The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
Times Media

.

Iran is gaining credibility in the Muslim world and feeling emboldened. This doesn’t bode well for the region

  • Written by Shahram Akbarzadeh, Convenor of the Middle East Studies Forum (MESF), and Acting Director the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University

Iran’s leadership has been a direct beneficiary of the months-long war in Gaza. With every missile that Israel fires on Gaza, every US veto of a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution, and every arrest of an anti-war protester on American university campuses, Iran’s rejection of the US-dominated world order gains more credibility in the Muslim world.

The ruling clerical regime in Iran has built its foreign policy on the pillar of anti-Americanism, rejecting what it frames as the “injustice” of US domination and “bullying[1]” of other countries. Washington’s continued support for Israel’s war on Gaza in the face of an increasing international backlash has only reinforced this narrative.

While the US has tried to backtrack and signal that humanitarian considerations should guide Israel’s conduct of the war, the damage to US credibility has been done. Many around the world – and specifically in Muslim countries – do not see the belated US warnings to Israel as genuine.

And Tehran’s message of anti-Americanism is resonating[2] with large segments of the public in the Muslim world.

In one regional opinion survey[3] in late October, for instance, just 7% of respondents said the US had a positive impact on the war, compared to 40% who viewed Iran’s role as positive.

And in December, the highly respected Arab Barometer[4] reported that approval ratings for the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had surpassed those of the Saudi crown prince and Emirati president.

This change in Iran’s standing in the region is being watched with concern by the political elite in the neighbourhood.

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressing a crowd.
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for increased pressure on Israel during an address to teachers on May 1. Iran's Supreme Leader Office/EPA

What Iran sought to achieve by attacking Israel

Iran’s image has been further enhanced by the fact it is the only Muslim state to attack Israel against the backdrop of public outrage over the war in Gaza.

The Iranian missile and drone attack[5] on Israel on April 13 was calibrated to achieve two key objectives.

First, Iran’s leaders sought to preserve the country’s image as the self-appointed head of the “axis of resistance[6]”, comprised of its proxies in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and other militia groups in Iraq and Syria.

Houthi supporters rally against the US and Israel in Yemen’s capital on April 19. Osamah Abdulrahman/AP

Iran also wanted to demonstrate the effectiveness of its deterrence model, which is based on the threat of retaliation against Israeli aggression through its proxy actors and expanding missile and drone technology.

Coming two weeks after the Israeli attack on its diplomatic mission in Damascus[7], Iran could not afford to outsource its response to its proxies. While Iran was clearly not ready to start a war with Israel, not responding in-kind to the Israeli attack would have made it look weak and seriously diminished its standing among its allies and proxy groups.

But Iran’s leaders sought to minimise the damage and mitigate the risk of escalation by warning Israel of its attack in advance through intermediaries. This way, Iran could save face without getting embroiled in an all-out war.

Iran’s second objective was to demonstrate to the world that it has the drone and missile technology to hit back at Israel, if it chooses.

For more than a decade, Iran has showcased its missiles during annual military parades to support its claim it can hit Israel if threatened. Its attack last month involved more than 300 drones and missiles. Notwithstanding the fact the damage was minimal, the attack was proof Iran now has the capacity to inflict pain on Israel.

A missile on display with a sign reading
A missile on display with a sign reading Vahid Salemi/AP

Israel’s limited response to Iran suggests that war has been averted, much to the relief of neighbouring countries. But the long-term implications are more favourable for Iran. This show of strength has likely helped its rejectionist foreign policy find receptive ears in the Muslim world and beyond.

When Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Pakistan[8] on April 23, for example, he was greeted like a celebrity. This was ironic as, earlier this year, Iran and Pakistan had engaged in tit-for-tat aerial attacks[9].

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, left, walks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, left, walks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during a welcome ceremony in Islamabad in late April. Pakistan Prime Minister's Office/AP

The two countries agreed[10] to boost bilateral trade to US$10 billion (A$15 billion) a year, about five times the current level. They also released a joint statement calling on the UN Security Council to take action against Israel[11], saying it had “illegally” targeted neighbouring countries and foreign diplomatic compounds.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also offered[12] a message of support to Iran, saying:

China noted Iran’s statement that its action was restrained and was an act of self-defence in response to the attack on its embassy.

What this could mean for the region

The implications of a more emboldened Iran for the region are severe. The Iranian authorities feel vindicated by the events of the last seven months. This means their anti-US and anti-Israel rhetoric will remain staunch as ever.

Iran’s drone and missile research and development program is also likely to receive a boost. And Iran’s support for its network of proxies and allies will remain firmly in place, as this enables the Iranian leadership to project power beyond its borders and retain its deterrence capability.

