Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one.
The New York Times Needle[1] gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. He’s estimated to have won Georgia (16 electoral votes) by 2.5% over Democrat Kamala Harris and North Carolina (16) by 3.3%.
Other key states have not yet been called, but Trump has an 85% probability of winning Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), a 71% chance to win Michigan (15), a 79% chance to win Wisconsin (ten) and an 83% chance to win Arizona (11). There are still no results from Nevada (six).
If Trump wins all the seven key states in which the “needle” favours him, he will win the Electoral College[2] by a 312–226 margin.
The needle’s popular vote projection also favours Trump by 1.2%. If Trump wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, it will be the first time Republicans have won both since 2004. In 2000 and 2016, Republicans won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.
The main reasons for Trump’s victory were Joe Biden’s unpopularity, the US economy being only just above average, and record illegal immigration during Biden’s term. I’ve mentioned all these factors in my previous US election articles.
Abortion was not the vote-shifter Democrats expected. In lower-turnout elections such as the 2022 midterms and byelections, Democrats have performed well owing to voters motivated by abortion. But in this high-turnout presidential election, abortion was marginalised.
Polls understated Trump across the board, though they were not as bad as they were in 2020. Using Nate Silver’s aggregate[3] of final polls, Trump outperformed his polls in the seven key states by two to three points. This is the third successive time that polls have underestimated Trump.
In the past, the Selzer Iowa poll has had outlier results that turned out to be accurate. This time the final Selzer poll[4] gave Harris a three-point lead in Iowa, but Trump will win by 13 points according to the needle’s forecast.
Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012, and Trump won it by one to three points in both 2016 and 2020. This year, Trump won Florida[5] by 56–43. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county by 55–44. At the 2016 presidential election[6], Hillary Clinton had defeated Trump in Miami-Dade by 63–34.
In some states that have nearly finished counting, such as Kentucky[7], there were swings across the board to Trump compared with 2020. It wasn’t just a rural swing to Trump as there were also swings in urban counties.
The New York Times said Trump had gained nine to ten points since 2020 in New York, New Jersey and Florida, all racially diverse states.
The only comfort for Democrats from this election is that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College “tipping point” state has almost disappeared, if the needle is right. Democrats will lose the popular vote by 1.2% but Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, by 2.2%. This will be a gap of 1.0%, down from nearly 3.9% in 2020.
Democrats and allied independents held a 51–49 Senate majority coming into this election, but they were defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up for election. Senators have six-year terms with two from each of the 50 states.
Republicans have gained the Senate[8] with a 51–42 lead over Democrats, after gaining West Virginia and Ohio from Democrats and defending Florida, Nebraska and Texas. Republicans lead Democrats in four more Senate races, so they could win a 55–45 Senate majority.
All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years. Republicans currently have a 183–155 lead over Democrats. A majority requires 218 seats.
References
- ^ New York Times Needle (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ he will win the Electoral College (www.270towin.com)
- ^ Nate Silver’s aggregate (www.natesilver.net)
- ^ final Selzer poll (theconversation.com)
- ^ Trump won Florida (edition.cnn.com)
- ^ 2016 presidential election (en.wikipedia.org)
- ^ such as Kentucky (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ gained the Senate (www.nytimes.com)
