The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Where do Afghanistan's refugees go?

  • Written by Tazreena Sajjad, Senior Professorial Lecturer of Global Governance, Politics and Security, American University School of International Service

Images of thousands of Afghans desperately trying to flee[1] their country following a hasty U.S. withdrawal[2] have provoked an international outcry.

As of Aug. 22, 2021, some 6,000 U.S. troops[3] were working to evacuate U.S. military, American citizens and Afghans[4] who are approved for Special Immigrant Visas[5]. SIVs are a special program to protect Afghans who risked their lives working for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Germany[6], France[7], Italy[8] and the U.K.[9] are conducting smaller evacuation efforts for their nationals and some Afghans.

The pace of these poorly planned evacuations has been slow. They are taking place amid chaos in Kabul, where crowds are being confronted by violence from members of the now-ruling Taliban[10] and U.S. forces[11] and facing checkpoints that are near-impossible to pass.

Shaharzad Akbar, who leads the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, called the situation[12] “failure upon failure.”

As a scholar specializing in[13] forcible displacement and refugees, I see this harrowing scene unfolding within a broader context of Afghanistan’s long-standing displacement crisis. This includes an unequal sharing of refugees between the developed world and economically disadvantaged countries.

A muted US role

The U.S. Refugee Act of 1980[14] standardized the procedures for admitting refugees – people who have fled war, violence, conflict or persecution – and put in place a rigorous vetting process[15]. But over the past 40 years, U.S. acceptance rates for refugees worldwide have fallen significantly[16] – from 200,000 admitted in 1980 to less than 50,000 in 2019.

Over the past 20 years, the U.S. admitted[17] more than 20,000 Afghan refugees – an average of roughly 1,000 per year. But during the 2020-2021 fiscal year, just 11,800 refugees[18] from around the world settled in the U.S. – among them were only 495 Afghan Special Immigrant Visa recipients[19]. That number seems tiny compared to the approximately 20,000 Afghans[20] who are currently in the pipeline waiting for a SIV and the additional 70,000 Afghans[21] — including applicants and their immediate family members — who are eligible to apply.

Europe hosts few Afghan refugees

For decades, Afghans have also migrated or fled to Europe. Between 2015-2016, 300,000[22] of them arrived on the continent. They were the second-largest group of refugees and asylum-seekers after Syrians. Asylum seekers are people seeking refugee status, but whose claim has yet to be evaluated.

The Afghan population across the European continent remains small and unevenly distributed[23]. Up until the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021, many Afghans were facing deportations[24]. Germany is the largest European host, followed by Austria, France and Sweden.

For the first three months of 2021[25] about 7,000 Afghans were granted permanent or temporary legal status in the European Union. They are distributed between Greece, France, Germany and Italy, with smaller Afghan contingents in other EU states.

Australia – based on its 2016 census – has approximately 47,000 Afghans who are permanent residents[26], some of whom began arriving as early as 1979. Approximately another 4,200 Afghans[27] have received temporary protected status[28].

Displaced within Afghanistan

This still leaves an enormous number of Afghans who are displaced without a permanent home. More than half a million[29] have already been displaced by the violence so far in 2021 according to the U.N. refugee agency. Some 80% of nearly a quarter of a million Afghans forced to flee since the end of May are women and children.

As of 2021 and prior to the current crisis, at least 3.5 million Afghans[30] remained uprooted within Afghanistan because of violence, political unrest, poverty, climate crisis and lack of economic opportunity.

Where do Afghanistan's refugees go? Afghan refugees enter into Pakistan through a border crossing point in Chaman while a Pakistani army soldier stands guard. AP Photo/uncredited photographer[31]

Afghan refugees in Pakistan

The vast majority of Afghan refugees do not settle in the West.

Pakistan, which shares a 1,640-mile land border with Afghanistan[32], has long absorbed the largest number of Afghan refugees even though it is not a party to the 1951 Refugee Convention or the 1967 Protocol[33]. Within two years of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan[34], following the conflict ignited by the rise of the Mujahideen[35], 1.5 million Afghans had become refugees[36]. By 1986, nearly five million Afghans[37] had fled to Pakistan and Iran.

