Wed Sep 18

The harder I work, the luckier I get? What coaches, athletes and fans need to understand about luck in sport

Written by: Steven Rynne, Associate Professor, Sports Coaching; Affiliate, UQ Poche Centre for Indigenous Health, The University of Queensland

In the world of elite sport, where everything is planned down to the last minute detail, surprisingly few are prepared to acknowledge the inherent role of luck in the outcomes of sporting contests.

It is surprising because luck is a factor that has the potential to affect the outcomes of competition. It can be the difference between a premiership and an early finals exit, or a gold medal and no medal at all.

It is also surprising because the notion of luck is ingrained in so many areas of sport and society – through common actions (fingers crossed, or wearing “lucky socks”^[1]), sayings (wishing competitors “good luck”), and religious connections (prayers to various gods of luck or fortune).

Even if athletes, coaches and fans do not want to outwardly acknowledge it, luck is actually part of what makes sport so compelling.

While stronger competitors and teams tend to win, weaker teams or athletes know they still have a chance to snatch victory based on something more than skill alone.

The harder I work, the luckier I get

Presumably, part of the reason that coaches and athletes in particular do not want to outwardly acknowledge the role of luck is that they spend most of their waking hours reducing the possible influence of luck (and increasing the array of things that are perceived as being under their control).

This matches well with the variously-attributed maxim “the harder I work, the luckier I get ^[2]”.

But it’s not that simple.

Take injuries for example. Coaches and sport scientists use a variety of training and recovery activities to prepare athletes for the rigours of competition.

But as elite athletes push their bodies to the limits ^[3], they are more susceptible to injuries.

The timing and severity of injuries can drastically alter careers and seasons.

A key player getting injured before a crucial match can shift the balance of power – cricket fans will never forget Australian bowler Glenn McGrath rolling his ankle on a stray cricket ball ^[4] in a pre-game warmup, which affected the outcome of the 2005 Ashes series.

Similarly, avoiding injuries can be seen as fortunate for those who manage to stay fit. Take former NRL champion Cameron Smith ^[5], the only player to have surpassed the 400-game milestone.

Life’s great lottery: birth

Despite often having similar training regimes, some athletes in the same sports seem to be more or less lucky than their compatriots.

This can be partly attributed to the luck involved in life’s great lottery – birth.

There is great evidence supporting the advantages in sport that come with having lucky genetics.

Think about Simone Biles’ height and power ^[6], having a lucky birth date (known as the relative age effect ^[7]), birthplace (the birthplace effect ^[8]), and other fortunate circumstances (socio-economic status ^[9] or sibling order ^[10]).

External unpredictability

Luck also exists beyond the individual and their circumstances.

For example, unpredictability in physical environments, such as rain delaying matches, wind affecting ball trajectories and extreme temperatures impacting player performance.

Athletes and teams often have little control over these conditions, and a result can sometimes come down to a matter of luck – a ball bouncing one way and not the other, or a gust of wind for one player and not their rival.

The postponement ^[11] of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games is a terrific example of this.

An injured or young competitor who was able to make the 2021 event may have considered the delay a fortunate circumstance. But an older athlete who didn’t have the capacity to stretch out their career for an additional year may have been very unlucky.

Getting ‘lady luck’ on your side

In elite sports, the difference in skill between contestants can be razor thin – it is the best of the best.

The subsequent suggestion is that luck therefore has the potential to play an increasingly important role ^[12].

This significant and under-appreciated role of luck poses a number of challenges for coaches.

Because it’s almost impossible for an athlete to train to develop luck like they develop a skill or physical attribute, coaches tend to focus on:

Foregrounding process and backgrounding outcome: The importance of outcomes in elite sport is unquestionable.

However, quality coaches emphasise the processes that are most likely to lead to a positive outcome, rather than focusing on the outcome itself.

Even more specifically, the best coaches concentrate their attention (and that of their players) on the things they have most influence over, such as skills, preparation, and decision-making, rather than things they do not (like a coin toss, random bounces and deflections, poorly timed injuries or equipment failures).

Training and recovery: Coaches plan for high level training that accounts for as many performance factors as possible, including biophysical (physical capacities of the athlete) and psychosocial (knowing themselves and working with others).

They also try to fully leverage certain inherent forms of luck such as capitalising on genetics through talent identification and training.

Avoiding overtraining ^[13] is another approach that coaches take to reduce the chances of bad luck through injuries.

Train for unpredictability: As well as generally emphasising quality repetitions for their athletes in training, contemporary coaches also regularly introduce variable practices ^[14], scenario-based disruptions, and natural variations in the physical environment.

This not only provides players with opportunities to practice their core skills, it gives them opportunities to practice responding in positive ways to good luck (“seize the moment”) and bad luck (refocusing after freak occurrences).

Balancing planning with instinct: Coaches work with their athletes to develop comprehensive game plans and a variety of contingency plans for competition.

However, coaches will also often support their athletes to deviate from these established plans to “roll the dice” when appropriate. This typically involves coaches giving their players licence to take calculated risks (such as taking a long-range shot from a difficult angle in soccer) when certain circumstances arise.

There’s no escaping luck in sports

While skill and preparation are indispensable, the role of luck in elite sports is undeniable.

From Steven Bradbury’s serendipity ^[15] at the 2002 Winter Olympics to St Kilda’s unfavourable bounce ^[16] at the end of the drawn AFL grand final in 2010, luck has almost certainly impacted all athletes at some stage of their careers.

Luck adds an element of unpredictability, makes sports thrilling and, at times, heartbreakingly capricious.