The Times Australia
Tuesday, March 18, 2025 5:05:53 AM
The Times Australia

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Labor faces risk of Victorians using federal poll as referendum on both Allan and Albanese governments

  • Written by Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra



The weekend byelection in the outer suburban seat of Werribee saw the widely-anticipated slap-in-the-face to Victorian Labor, which is absolutely on the nose. The question is: to what degree were electors venting against federal Labor too?

With an abundance of caution, the Albanese government would do best to assume it was being given a substantial kick.

Even if the largest slice of the about 10% two-party swing was prompted by state factors, including the sheer arrogance of the byelection  (a state treasurer departing mid-term), we know federal Labor is doing badly in Victoria.

There is certainly enough of a message in the result in Werribee (which on present numbers Labor is expected to just retain) to flag a potential serious erosion of federal seats come the national election.

One challenge for federal Labor is to turn Victorian voters’ attention away from state matters, to focus squarely on the choice between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.

Labor needs to minimise the extent to which Victorians use the federal election to take out their anger towards the Allan government. So far, only the Werribee voters have had the chance to get some of that frustration out of their systems. The federal opposition will seek to milk feelings about the Allan government.

Regardless of that, we know Dutton has become more acceptable in Victoria than he was a couple of years ago.

As things stand, Labor is set to lose federal seats in this state where the Liberals have struggled, and the state Liberal organisation has been a shambles. It is a matter of how many.

While the Liberals will be delighted with the Werribee result, the hardheads will note that although the Labor primary vote fell nearly 17% the Liberal vote only rose 3.7%. Partly this might reflect the fact that in Labor heartland, the disillusioned voters wanted to protest but not jump the aisle to the Liberals. Nevertheless, there is the message, applicable federally, that the Liberals need to be attracting more primary votes, not just relying on Labor losing them to independents and small parties.

Once again, we see reflected in this byelection the relative collapse of the two party system. Labor polled 28.7% of the primary vote; the Liberals 29%. fewer than six in ten voters supported one of the major parties.

Depending on your viewpoint, you can see the decline of the two party system as a portend of future instability in our politics, or the continued indication of a fresh new direction. Federally, the present money is on minority government.

In Saturday’s other Victorian byelection, the Liberals wrested the inner city seat of Prahran from the Greens. There was no Labor candidate.

The Greens, on 36.2% of the vote, attempt to take comfort that  the swing against them on primary votes was only 0.6%. But a loss is a loss, whatever the margin, and this setback, on top of those in the recent ACT and Queensland elections, must put fears into the party about the fate of the three Queensland federal seats it won in 2022.

With some Labor supporters deeply pessimistic and some Liberals wildly optimistic, both sides are trying to manage expectations  about where the election battle stands nationally.

Labor finds some heart from comparing Newspoll’s now and at comparable points before changes of government.

The Dutton opposition in the first Newspoll of 2025 was on 51% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, in the first Newspoll of 1996, the Howard opposition had a two-party vote of 54%.

Newspoll in August 2007 (about 100 days before  the election)  saw the Rudd opposition on 56%. In  May 2013, with about 100 days to voting, the Abbott opposition was polling 55% in two-party terms. The first Newspoll of 2022 had the Albanese opposition on 56%.

Governor Michele Bullock will deliver the next big marker on the political calendar when the Reserve Bank announces next week whether it will cut interest rates.

If it does, there will be a frenzy of speculation about the election being held in April, which would mean scrapping the scheduled March 25 budget.

Quite how Albanese would explain this, when he and his ministers say every other day how much work is being done on that budget, is unclear. Those in Labor who are in the camp of a May election say the government needs time for an interest rate cut to flow through.

Only one man determines the timing, and he’s on record recently saying the date remained “fluid”.

Read more https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-labor-faces-risk-of-victorians-using-federal-poll-as-referendum-on-both-allan-and-albanese-governments-249457

Peter Dutton on why he’s not Australia’s Trump – ‘I’m my own person’

On current opinion polls, we are looking at a very close race at the May election. As voting day draws near, P...

The Times Features

Riding in Style: Must-Have Bogs Gumboots for Equestrians

Key Highlights Bogs Gumboots offer superior comfort, durability, and waterproof protection, making them ideal for the demanding conditions of equestrian life. Their contoured...

How to Tell If You Need a New Roof in Melbourne Due to Leaks

Picture waking up in the early hours of the morning to the sound of mellow drips at your home, heralding the tremendous downpour of the previous night. As you look above, you not...

Rise of the Grey WoMad: Older Women Travelling Solo

Older Australian women are increasingly ditching their families and choosing to travel solo creating a new type of traveller known as the ‘Grey WoMad’. Budget travel platform ...

Why You Need an Expert Electrician for Your Business’s Electrical Upgrades and Repairs

When it comes to maintaining and upgrading your business’s electrical systems, it’s essential to call in a professional. Electrical work in any commercial setting requires the ex...

Why Is It Crucial to Have a Building Inspection Done Before Buying a New Home?

Purchasing a new property is a big financial decision that can impact your future for years. Whether you are a first-time buyer or an investor, good or bad, it is essential to en...

Online Application for Sick Leave Certificate: Understanding When and How to Secure One

A sick leave certificate is an official document issued by a healthcare professional to verify an individual's inability to attend work due to illness. It typically includes the ...

Times Magazine

The Ultimate Guide to Apple Watch Faces & Trending Wallpapers

In today’s digital world, personalization is everything. Your smartwatch isn’t just a timepiece—it’s an extension of your style. Thanks to innovative third-party developers, customizing your Apple Watch has reached new heights with stunning designs...

The Power of Digital Signage in Modern Marketing

In a fast-paced digital world, businesses must find innovative ways to capture consumer attention. Digital signage has emerged as a powerful solution, offering dynamic and engaging content that attracts and retains customers. From retail stores to ...

Why Cloud Computing Is the Future of IT Infrastructure for Enterprises

Globally, cloud computing is changing the way business organizations manage their IT infrastructure. It offers cheap, flexible and scalable solutions. Cloud technologies are applied in organizations to facilitate procedures and optimize operation...

First Nations Writers Festival

The First Nations Writers Festival (FNWF) is back for its highly anticipated 2025 edition, continuing its mission to celebrate the voices, cultures and traditions of First Nations communities through literature, art and storytelling. Set to take ...

Improving Website Performance with a Cloud VPS

Websites represent the new mantra of success. One slow website may make escape for visitors along with income too. Therefore it's an extra offer to businesses seeking better performance with more scalability and, thus represents an added attracti...

Why You Should Choose Digital Printing for Your Next Project

In the rapidly evolving world of print media, digital printing has emerged as a cornerstone technology that revolutionises how businesses and creative professionals produce printed materials. Offering unparalleled flexibility, speed, and quality, d...

LayBy Shopping