The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

As climate change parches the Southwest, here's a better way to share water from the shrinking Colorado River

  • Written by Daniel Craig McCool, Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Utah
As climate change parches the Southwest, here's a better way to share water from the shrinking Colorado River

The Colorado River[1] is a vital lifeline for the arid U.S. Southwest. It supplies water to seven states, Mexico, 29 Indian reservations and millions of acres of irrigated farmland. The river and its tributaries support 16 million jobs and provide drinking water to Denver, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix and Tucson – in all, 40 million people.

These rivers also course through several of the world’s most iconic national parks, including the Grand Canyon[2] in Arizona and Canyonlands[3] in Utah. Today millions of people visit the Colorado River Basin to fish, boat and explore.

Southwestern states, tribes and Mexico share the Colorado’s water under the century-old 1922 Colorado Compact[4] and updates to it. But today, because of climate change and rapid development, there is an enormous gap between the amount of water the compact allocates to parties and the amount that is actually in the river. With users facing unprecedented water shortages, the compact is hopelessly inadequate to deal with current and future realities.

I have studied water resource development[5] for 35 years and written extensively about Native American water[6] rights[7] and the future of America’s rivers[8]. As I see it, the compact rests on three fundamental errors that now plague efforts to develop a new vision for the region. I believe the most productive way forward is for states and tribes to negotiate a new agreement that reflects 21st-century realities.

Map of Colorado River basin
The Colorado River and its tributaries drain parts of seven Western states and 29 Indian reservations. Climate.gov[9]

Flawed data and allocations

The compact commissioners made two fatal blunders when they allocated water in 1922. First, they appraised the river’s volume based on inaccurate data that wildly overestimated it. Actual annual historic flows were far below what was needed to satisfy the dictates of the compact[10].

There is evidence that the commissioners did this purposefully[11]: Reaching an agreement was easier if there was more water to go around. This strategy guaranteed that the compact would allocate more water than was actually in the river, a situation now referred to as the “structural deficit[12].”

Second, the compact allocated water in fixed amounts rather than percentages of the river’s actual flow. That approach would be viable if river flow were constant and the agreement were based on sound science. But the Colorado’s flow is highly variable.

The compact divided the river artificially into an Upper Basin (Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico) and a Lower Basin (Arizona, Nevada and California), and allocated 7.5 million acre-feet of water to each basin. An acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or about 325,000 gallons.

In 1944, a treaty allocated an additional 1.5 million acre-feet to Mexico[13], for a total of 16.5 million acre-feet. However, actual flow has typically been below that amount. River volume at the time of the compact was about 18 million acre-feet per year, but the 20th-century average was closer to 14.8 million acre-feet[14]. And then things got much worse.

Drought and climate change have pushed the Colorado River to a crisis point.

In the past 20 years, climate change has further reduced the Colorado’s volume[15]. A “megadrought,” now in its 21st year, has reduced flows by nearly 20%, and studies predict that it will fall 20% to 35% or more by midcentury[16]. In late August 2021, Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, was just 35% full. Lake Powell, the second-largest U.S. reservoir, was less than 30% full[17].

That month, the Bureau of Reclamation declared an official shortage[18], which will force Arizona, Nevada and Mexico to make significant cuts in water use. In short, the original fixed allocations are no longer anchored in reality.

In my view, a much better approach would be to allocate water among the states and tribes in percentages, based on a five-year rolling average that would change as the river’s flow changes. Without such a shift, the compact will merely perpetuate a hydrological fallacy that leads water users to claim water that does not exist.

No Native participation

Beyond these errors, the compact also rests on a fundamental injustice. The 30 tribal nations in the Colorado River Basin are the river’s original users, and their reservations encompass huge swaths of land. But they were completely left out of the 1922 allocations.

Compact commissioners, whose views reflected the overt racism of that era, assumed Native peoples did not deserve their own allocation[19]. Making matters worse, nearly every statute, compact and regulation promulgated since 1922 – a body of rules known collectively as the Law of the River[20] – has either ignored or marginalized Native water users[21]. Many tribes, scholars and advocacy groups view this as an injustice of monumental proportions[22].

