The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Inflation is being amplified by firms with market power

  • Written by John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
Inflation is being amplified by firms with market power

The upsurge in inflation has revived old debates about what causes it.

Until recently, it has been an article of faith among both businesses and union leaders that inflation is “cost-push”, meaning it is caused by higher input prices.

Businesses (and Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe[1]) fear a wage-price spiral, in which wages push up processing costs, and prices push up wages.

Union leaders, including ACTU Secretary Sally McManus[2], suggest it’s growing profits that are adding to prices and pushing up inflation.

Both versions of the cost-push theory are problematic.

The obvious difficulty with the wage-push idea is that wages have not grown fast, and show little sign of accelerating, even after a year of rapid prices growth.

Pushing real wages down even further as an anti-inflation measure is likely to do little more than exacerbate labour shortages.

The problem with the profit-push idea is more subtle.

Cost-push can’t explain what’s happening

The number of markets dominated by only a few large firms with pricing power has grown since the 1990s, but until very recently Australia had historically low inflation. And market concentration didn’t suddenly grow during COVID.

So, there is no obvious reason why profit-push inflation should emerge now, any more than there is a reason why wage-push inflation should happen now.

Our research on imperfectly competitive markets clarifies things.

Read more: Inflation hasn't been higher for 32 years. What now?[3]

We have identified a theoretical channel through which market power amplifies[4], but does not trigger high inflation.

Central to the channel is the concept of a “strategic industry supply curve[5].”

What is a strategic industry supply curve?

When there is perfect competition, industries supply what would be expected.

But where one or more firms is big enough to have market power, for any given quantity sold, prices will be higher, and increasingly higher as demand for the product climbs.

This means that after a boost to demand, such as the one that followed the COVID stimulus and the end of lockdowns, firms with market power amplify the resulting inflationary shock.

Read more: View from The Hill: Chalmers warns he'll deliver bad news[6]

The analysis works as follows. In setting prices, firms with market power balance the benefit of higher prices against the loss of sales due to reduced demand and increased supply from competing firms.

When demand increases, the losses from markups are lower.

Market power cuts both ways

However, a different analysis applies in the face of cost shocks from energy and other commodities, of the kind we have seen this year.

When costs increase, firms with market power might choose not to pass on the full increase, so as to avoid losing sales and market share.

A large body of research[7] suggests that increases in import costs are typically not passed on in full, at least initially.

This has some interesting implications for fuel prices, to take one example.

Firms smooth shocks, even for petrol

A barrel of oil typically yields around 130 litres[8] of liquid fuel along with some by-products, so the increase in world prices from US$80 to US$120 per barrel following the invasion of Ukraine added about 33 US cents (44 Australian cents) per litre to the cost of petrol.

But in fact, the increase in pump prices in Australia was only about 30c per litre.

The Morrison government’s temporary halving of the petrol excise cut 22 cents per litre from the price, but much of it was recouped[9] in the next upward swing in the fuel cycle, leaving a reduction of only 15 cents per litre by May, after which prices remained high.

Read more: What is petrol excise, and why does Australia have it anyway?[10]

In effect, refiners and retailers recouped part of the reduction in margins they absorbed in response to the initial shock.

The good news is the removal of the subsidy in September should see an increase of less than 22c per litre, as long as global oil prices don’t rebound.

Although our analysis does not support the simplistic view that inflation is being driven by market power, it illuminates the way in which market power and inflation interact.

Most importantly, it provides no support for the idea of a wage-price spiral. And that means is no case for cutting real wages to fight inflation.

References

  1. ^ and Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe (www.afr.com)
  2. ^ Sally McManus (www.afr.com)
  3. ^ Inflation hasn't been higher for 32 years. What now? (theconversation.com)
  4. ^ amplifies (www.uq.edu.au)
  5. ^ strategic industry supply curve (www.uq.edu.au)
  6. ^ View from The Hill: Chalmers warns he'll deliver bad news (theconversation.com)
  7. ^ research (www.jstor.org)
  8. ^ 130 litres (petroleumservicecompany.com)
  9. ^ recouped (www.accc.gov.au)
  10. ^ What is petrol excise, and why does Australia have it anyway? (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/inflation-is-being-amplified-by-firms-with-market-power-187418

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...