How much can Jim Chalmers get out of the economic reform roundtable?

We’re now less than a month away from the start of the Albanese government’s “economic reform” (aka “productivity”) roundtable, but it has become quite hard to get a fix on exactly what this gathering will amount to.

The guest list for the August 19-21 summit is obviously tight, given the government decided it wanted the meeting to fit into the cabinet room (so avoiding a more extensive “talkfest”).

But excluding the states and territories from a meeting that discusses deregulation and taxation means major players in these policy areas are not in the room (the NSW treasurer, Daniel Mookhey, chair of the board of treasurers, is the only state government representative invited). Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he will meet state treasurers beforehand, but that doesn’t quite cover their omission.

The government has flagged that industrial relations isn’t on the table, although the unions will be at that table. Yet IR is a major issue in productivity, so that excludes a central area from discussion. The unions are being given a level of protection other players potentially do not have.

Tax reform is a central topic at the roundtable, the themes of which are productivity, budget sustainability and economic resilience. But the scope of what is up for serious consideration is limited.

The government is not willing to consider changing the GST, even if it is not formally ruling out it being canvassed.

When it was put to him that he opposed altering the GST, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told the ABC this week what he would not do was “go to an election and secure a majority because our government concentrated on cost-of-living measures in our first term […] and immediately we get elected and we say, we’re going to put up the price of everything that you buy.

"That is not something that’s tenable. That’s something which would have represented a breach of trust upon which we were elected on May 3rd.”

Rejecting an overhaul of the GST kyboshes, for better or worse, a major tax switch from our over-reliance on personal income tax to putting more of the tax burden on indirect tax. This is a change many tax experts advocate.

Despite the hype around the pre-roundtable discussion of broad tax reform, what appears likely to find favour with the government are tax changes affecting wealth (but excluding the family home) and the resources sector.

It remains unclear to what extent Chalmers will seek to define the outcome beforehand. That is: will he, after reviewing the submissions, go into the roundtable with a firm idea of what he wants to get out of it, and then see how much he can get over the “consensus” line?

Helpfully for everyone at the roundtable, the Productivity Commission is about to release a series of reports on various aspects of productivity, which will provide data and ideas.

These cover economic resilience, improving workforce skills and adaptability, harnessing digital technology, improving care delivery, and investing in the net zero transformation.

Meanwhile business, which felt it was made something of a patsy in the 2022 jobs and skills summit, with the government using that meeting to gain traction for what it already wanted to do, is being cautious this time.

Even before the formal announcement of the roundtable, it set up a group following the government’s nomination of productivity as a central priority for this term. The umbrella body’s first meeting was attended by more than 20 groups representing businesses of all sizes, universities and the investment community. This body is ongoing. It includes the Business Council of Australia, the Australian Industry Group, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Minerals Council of Australia and the Council of Small Business Organisations.

The umbrella body will put forward a suite of recommendations for the roundtable including on investment, innovation, reducing red tape, planning and approval processes, tax, education and employment.

We now have the full list of roundtable participants. It’s interesting for who’s there and who’s not. Ken Henry, of the seminal Henry taxation report – of which Chalmers has vivid memories from his days as a staffer of former treasurer Wayne Swan – will be present. Henry last week gave a strong presentation at the National Press Club about the pressing need for reform of the environment protection regime.

Also scoring an invitation is teal crossbencher Allegra Spender, who made tax reform one of her core issues last term. Spender is holding her own “tax reform roundtable” on Friday, with a who’s who of experts.

But left off the Treasurer’s invitation list list was the Minerals Council of Australia. This despite the fact that tax changes in the resources area seem a ripe area for discussion.