Tribes have gone to court to claim a share of the Colorado’s water and have won significant victories, beginning with the landmark 1963 Arizona v. California[23] ruling, in which the U.S. Supreme Court recognized water rights for five Indian reservations in the Colorado River Basin. The tribes continued to press their claims through numerous negotiated settlements[24], starting in 1978 and continuing to this day. They now have rights to over 2 million acre-feet of water in the Lower Basin and 1.1 million acre-feet in the Upper Basin. And 12 tribes have unresolved claims that could total up to 405,000 acre-feet[25].

Currently, however, tribes are not drawing all of their water because they don’t have the pipelines and other infrastructure that they need[26] to divert and use it. This allows non-Indian communities downstream to use the surplus water, without payment in most cases[27]. I believe a new compact should include tribes as equal partners with states and give them meaningful and significant roles in all future negotiations and policymaking in the basin.

A new vision

The compact states are now renegotiating interim river management guidelines[28] that were first adopted in 2007. This process must be completed by 2026 when that agreement expires.

[More than 140,000 readers get one of The Conversation’s informative newsletters. Join the list today[29].]

I see these discussions as an excellent opportunity to discard the compact’s unworkable provisions and negotiate a new agreement that responds to the unprecedented challenges now affecting the Southwest. As I see it, an agreement negotiated by and for white men, based on egregiously erroneous data, in an age when people drove Model T cars cannot possibly serve as the foundation for a dramatically different future.

In my view, the 1922 compact is now an albatross that can only inhibit innovation. Eliminating fixed rights to water that doesn’t actually exist could spur members to negotiate a new, science-based agreement that is fairer, more inclusive and more efficient and sustainable.

References

  1. ^ Colorado River (www.usgs.gov)
  2. ^ Grand Canyon (www.nps.gov)
  3. ^ Canyonlands (www.nps.gov)
  4. ^ 1922 Colorado Compact (papers.ssrn.com)
  5. ^ studied water resource development (www.researchgate.net)
  6. ^ water (uapress.arizona.edu)
  7. ^ rights (uapress.arizona.edu)
  8. ^ future of America’s rivers (cup.columbia.edu)
  9. ^ Climate.gov (toolkit.climate.gov)
  10. ^ the dictates of the compact (www.ucpress.edu)
  11. ^ did this purposefully (uapress.arizona.edu)
  12. ^ structural deficit (wrrc.arizona.edu)
  13. ^ Mexico (www.ibwc.gov)
  14. ^ 14.8 million acre-feet (www.doi.gov)
  15. ^ further reduced the Colorado’s volume (doi.org)
  16. ^ 20% to 35% or more by midcentury (theconversation.com)
  17. ^ 30% full (earthobservatory.nasa.gov)
  18. ^ official shortage (www.usbr.gov)
  19. ^ did not deserve their own allocation (www.ucpress.edu)
  20. ^ Law of the River (www.usbr.gov)
  21. ^ ignored or marginalized Native water users (papers.ssrn.com)
  22. ^ an injustice of monumental proportions (www.naturalresourcespolicy.org)
  23. ^ Arizona v. California (www.justice.gov)
  24. ^ negotiated settlements (unmpress.com)
  25. ^ acre-feet (www.naturalresourcespolicy.org)
  26. ^ don’t have the pipelines and other infrastructure that they need (grist.org)
  27. ^ without payment in most cases (tentribespartnership.org)
  28. ^ renegotiating interim river management guidelines (qcnr.usu.edu)
  29. ^ Join the list today (memberservices.theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-parches-the-southwest-heres-a-better-way-to-share-water-from-the-shrinking-colorado-river-168723

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

NSW has a new fashion sector strategy – but a sustainable industry needs a federally legislated response

The New South Wales government recently announced the launch of the NSW Fashion Sector Strategy, 2025–28[1]. The strategy, developed in partnership with the Australian Fashion ...

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...

There’s a new vaccine for pneumococcal disease in Australia. Here’s what to know

The Australian government announced last week there’s a new vaccine[1] for pneumococcal disease on the National Immunisation Program for all children. This vaccine replaces pr...