The Times Australia
Fisher and Paykel Appliances
The Times World News

.

How contagious is Delta? How long are you infectious? Is it more deadly? A quick guide to the latest science

  • Written by Lara Herrero, Research Leader in Virology and Infectious Disease, Griffith University
How contagious is Delta? How long are you infectious? Is it more deadly? A quick guide to the latest science

Delta was recognised as a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern[1] in May 2021[2] and has proved extremely difficult to control in unvaccinated populations.

Delta has managed to out-compete[3] other variants, including Alpha. Variants are classified as “of concern” because they’re either more contagious than the original, cause more hospitalisations and deaths, or are better at evading vaccines and therapies. Or all of the above.

So how does Delta fare on these measures? And what have we learnt since Delta was first listed as a variant of concern?

Read more: Is Delta defeating us? Here's why the variant makes contact tracing so much harder[4]

How contagious is Delta?

The R0 tells us how many other people, on average, one infected person will pass the virus on to.

Delta has an R0 of 5-8[5], meaning one infected person passes it onto five to eight others, on average.

This compares with an R0 of 1.5-3 for the original strain.

So Delta is twice to five times as contagious as the virus that circulated in 2020.

The Conversation, CC BY-ND[6] What happens when you’re exposed to Delta? SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted through droplets an infected person releases when they breathe, cough or sneeze. In some circumstances, transmission also occurs when a person touches a contaminated object, then touches their face. Four Turkish men walk across an open town space.
One person infected with Delta infects, on average, five to eight others. Shutterstock[7]

Once SARS-CoV-2 enters your body – usually through your nose or mouth – it starts to replicate.

The period from exposure to the virus being detectable by a PCR test is called the latent period. For Delta, one study suggests this is an average of four days[8] (with a range of three to five days).

That’s two days faster than the original strain, which took roughly six days (with a range of five to eight days).

The Conversation, CC BY-ND[9] The virus then continues to replicate. Although often there are no symptoms yet, the person has become infectious. People with COVID-19 appear to be[10] most infectious two days before to three days after symptoms start, though it’s unclear whether this differs with Delta. The time from virus exposure to symptoms is called the incubation period. But there is often a gap between when a person becomes infectious to others to when they show symptoms. As the virus replicates, the viral load increases. For Delta, the viral load is up to roughly 1,200 times higher[11] than the original strain. With faster replication and higher viral loads it is easy to see why Delta is challenging contact tracers and spreading so rapidly. What are the possible complications? Like the original strain, the Delta variant can affect many of the body’s organs including the lungs, heart and kidneys. Complications include blood clots, which at their most severe can result in strokes or heart attacks[12]. Around 10-30% of people with COVID-19 will experience prolonged symptoms, known as long COVID[13], which can last for months and cause significant impairment, including in people who were previously well. Woman in a mask waits in hospital waiting room. Even previously well people can get long COVID. Shutterstock[14] Longer-lasting symptoms can include fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pain, heart palpitations, headaches, brain fog, muscle aches, sleep disturbance, depression and the loss of smell and taste. Is it more deadly? Evidence the Delta variant makes people sicker than the original virus is growing. Preliminary studies from Canada[15] and Singapore[16] found people infected with Delta were more likely to require hospitalisation and were at greater risk of dying than those with the original virus. In the Canadian study, Delta resulted in a 6.1% chance of hospitalisation and a 1.6% chance of ICU admission. This compared with other variants of concern which landed 5.4% of people in hospital and 1.2% in intensive care. In the Singapore study, patients with Delta had a 49% chance of developing pneumonia and a 28% chance of needing extra oxygen. This compared with a 38% chance of developing pneumonia and 11% needing oxygen with the original strain. Similarly, a published study from Scotland[17] found Delta doubled the risk of hospitalisation compared to the Alpha variant. Older man with cold symptoms lays down, wrapped in a blanket, cradling his head, holding a tissue to his nose. Emerging evidence suggests Delta is more likely to cause severe disease than the original strain. Shutterstock[18] How do the vaccines stack up against Delta? So far, the data show[19] a complete course of the Pfizer[20], AstraZeneca[21] or Moderna[22] vaccine reduces your chance of severe disease (requiring hospitalisation) by more than 85%. While protection is lower for Delta than the original strain, studies show good coverage for all vaccines after two doses. Can you still get COVID after being vaccinated? Yes. Breakthrough[23] infection occurs when a vaccinated person tests positive for SARS-Cov-2, regardless of whether they have symptoms. Breakthrough infection appears more common[24] with Delta than the original strains. Most symptoms of breakthrough infection are mild[25] and don’t last as long. It’s also possible[26] to get COVID twice, though this isn’t common. How likely are you to die from COVID-19? In Australia, over the life of the pandemic, 1.4% of people with COVID-19 have died from it, compared with 1.6% in the United States and 1.8% in the United Kingdom. Data from the United States shows[27] people who were vaccinated were ten times less likely than those who weren’t to die from the virus. The Delta variant is currently proving to be a challenge to control on a global scale, but with full vaccination and maintaining our social distancing practices, we reduce the spread. Read more: Why is Delta such a worry? It's more infectious, probably causes more severe disease, and challenges our vaccines[28] References^ variant of concern (www.cdc.gov)^ May 2021 (www.who.int)^ out-compete (medicalxpress.com)^ Is Delta defeating us? Here's why the variant makes contact tracing so much harder (theconversation.com)^ R0 of 5-8 (www.bbc.com)^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)^ Shutterstock (www.shutterstock.com)^ average of four days (www.medrxiv.org)^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)^ appear to be (jamanetwork.com)^ roughly 1,200 times higher (www.nature.com)^ can result in strokes or heart attacks (www.abc.net.au)^ long COVID (theconversation.com)^ Shutterstock (www.shutterstock.com)^ Canada (www.medrxiv.org)^ Singapore (papers.ssrn.com)^ Scotland (www.thelancet.com)^ Shutterstock (www.shutterstock.com)^ data show (www.medrxiv.org)^ Pfizer (www.nejm.org)^ AstraZeneca (papers.ssrn.com)^ Moderna (www.medrxiv.org)^ Breakthrough (theconversation.com)^ appears more common (theconversation.com)^ are mild (theconversation.com)^ also possible (www.bbc.com)^ shows (www.cdc.gov)^ Why is Delta such a worry? It's more infectious, probably causes more severe disease, and challenges our vaccines (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/how-contagious-is-delta-how-long-are-you-infectious-is-it-more-deadly-a-quick-guide-to-the-latest-science-165538

