Fri Apr 26

Labor facing heavy defeat in Queensland, but faring better in federal polls

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll ^[1] for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample of 1,092 people, gave the Liberal National Party a 56–44% lead over Labor, a four-point gain for the LNP since the early October 2023 YouGov poll.

Primary votes were 44% LNP (up three points), 27% Labor (down six), 15% Greens (up two), 10% One Nation (up two) and 4% for all others (down one).

Labor Premier Steven Miles had ^[2] a -22 net approval rating, compared with former Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s -20 rating in the October poll, with 47% of those polled dissatisfied with his performance and 25% satisfied.

This is the worst net approval for a Queensland premier in YouGov polls for The Courier Mail.

LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval was +14, up three points from October. Crisafulli led Miles as better premier by 40–27% (he was 37–35% against Palaszczuk in the October poll).

Asked who they would prefer as premier between Miles and Palaszczuk, voters backed Miles ^[3] by 53–47%. Labor voters supported Palaszczuk by 51–49%, while LNP voters favoured Miles by 57–43%.

In March, a Newspoll gave the LNP ^[4] a 54–46% lead over Labor, and there were massive swings to the LNP ^[5] at two Queensland state byelections.

Labor has governed in Queensland since an upset victory at the January 2015 election ^[6]. But the party is now facing a heavy defeat at the October election after almost ten years in power.

Labor extends lead in federal YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll ^[7], conducted April 19–23 from a sample of 1,514 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain since March. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two points), 33% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 10% for all others (steady).

Respondents were given two statements regarding Australian military commitments:

Australians have died for Australia, and we should also be prepared to fight for our country’s values if called upon.

We should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia.

Overall, voters favoured the prepared to fight statement by 46–42%. However, younger age groups were far more inclined to be sceptical than older people. Those aged 25–34 favoured the sceptical statement by 50–34%, while those 65 and older favoured the prepared to fight statement by 60–34%.

On Monday ^[8], I covered drops for Labor in the Resolve, Freshwater and Morgan polls. Polls released since then have been better for Labor – the party improved in YouGov and regained the lead in Morgan.

In economic data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the March quarter inflation report ^[9] on Wednesday. While the 12-month inflation rate slowed from 4.1% in December to 3.6% in March, the quarterly inflation was 1.0% in March, up from 0.6% in December. Persistent inflation probably explains Labor’s mediocre poll ratings.

Essential poll: Coalition regains lead as One Nation surges

A national Essential poll ^[10], conducted April 17–21 from a sample of 1,145 people, gave the Coalition a 49–47% lead over Labor (including undecided voters) – a reversal of Labor’s 48–46% lead in early April.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one point), 31% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down three), 9% One Nation (up three), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all others (up one) and 4% undecided (down two). Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the highest One Nation ^[11] primary vote from any pollster this term.

Albanese’s net approval ^[12] was steady since February at -5, with 48% disapproving of his performance and 43% approving. Dutton’s net approval jumped seven points to +3, with Bonham saying this is Dutton’s first positive net approval from any pollster this term. However, Newspoll gave Dutton a net approval of -15.

On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 32% said Israel should permanently withdraw (down five points since March), 19% favoured a temporary ceasefire (down one), and 19% said Israel’s action was justified (up one). By 29–24%, voters supported recognising Palestine as an independent state.

By a 49–26% margin, voters thought the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy would have a positive impact on Australia as a whole, but were less positive about the personal impact (36–23% positive). And by a 52–31% margin, voters supported Australia developing nuclear energy (compared to 50–33% in October).

Asked which type of energy was most expensive, 40% said renewables (up two points since October), 36% nuclear (up two) and 24% fossil fuels (down four).

By 50–38%, voters thought it unlikely Australia would reach net-zero emissions by 2050 (compared to 57–31% in October).

Morgan poll: Labor regains lead

A national Morgan poll ^[13], conducted April 15–21 from a sample of 1,617 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a reversal of a 51–49% Coalition lead from the previous week.

Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (down three points), 30.5% Labor (up 0.5), 16% Greens (up 2.5), 5.5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (steady) and 5% others (steady).

Additional questions from Newspoll and Resolve

I previously covered the last Newspoll and Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. Recently, Albanese announced a plan to have taxpayer money used for loans and subsidies for projects to help Australia transition to clean energy. Voters backed this plan in Newspoll ^[14] by 56–38%.

When asked about the Israel-Gaza conflict ^[15] in the Resolve poll, 46% of voters agreed it had made Australia less safe, compared to 40% in March. By a 61–12% margin, voters thought there had been a rise in racism and religious intolerance in Australia as a result of the conflict (compared to 57–15% in March).

On who Australia should support, 57% (up 12 points since November) said we should take no action, 17% support Israel (down 14) and 9% support Gaza (up two).