The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Doing less in the Middle East

  • Written by Jared Mondschein, Director of Research, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Prior to the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan posited[1] that the Middle East had been “quieter than it has been for decades”.

This is obviously no longer the case. On the contrary, the heart-wrenching state of the region has inflamed tensions and inspired generation-defining protests across the world.

This unrest has led many to wonder if the Biden administration’s Middle East policies will ultimately undermine[2] the president’s re-election campaign against former president Donald Trump in November.

It ultimately may. But even if the occupant of the White House changes, US policy toward the region largely will not. This is because Biden and Trump will both do everything possible to attain what Sullivan had hoped for: an ultimately quieter Middle East.

Bipartisan support for coalition-building

No single US initiative will be more crucial to securing a quieter Middle East than the boosting of ties between regional partners. The groundwork has already been laid through the Abraham Accords[3], the Arab-Israeli normalisation agreements initiated by the Trump administration and embraced by the Biden administration.

The fruits of such efforts became apparent when a diverse coalition – featuring the US, France, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel — worked together to down 300 Iranian projectiles launched at Israel on April 13. It was the first direct attack by Tehran against Israel in their decades-long shadow war.

The coalition’s joint response marked dramatic progress towards a long-term and bipartisan US goal for the Middle East: a level of regional co-operation and stabilisation that will finally allow for a decreased US footprint.

As much as Trump may not have appreciated[4] certain US alliances as much as his predecessors, it is safe to assume that whoever occupies the White House next year will likely seek to build on these regional alliances. There are a number of reasons for this.

Missiles in a parade in Tehran.
Missiles are carried on trucks during an Army Day parade at a military base in northern Tehran in April. Vahid Salemi/AP

Iran’s actions remain unchanged

First, the scope and severity of Iran’s destabilising conduct in the region has only increased.

Iranian proxy militant groups across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza have displayed unprecedented levels of aggression in recent years. It’s debatable[5] whether Iran was fully aware of Hamas’ attack on October 7, but Tehran undeniably continues to financially support the group.

Iran has been no less aggressive in its own conduct. In addition to its unprecedented attack on Israel in April, this has included:

Israeli-Arab ties persist

Second, Iran’s conduct has undoubtedly contributed to stronger ties[6] between Israel and the Arab world. Such ties have persisted – albeit more quietly[7] since the start of the war in Gaza.

Jordan’s King Hussein, who rules over a mostly Palestinian population, may be a vociferous critic of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, but he nonetheless benefits[8] from record levels of Israeli gas and desalinised water going to his energy-poor and water-scarce country.

The Egyptian economy is so reliant on Israeli energy[9] that Egyptians endured rolling blackouts[10] when Israel briefly cut gas exports at the start of the war.

The UAE and Israel have only deepened their commercial, political and military links after their new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement[11] went into effect last year.

While the UAE has repeatedly condemned Israel for its actions in Gaza, bilateral trade actually increased[12] by 7% in the first quarter of 2024.

Both Trump and Biden want out of the Middle East

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, both Republicans and Democrats agree on the need to shift US attention and resources to the Indo-Pacific region. This is not lost on US partners in the Middle East.

This is why the Biden administration both endorsed and continued two of the Trump administration’s top diplomatic initiatives in the region — the Abraham Accords and the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The reason is the longstanding, bipartisan sentiment that the US should not expend further resources — or, even worse, lose more US lives — in the Middle East.

On Gaza, Trump has urged[13] Israel to wrap up its operations, saying:

Israel has to be very careful, because you’re losing a lot of the world, you’re losing a lot of support.

The Biden administration’s public and private urgings for Israeli restraint in Gaza make clear it also has little interest in being further enmeshed in the Middle East.

No matter who wins in November, both Trump and Biden would be vexed if Israel and Hamas’ war continued in January 2025. They would also be equally concerned if Hamas resumed attacks on Israel. But neither wants to expend any more than the bare minimum of political capital to resolve the situation.

In an era in which the US is producing[14] more of its own energy and US fears of terrorism[15] are decreasing, American citizens and politicians alike would much prefer its allies in the Middle East take care of their own security.

US Marines in Baghdad.
US Marines on watch at the US embassy compound in Baghdad, Iraq, in 2020. Kyle Talbot/US Marine Corps handout/EPA

The US role in the region remains integral

Despite this desire for the US to pull back from the region, the next president still has a critical role to play.

The normalisation of Saudi-Israeli relations[16], for example, is undoubtedly the most important goal of the Abraham Accords. And this will prove challenging without a binding US security guarantee for Saudi Arabia, a Saudi-US civil nuclear agreement, and increased US support for an independent Palestinian state.

The US military presence in the region will also continue to prove integral to uniting the diverse coalition of countries countering Iran’s increasing influence. After all, it was the US Central Command’s extensive co-ordination that enabled the international response to Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel.

A future US role in the region could perhaps best be described as “leading from behind[17]” – though no US president has said or likely ever will say that explicitly.

Instead, the winner of November’s election will publicly champion regional “stability”. And on this front, bolstering a regional coalition will remain the primary strategy – and could, ultimately, be the foundation for peace.

This essay is based on an excerpt from the US Studies Centre’s recent publication, Red Book | Blue Book: A guide to the next US administration[18].

References

  1. ^ posited (www.foreignaffairs.com)
  2. ^ undermine (www.theguardian.com)
  3. ^ Abraham Accords (www.state.gov)
  4. ^ appreciated (www.reuters.com)
  5. ^ debatable (edition.cnn.com)
  6. ^ stronger ties (www.timesofisrael.com)
  7. ^ more quietly (www.reuters.com)
  8. ^ benefits (foreignpolicy.com)
  9. ^ Israeli energy (www.voanews.com)
  10. ^ rolling blackouts (english.alarabiya.net)
  11. ^ new Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (www.moec.gov.ae)
  12. ^ increased (www.reuters.com)
  13. ^ urged (www.israelhayom.com)
  14. ^ producing (www.cfr.org)
  15. ^ fears of terrorism (globalaffairs.org)
  16. ^ normalisation of Saudi-Israeli relations (arabcenterdc.org)
  17. ^ leading from behind (www.hoover.org)
  18. ^ Red Book | Blue Book: A guide to the next US administration (www.ussc.edu.au)

Read more https://theconversation.com/no-matter-who-wins-both-biden-and-trump-can-likely-agree-on-one-thing-doing-less-in-the-middle-east-231604

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says

Over the next decade, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire[1]. The Tesla board recently proposed a US$1 trillion (A$1.5 trillion) compensation plan, if Musk ca...

NSW has a new fashion sector strategy – but a sustainable industry needs a federally legislated response

The New South Wales government recently announced the launch of the NSW Fashion Sector Strategy, 2025–28[1]. The strategy, developed in partnership with the Australian Fashion ...

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...