Times Magazine

This Christmas, Give the Navman Gift That Never Stops Giving – Safety

Protect your loved one’s drives with a Navman Dash Cam.  This Christmas don’t just give – prote...

Yoto now available in Kmart and The Memo, bringing screen-free storytelling to Australian families

Yoto, the kids’ audio platform inspiring creativity and imagination around the world, has launched i...

Kool Car Hire

Turn Your Four-Wheeled Showstopper into Profit (and Stardom) Have you ever found yourself stand...

EV ‘charging deserts’ in regional Australia are slowing the shift to clean transport

If you live in a big city, finding a charger for your electric vehicle (EV) isn’t hard. But driv...

How to Reduce Eye Strain When Using an Extra Screen

Many professionals say two screens are better than one. And they're not wrong! A second screen mak...

Is AI really coming for our jobs and wages? Past predictions of a ‘robot apocalypse’ offer some clues

The robots were taking our jobs – or so we were told over a decade ago. The same warnings are ...

The Times Features

What’s been happening on the Australian stock market today

What moved, why it moved and what to watch going forward. 📉 Market overview The benchmark S&am...

The NDIS shifts almost $27m a year in mental health costs alone, our new study suggests

The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) was set up in 2013[1] to help Australians with...

Why Australia Is Ditching “Gym Hop Culture” — And Choosing Fitstop Instead

As Australians rethink what fitness actually means going into the new year, a clear shift is emergin...

Everyday Radiance: Bevilles’ Timeless Take on Versatile Jewellery

There’s an undeniable magic in contrast — the way gold catches the light while silver cools it down...

From The Stage to Spotify, Stanhope singer Alyssa Delpopolo Reveals Her Meteoric Rise

When local singer Alyssa Delpopolo was crowned winner of The Voice last week, the cheers were louder...

How healthy are the hundreds of confectionery options and soft drinks

Walk into any big Australian supermarket and the first thing that hits you isn’t the smell of fr...

The Top Six Issues Australians Are Thinking About Today

Australia in 2025 is navigating one of the most unsettled periods in recent memory. Economic pre...

How Net Zero Will Adversely Change How We Live — and Why the Coalition’s Abandonment of That Aspiration Could Be Beneficial

The drive toward net zero emissions by 2050 has become one of the most defining political, socia...

Menulog is closing in Australia. Could food delivery soon cost more?

It’s been a rocky road for Australia’s food delivery sector. Over the past decade, major platfor...