The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Pro-Trump candidate wins Poland’s presidential election – a bad omen for the EU, Ukraine and women

  • Written by Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia




Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.

The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated[1] the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%[2].

The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.

With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.

This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes[3] the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence[4] by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court.

Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women.

A rising Poland

For much of the post-second world war era, Poland has had limited European influence.

This is no longer the case. Poland’s economy has boomed since it joined the EU in 2004. It spends almost 5%[5] of its gross domestic product on defence, almost double what it spent in 2022 at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Poland now has a bigger army[6] than the United Kingdom, France and Germany. And living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan’s.

Along with Brexit, these changes have resulted in the EU’s centre of gravity shifting eastwards towards Poland. As a rising military and economic power of 37 million people, what happens in Poland will help shape Europe’s future.

Impacts on Ukraine

Poland’s new position in Europe is most clearly demonstrated by its central role in the fight to defend Ukraine against Russia.

This centrality was clearly demonstrated during the recent “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Kyiv, where Tusk joined[7] the leaders of Europe’s major powers – France, Germany and the UK – to bolster support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

However, Poland’s unqualified support for Ukraine will now be at risk because Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees[8] in his country and opposed Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and NATO[9].

Nawrocki was also backed[10] during his campaign by the Trump administration. Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security, said[11] at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland:

Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country.

Trump also hosted[12] Nawrocki in the Oval Office when he was merely a candidate for office. This was a significant deviation from standard US diplomatic protocol to stay out of foreign elections.

Nawrocki has not been as pro-Russia as some other global, MAGA-style politicians, but this is largely due to Poland’s geography and its difficult history with Russia. It has been repeatedly invaded across its eastern plains by Russian or Soviet troops. And along with Ukraine, Poland shares borders with the Russian client state of Belarus and Russia itself in Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised enclave on the Baltic Sea.

I experienced the proximity of these borders during fieldwork in Poland in 2023 when I travelled by car from Warsaw to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, via the Suwalki Gap[13].

This is the strategically important, 100-kilometre-long border between Poland and Lithuania[14], which connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and the EU to the south. It’s seen as a potential flashpoint if Russia were ever to close the gap and isolate the Baltic states.

Poland’s conservative nationalist politicians are therefore less Russia-friendly than those in Hungary or Slovakia. Nawrocki, for instance, does not support[15] cutting off weapons to Ukraine.

However, a Nawrocki presidency will still be more hostile to Ukraine and its interests. During the campaign, Nawrocki said[16] Zelensky “treats Poland badly”, echoing the type of language used by Trump himself.

Supporters of Karol Nawrocki hold a banner featuring a picture of the Oval Office meeting between US President Donald Trump and Nawrocki. Jarek Praszkiewicz/PAP/EPA

Poland divided

The high stakes in the election resulted in a record turnout[17] of almost 73%.

There was a stark choice in the election between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski[18].

Trzaskowski supported the liberalisation of Poland’s harsh abortion laws – abortion was effectively banned in Poland[19] under the Law and Justice government – and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples.

Rafal Trzaskowski and his wife Malgorzata Trzaskowska meet with local residents in Gdansk, Poland, towards the end of the campaign. Andrzej Jackowski/PAP/EPA

Nawrocki opposed these changes and will likely veto any attempt to implement them.

While the polls for the presidential runoff election had consistently shown a tight race, an Ipsos exit poll[20] published during the vote count demonstrated the social divisions now facing the country.

As in other recent global elections, women and those with higher formal education voted for the progressive candidate (Trzaskowski), while men and those with less formal education voted for the conservative (Nawrocki).

After the surprise success of the liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate[21] in the Romanian elections a fortnight ago, pro-EU forces were hoping for a similar result in Poland, as well.

That, for now, is a pipe dream and liberals across the continent will now need to negotiate a difficult relationship with a right-wing, Trumpian leader in the new beating heart of Europe.