Since March 2002, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, had repatriated nearly 3.2 million Afghans[38], but in April 2021, the United Nations reported[39] that more than 1.4 million Afghan refugees[40] remained in Pakistan due to ongoing violence, unemployment and political turbulence in Afghanistan.

Iran also remains a significant host for Afghans[41], with nearly 800,000 registered refugees and at least two million more who are unregistered. Smaller numbers of Afghan refugees[42] and asylum-seekers are in India (15,689), Indonesia (7,692) and Malaysia (2,478).

Turkey – the world’s largest refugee host[43], with over 3.8 million registered Syrian refugees – has 980 registered Afghan refugees and 116,000 Afghan asylum-seekers[44].

Where do Afghanistan's refugees go? Despite the presence of the Taliban, a group of protesters march with Afghan flags during the country’s Independence Day rally in Kabul, Afghanistan on Aug. 19, 2021. Haroon Sabawoon/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images[45]

As it stands today

The latest figures from the AP show that more than 47,000 Afghan civilians and at least 66,000 Afghan military and police forces have died in the 20-year-old Afghanistan war[46]

The security situation in the country had been deteriorating in recent years. According to Brown University’s Cost of War Project, an increasing numbers of Afghans have been killed as a result of crossfire, improvised explosive devices, assassinations by militant groups including the Taliban, night raids by U.S. and NATO forces and U.S.-led airstrikes[47].

Even prior to the Taliban takeover of Kabul, civilian casualties had risen by 29%[48] in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020. A U.N. report[49] from July 26, 2021 found a 37% increase in the number of women killed and injured, and a 23% increase in child casualties compared with the first quarter of 2020.

With the Taliban takeover of Kabul, there is a growing concern for the safety[50] of Afghanistan’s women and girls, ethnic minorities, journalists, government workers, educators and human rights activists. Many Afghans desperate to leave remain outside Kabul and far from any airport.

U.S. evacuations will likely end[51] once all Americans are out of Afghanistan. A few other western countries have committed to taking in small numbers of refugees, including Canada (20,000)[52] and the U.K. (20,000 over 5 years)[53].

Still, adoption of hard-line policies[54] and anti-refugee sentiments across much of Europe means that relatively few Afghans will find sanctuary on the continent. Austria[55] and Switzerland[56] have already refused to take in large numbers of Afghans. Turkey, already straining with refugees, said it does not want to become “Europe’s refugee warehouse[57].”

Other countries committing to take in Afghans temporarily in small numbers include Albania, Qatar, Costa Rica, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador and Colombia. Uganda, which already hosts 1.5 million refugees[58], mainly from South Sudan, has also agreed to take in 2,000 Afghans temporarily.

[Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter[59].]

Ultimately, most Afghans able to leave the country will do so not in an aircraft, but on foot into Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan, already strained by its own economic and political struggles[60], will once again likely be the largest host for the most recently displaced Afghans.

But given that border crossings in the region are difficult and dangerous, the vast majority of uprooted Afghans will remain within Afghanistan’s borders. Their considerable humanitarian needs, economic and political challenges, security concerns and resistance to the Taliban will shape the next chapter of the country’s history.

