The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

How risky is turbulence on a plane? How worried should I be?

  • Written by Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University
How risky is turbulence on a plane? How worried should I be?

The Singapore Airlines turbulence incident[1] that has sadly left one person dead and others hospitalised has made many of us think about the risks of air travel.

We’ll hear more in coming days about how the aircraft came to drop so suddenly on its route from London to Singapore earlier this week, injuring passengers and crew, before making an emergency landing in Thailand.

But thankfully, these types of incidents are rare[2], and much less-common[3] than injuries from other types of transport.

So why do we sometimes think the risk of getting injured while travelling by plane is higher than it really is?

How common are turbulence injuries?

Turbulence[4] is caused by[5] the irregular movement of air, leading to passengers and crew experiencing abrupt sideways and vertical jolts.

In the case of the Singapore Airlines flight, this type of turbulence is thought to be a severe example of “clear-air turbulence[6]”, which can occur without warning. There are several other types.

About 25 in-flight turbulence injuries are reported[7] to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau each year, although it is thought many more are un-reported. Some of these reported injuries are serious, including broken bones and head injuries. Passengers being thrown up and out of their seat during turbulence is one of the most common type of head injury on a plane.

Other injuries from turbulence are caused by contact with flying laptops, or other unsecured items.

In one example[8] of clear-air turbulence that came without warning, cabin crew, passengers and meal trolleys hit the ceiling, and landed heavily back on the floor. Serious injuries included bone fractures, lacerations, neck and back strains, a dislocated shoulder and shattered teeth. Almost all of those seriously injured did not have their seat belts fastened.

But we need to put this into perspective. In the year to January 2024, there were more than 36 million[9] passengers on international flights to Australia. In the year to February 2024, there were more than 58 million[10] passengers on domestic flights.

So while such incidents grab the headlines, they are exceedingly rare.

Why do we think flying is riskier than it is?

When we hear about this recent Singapore Airlines incident, it’s entirely natural to have a strong emotional reaction. We might have imagined the terror we might feel if we were on the aircraft at the time.

But our emotional response alters our perception[11] of the risk and leads us to think these rare incidents are more common than they really are.

Thinking, Fast and Slow
Penguin Press[12] There is a vast body of literature addressing the numerous factors[13] that influence how individuals perceive risk and the cognitive biases we are all subject to that mislead us. Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman[14] covers them in his bestselling book Thinking, Fast and Slow[15]. He describes the way we respond to risks is not rational, but driven by emotion. Kahneman also highlights the fact that our brains are not wired to make sense of extremely small risks. So these types of risks – such as the chance of serious injury or death from in-flight turbulence – are hard for us to make sense of. The more unusual an event is, and this was a very unusual event, Kahneman says the more impact it makes on our psyche and the more likely we are to overestimate the risk. Of course, the more unusual the event, the more likely[16] it is for it to be in the media, amplifying this effect. Similarly, the easier it is to imagine an event[17], the more it affects our perception and the more likely we are to respond to an event as if it were much more likely to occur. How can we make sense of the risk? One way to make sense of activities with small, hard-to-understand risks is by comparing their risks to the risks of more familiar activities. If we do this, the data shows very clearly that it is much more risky[18] to drive a car or ride a motorbike than to travel by plane. While events such as the Singapore Airlines incident are devastating and stir up lots of emotions, it’s important to recognise how our emotions can mislead us to over-estimate the risk of this happening again, or to us. Apart from the stress and anxiety this provokes, overestimating the risks of particular activities may lead us to make bad decisions that actually put us at greater risk of harm. References^ turbulence incident (www.abc.net.au)^ are rare (www.atsb.gov.au)^ less-common (www.aihw.gov.au)^ Turbulence (theconversation.com)^ is caused by (www.atsb.gov.au)^ clear-air turbulence (www.theguardian.com)^ are reported (www.atsb.gov.au)^ one example (www.atsb.gov.au)^ more than 36 million (www.bitre.gov.au)^ more than 58 million (www.bitre.gov.au)^ alters our perception (psycnet.apa.org)^ Penguin Press (www.penguin.com.au)^ numerous factors (theconversation.com)^ Daniel Kahneman (www.nobelprize.org)^ Thinking, Fast and Slow (www.penguin.com.au)^ more likely (psycnet.apa.org)^ imagine an event (www.sciencedirect.com)^ more risky (www.aihw.gov.au)

Read more https://theconversation.com/how-risky-is-turbulence-on-a-plane-how-worried-should-i-be-230665

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

NSW has a new fashion sector strategy – but a sustainable industry needs a federally legislated response

The New South Wales government recently announced the launch of the NSW Fashion Sector Strategy, 2025–28[1]. The strategy, developed in partnership with the Australian Fashion ...

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...

There’s a new vaccine for pneumococcal disease in Australia. Here’s what to know

The Australian government announced last week there’s a new vaccine[1] for pneumococcal disease on the National Immunisation Program for all children. This vaccine replaces pr...