References

  1. ^ defeated (www.theguardian.com)
  2. ^ 50.89 to 49.11% (polandelects.com)
  3. ^ anti-democratic changes (www.reuters.com)
  4. ^ eroding Poland’s judicial independence (www.theguardian.com)
  5. ^ almost 5% (www.nato.int)
  6. ^ bigger army (www.economist.com)
  7. ^ joined (www.lemonde.fr)
  8. ^ Ukrainian refugees (notesfrompoland.com)
  9. ^ NATO (notesfrompoland.com)
  10. ^ backed (www.nytimes.com)
  11. ^ said (abcnews.go.com)
  12. ^ hosted (x.com)
  13. ^ Suwalki Gap (www.aspistrategist.org.au)
  14. ^ Lithuania (www.lowyinstitute.org)
  15. ^ does not support (www.nytimes.com)
  16. ^ said (kyivindependent.com)
  17. ^ record turnout (www.theguardian.com)
  18. ^ Trzaskowski (www.theguardian.com)
  19. ^ banned in Poland (www.nytimes.com)
  20. ^ Ipsos exit poll (www.theguardian.com)
  21. ^ presidential candidate (www.france24.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/pro-trump-candidate-wins-polands-presidential-election-a-bad-omen-for-the-eu-ukraine-and-women-257617

Times Magazine

DIY Is In: How Aussie Parents Are Redefining Birthday Parties

When planning his daughter’s birthday, Rich opted for a DIY approach, inspired by her love for drawing maps and giving clues. Their weekend tradition of hiding treats at home sparked the idea, and with a pirate ship playground already chosen as t...

When Touchscreens Turn Temperamental: What to Do Before You Panic

When your touchscreen starts acting up, ignoring taps, registering phantom touches, or freezing entirely, it can feel like your entire setup is falling apart. Before you rush to replace the device, it’s worth taking a deep breath and exploring what c...

Why Social Media Marketing Matters for Businesses in Australia

Today social media is a big part of daily life. All over Australia people use Facebook, Instagram, TikTok , LinkedIn and Twitter to stay connected, share updates and find new ideas. For businesses this means a great chance to reach new customers and...

Building an AI-First Culture in Your Company

AI isn't just something to think about anymore - it's becoming part of how we live and work, whether we like it or not. At the office, it definitely helps us move faster. But here's the thing: just using tools like ChatGPT or plugging AI into your wo...

Data Management Isn't Just About Tech—Here’s Why It’s a Human Problem Too

Photo by Kevin Kuby Manuel O. Diaz Jr.We live in a world drowning in data. Every click, swipe, medical scan, and financial transaction generates information, so much that managing it all has become one of the biggest challenges of our digital age. Bu...

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Times Features

What Makes Certain Rings or Earrings Timeless Versus Trendy?

Timeless rings and earrings are defined by designs that withstand the test of time, quality craftsmanship, and versatility. Trendy pieces, on the other hand, often stand testimony ...

Italian Street Kitchen: A Nation’s Favourite with Expansion News on Horizon

Successful chef brothers, Enrico and Giulio Marchese, weigh in on their day-to-day at Australian foodie favourite, Italian Street Kitchen - with plans for ‘ambitious expansion’ to ...

What to Expect During a Professional Termite Inspection

Keeping a home safe from termites isn't just about peace of mind—it’s a vital investment in the structure of your property. A professional termite inspection is your first line o...

Booty and the Beasts - The Podcast

Cult TV Show Back with Bite as a Riotous New Podcast  The show that scandalised, shocked and entertained audiences across the country, ‘Beauty and the Beast’, has returned in ...

A Guide to Determining the Right Time for a Switchboard Replacement

At the centre of every property’s electrical system is the switchboard – a component that doesn’t get much attention until problems arise. This essential unit directs electrici...

Après Skrew: Peanut Butter Whiskey Turns Australia’s Winter Parties Upside Down

This August, winter in Australia is about to get a lot nuttier. Skrewball Whiskey, the cult U.S. peanut butter whiskey that’s taken the world by storm, is bringing its bold brand o...