References

  1. ^ desperately trying to flee (www.theguardian.com)
  2. ^ hasty U.S. withdrawal (www.factcheck.org)
  3. ^ 6,000 U.S. troops (www.bbc.com)
  4. ^ working to evacuate U.S. military, American citizens and Afghans (www.nytimes.com)
  5. ^ Special Immigrant Visas (fas.org)
  6. ^ Germany (www.washingtonpost.com)
  7. ^ France (www.france24.com)
  8. ^ Italy (www.thelocal.it)
  9. ^ the U.K. (www.bbc.com)
  10. ^ violence from members of the now-ruling Taliban (www.theguardian.com)
  11. ^ U.S. forces (www.usnews.com)
  12. ^ called the situation (www.theguardian.com)
  13. ^ specializing in (scholar.google.com)
  14. ^ The U.S. Refugee Act of 1980 (www.archivesfoundation.org)
  15. ^ rigorous vetting process (www.unrefugees.org)
  16. ^ have fallen significantly (www.unhcr.org)
  17. ^ the U.S. admitted (www.cato.org)
  18. ^ 11,800 refugees (www.migrationpolicy.org)
  19. ^ only 495 Afghan Special Immigrant Visa recipients (www.wrapsnet.org)
  20. ^ 20,000 Afghans (www.cnn.com)
  21. ^ 70,000 Afghans (www.defenseone.com)
  22. ^ 300,000 (reliefweb.int)
  23. ^ remains small and unevenly distributed (www.statista.com)
  24. ^ many Afghans were facing deportations (www.washingtonpost.com)
  25. ^ the first three months of 2021 (ec.europa.eu)
  26. ^ 47,000 Afghans who are permanent residents (www.homeaffairs.gov.au)
  27. ^ 4,200 Afghans (www.homeaffairs.gov.au)
  28. ^ temporary protected status (humanrights.gov.au)
  29. ^ More than half a million (www.unhcr.org)
  30. ^ 3.5 million Afghans (news.un.org)
  31. ^ AP Photo/uncredited photographer (newsroom.ap.org)
  32. ^ a 1,640-mile land border with Afghanistan (www.nationalgeographic.org)
  33. ^ 1951 Refugee Convention or the 1967 Protocol (www.unhcr.org)
  34. ^ 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (www.theatlantic.com)
  35. ^ rise of the Mujahideen (link.springer.com)
  36. ^ had become refugees (www.fmreview.org)
  37. ^ five million Afghans (merip.org)
  38. ^ 3.2 million Afghans (www.unhcr.org)
  39. ^ the United Nations reported (www.unhcr.org)
  40. ^ 1.4 million Afghan refugees (reliefweb.int)
  41. ^ a significant host for Afghans (www.acaps.org)
  42. ^ Smaller numbers of Afghan refugees (www.cato.org)
  43. ^ the world’s largest refugee host (reporting.unhcr.org)
  44. ^ 980 registered Afghan refugees and 116,000 Afghan asylum-seekers (reliefweb.int)
  45. ^ Haroon Sabawoon/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
  46. ^ 20-year-old Afghanistan war (apnews.com)
  47. ^ crossfire, improvised explosive devices, assassinations by militant groups including the Taliban, night raids by U.S. and NATO forces and U.S.-led airstrikes (watson.brown.edu)
  48. ^ risen by 29% (unama.unmissions.org)
  49. ^ U.N. report (unama.unmissions.org)
  50. ^ concern for the safety (www.un.org)
  51. ^ U.S. evacuations will likely end (www.washingtonpost.com)
  52. ^ Canada (20,000) (www.reuters.com)
  53. ^ U.K. (20,000 over 5 years) (www.euronews.com)
  54. ^ adoption of hard-line policies (www.theguardian.com)
  55. ^ Austria (www.aljazeera.com)
  56. ^ Switzerland (www.reuters.com)
  57. ^ Europe’s refugee warehouse (t.co)
  58. ^ 1.5 million refugees (www.statista.com)
  59. ^ Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter (theconversation.com)
  60. ^ its own economic and political struggles (www.voanews.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/where-do-afghanistans-refugees-go-166316

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...

Troubleshooting Flickering Lights: A Comprehensive Guide for Homeowners

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Effectively addressing flickering lights in your home is more than just a matter of convenience; it's a pivotal aspect of both home safety and en...

My shins hurt after running. Could it be shin splints?

If you’ve started running for the first time, started again after a break, or your workout is more intense, you might have felt it. A dull, nagging ache down your shins after...

Metal Roof Replacement Cost Per Square Metre in 2025: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Homeowners

In recent years, the trend of installing metal roofs has surged across Australia. With their reputation for being both robust and visually appealing, it's easy to understand thei...

Why You’re Always Adjusting Your Bra — and What to Do Instead

Image by freepik It starts with a gentle tug, then a subtle shift, and before you know it, you're adjusting your bra again — in the middle of work, at dinner, even on the couch. I...

How to Tell If Your Eyes Are Working Harder Than They Should Be

Image by freepik Most of us take our vision for granted—until it starts to let us down. Whether it's squinting at your phone, rubbing your eyes at the end of the day, or feeling ...