None of this bodes well for Iran’s neighbours. An ideologically energised Islamic regime in Iran would be less accommodating to regional concerns, particularly those aired by governments that have already normalised relations with Israel (such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain), or are believed to be heading in that direction[13] (Saudi Arabia).

Moreover, the political credibility of many Arab leaders has suffered in the eyes of their citizens due to their perceived ineffectiveness in supporting the Palestinians in Gaza.

Iran’s leaders did not plan the series of events that started with the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7. In fact, they were just as surprised by Hamas’ actions as the Israeli intelligence agencies. But they are the obvious beneficiary of the turn of events.

The United States and Israel are gifting Iran and its message of defiance enormous appeal, well beyond the imagination of Iranian authorities.

References

  1. ^ bullying (www.aljazeera.com)
  2. ^ resonating (amwaj.media)
  3. ^ opinion survey (www.washingtoninstitute.org)
  4. ^ Arab Barometer (www.arabbarometer.org)
  5. ^ Iranian missile and drone attack (www.csis.org)
  6. ^ axis of resistance (theconversation.com)
  7. ^ Israeli attack on its diplomatic mission in Damascus (www.theguardian.com)
  8. ^ visited Pakistan (www.reuters.com)
  9. ^ aerial attacks (www.bbc.com)
  10. ^ agreed (www.newarab.com)
  11. ^ take action against Israel (www.reuters.com)
  12. ^ offered (www.mfa.gov.cn)
  13. ^ heading in that direction (www.reuters.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/iran-is-gaining-credibility-in-the-muslim-world-and-feeling-emboldened-this-doesnt-bode-well-for-the-region-229181

The Times Features

The Importance of Regular Roof and Gutter Maintenance for Adelaide Home

The Importance of Regular Roof and Gutter Maintenance for Adelaide Homes Your roof and gutters can be integral to maintaining the structural integrity and aesthetic appeal of yo...

Designer Wardrobe reports surge in pre-loved wedding gowns

As Australia’s wedding season approaches, and amidst a challenging cost of living backdrop, new insights from Designer Wardrobe reveal that Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) brid...

DIY Bathroom Remodel: Essential Tips for a Fresh Look

As the home improvement craze continues to grow, more folks are diving into the world of DIY projects to transform their living spaces. Among these, bathroom remodels have gain...

STI rates are increasing among midlife and older adults. We need to talk about it

Globally, the rates of common sexually transmissible infections[1] (STIs) are increasing among people aged over 50. In some cases, rates are rising faster than among younger pe...

The Gift That Keeps Growing: Why Tinybeans+ Gift Cards are a game-changer for new parents

As new parents navigate the joys and challenges of raising a child in the digital age, one question looms large: how do you preserve and share your baby's milestones without co...

Group Adventures Made Easy: How to Coordinate Shuttle Services from DCA to IAD

Traveling as a large group can be both exciting and challenging, especially when navigating busy airports like DCA (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport) and IAD (Washington...

Times Magazine

Make Mom Smile on Her Special Day by Showing Your Love with Mother's Day Flowers

Mother's Day is the perfect time to show your mum just how much she means to you, and what better way to do that than with a beautiful bouquet! Whether you choose a stunning arrangement of roses, lilies, and sunflowers, or a cheerful mix of daisies...

6 Reasons Why Perfume Gift Sets Make an Ideal Present

Perfume gift sets are the perfect way to show someone you care. Whether you're looking for a special treat for a loved one or want to give yourself a luxurious gift, perfume gift sets are a great choice. They come with a variety of different scents...

Tesselaar Tulip Festival

THE BULBS ARE BACK FOR A DAZZLING DISPLAY THIS SPRING AT THE 2022 TESSELAAR TULIP FESTIVAL  The much-loved and visually spectacular Tesselaar Tulip Festival, in Melbourne’s magical Dandenong Ranges, returns this spring to once again surprise, de...

Waave launches ‘Wallet’ for Pay by Bank with Australian-first biometric security

Payments technology and Open Banking leader Waave today announces the introduction of the Waave Wallet to house its upgraded Pay by Bank product, a real-time account-to-account payment method which now features industry-leading biometric security...

Harnessing the Power of ERP for Efficient Business Operations

Definition of ERP System ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) is a type of business management software that enables businesses to manage their core operations, such as accounting, inventory control, human resources and customer relationship manag...

Choosing the Right WordPress Hosting Provider in Australia

Introduction Australia’s thriving technological market has led to an increase in demand for trusted web hosting providers more than ever before, specifically for organizations and users who are utilizing WordPress to increase their online visibili...