poll territory, the last federal Newspoll ^[4] had their lead sliding to 55-45. I believe inflation and cost of living issues will negatively impact governments at all levels.

This poll had Labor’s primary vote down 6% in the lower house from the 2018 election. If Labor suffered a similar swing against it in the upper house, they would be likely to lose more seats than they would had the upper house electoral system been reformed from the current group voting ticket system.

NSW Resolve poll: Labor’s lead falls, but would still win election

The New South Wales state election will be held in March 2023. A Resolve poll ^[6] for The Sydney Morning Herald gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (down five since September), the Coalition 35% (up five), the Greens 11% (up one), the Shooters 1% (down one), independents 10% (steady) and others 5% (steady).

Two-party estimates are not provided by Resolve until close to elections, but Bonham ^[7] estimated this poll would be 54.5-45.5 to Labor, a 5.5-point gain for the Coalition since September.

Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet led Labor’s Chris Minns by 30-29 as preferred premier (a 28-28 tie in September). This poll was presumably conducted with the federal Resolve polls in early and late October from a sample of 1,150.

It is likely the last NSW Resolve poll was a massive Labor-favouring outlier, and hence the big swing back to the Coalition in this poll. Nevertheless, Labor retains a solid lead, and is the favourite to win the election next March. Other recent NSW polls ^[8] have also had Labor ahead.

WA poll: Mark McGowan remains very popular

The Poll Bludger ^[9] reported on Friday that a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian, conducted October 19-21 from a sample of 637, gave WA Labor Premier Mark McGowan a 70% approval rating (up two since March) and an 18% disapproval (down seven). Liberal leader David Honey was at 31% disapproval, 9% approval.

Federal Morgan poll: 55.5-44.5 to Labor

This week’s federal Morgan poll gave Labor a 55.5-44.5 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week. The Morgan weekly video update ^[10] included primary votes, with Labor on 38% (up 1.5), the Coalition 37% (down 0.5), the Greens 12% (up one), One Nation 3% (down 1.5), independents 6% (down two) and others 4% (up 1.5).

This is Labor’s highest lead in a Morgan poll so far this term. Polling was conducted October 24-30, so the first two days were before the October 25 budget was delivered.

Federal Resolve poll on sport sponsorship

I covered the previous federal Resolve poll ^[11] after the budget that gave Labor about a 58.5-41.5 lead. There were additional questions on which companies should be allowed to sponsor sports teams. By 62-25, voters would support ^[12] a ban on gambling and betting companies.

However, bans were not supported for any other companies. By 45-38, voters would allow beer and spirit companies to sponsor. Voters supported allowing coal, oil and gas companies by 51-27 and fast food chains by 60-24.

By 43-38, voters agreed that sport players should have the right to tell their team or league to ban certain companies from sponsoring them.

Netanyahu’s bloc wins outright majority in Israeli election

At Tuesday’s Israeli election, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of four right-wing and religious parties – his own Likud, the Religious Zionists, Shas and UTJ – won a combined 64 of the 120 Knesset seats, exceeding the 61 needed for a majority. I covered this for The Poll Bludger ^[13].