The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Will the world see more wars or unrest in 2024? Here are 5 hotspots to watch

  • Written by Jessica Genauer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University

Sadly, 2023 has been a violent one on the global stage. War broke out between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, leading to the deaths of thousands of Palestinians and hundreds of Israelis, including many children on both sides. And the bitter war between Russia and Ukraine continued with no end in sight.

As a result of the focus on these two conflicts, other countries have dropped off the radar for many people. Some of these nations have been dealing with simmering unrest, however, which could erupt in 2024 and seize the global spotlight.

So, where should we be watching in the coming year? Here are five places where I believe civil conflicts or unrest could worsen and potentially lead to violence.

Myanmar

Myanmar descended into chaos in 2021 when a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked widespread civil protests that eventually morphed into an armed resistance.

The country, home to 135 ethnic groups[1], has rarely known peace. For years before the coup, there was a ongoing, low-grade civil conflict between the military and several minority ethnic groups who have long sought control over natural resources in their regions and independence from the state.

This exploded after the coup as ethnic militia groups joined forces with pro-democracy fighters from the Bamar majority protesting the junta.

Their resistance escalated in late 2023[2] with a coordinated northern offensive dealing the military its most significant losses in many years.

Insurgents won control of towns and villages on the northeastern border with China, including control over key trade routes. This led to renewed fighting[3] in western Rakhine state, as well as in other areas.

The tenacity of the resistance of these minority groups, paired with the refusal of the military to compromise, suggests the country’s civil war may worsen considerably in 2024 and regain international attention.

Mali

In Mali, a nation in the turbulent Sahel region of Africa, tensions escalated throughout 2023[4] and now threaten to erupt into full-scale civil war.

Mali has long battled insurgent activity. In 2012, Mali’s government fell in a coup[5] and Tuareg rebels, backed by Islamist militants, seized power in the north.

A United Nations peacekeeping mission was established in 2013 to bring stability to Mali. Then, in 2015, key rebel groups signed a peace agreement[6] with the Mali government.

Read more: Mali crisis: UN peacekeepers are leaving after 10 years – what's needed for a smooth transition[7]

After two more coups in 2020 and 2021, military officers consolidated their power and said they would restore the state’s full territorial control over all of Mali. The regime insisted the UN peacekeeping mission withdraw[8] from the country, which it did in June 2023. Subsequently, violence broke out between the military and rebel forces over future use of the UN bases.

In November, the military, reportedly backed by Russia’s Wagner Group, took control of the strategic northern town of Kidal[9] which had been held by Tuareg forces since 2012. This undermines the fragile peace that has held since 2015.

It is unlikely the military will regain complete control over all rebel-held areas in the north. At the same time, insurgents are emboldened. With the 2015 peace agreement now all but dead, we can expect increased volatility in 2024.

Lebanon

In 2019, widespread civil protest broke out in Lebanon against leaders who were perceived not to be addressing the day-to-day needs of the population.

The situation continued to deteriorate[10], with a reshuffled government, escalating economic crisis and a massive port explosion[11] that exposed corrupt practices.

A protest outside a bank in Lebanon after the lira hit an all-time low against the US dollar in March 2023. Wael Hamzeh/EPA

The International Monetary Fund criticised Lebanon in September[12] for a lack of economic reform. The Lebanese government has also failed to reach agreement on appointing a president, a post that has been vacant for more than a year[13].

This risks undermining the fragile power-sharing arrangement in Lebanon in which the key political posts of prime minister, speaker and president are allocated to a Sunni-Muslim, Shia-Muslim and Christian Maronite, respectively.

Most recently, the war between Israel and Hamas has threatened to spill over to Lebanon, home to the Hezbollah[14] militant group, which claims to have an army of 100,000 fighters. Importantly, this jeopardises tourism as a key hope for Lebanon’s economic recovery.

These factors may precipitate a more serious economic and political collapse in 2024.

Pakistan

Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, the military has played an interventionist role in politics[15]. Though Pakistani leaders are popularly elected, military officials have at times removed them from power.

In 2022, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan fell out of favour with Pakistan’s militant leaders. He was subsequently ousted from power[16] in a parliament vote and later arrested on charges that his supporters claim are politically motivated.

Violent demonstrations broke out[17] nationwide after his arrest – a display of anger against the military that was once unthinkable.

Pakistan also faces spillover from instability in neighbouring Afghanistan and increased terror attacks[18]. These security challenges have been compounded by a struggling economy and ongoing costs from the devastating 2022 floods[19].

Pakistan is expected to hold parliamentary elections[20] in February 2024, after which the current military caretaker government is expected to transfer power back to civilian rule. Many are watching the military closely. If this transfer of power does not take place, or there are delays, civil unrest may result.

Read more: How Imran Khan's populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife's edge[21]

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka faced a debilitating economic crisis in 2022[22] that led to critical fuel, food and medical shortages. Civil protests caused then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. He was quickly replaced by current President Ranil Wickremesingh.

Stability returned in 2023 as Sri Lanka began implementing economic reforms as part of a bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund. However, widespread dissatisfaction with political elites and the underlying drivers of the country’s economic hardship have not been addressed.

Soldiers block a road as workers protest against the government’s domestic debt restructuring process and proposed new labor laws in July 2023. Chamila Karunarathne/EPA

Elections are also due in Sri Lanka by late 2024. While Wickremesingh, the incumbent, is likely to run for a second term, he has low trust[23] with the public. He is viewed as too close to corrupt political elites.

This dissatisfaction could lead to renewed protests – particularly if the economy stumbles again – in a repeat of the situation that led to Rajapaksa’s ousting in 2022.

References

  1. ^ 135 ethnic groups (www.embassyofmyanmar.be)
  2. ^ escalated in late 2023 (warontherocks.com)
  3. ^ renewed fighting (www.theguardian.com)
  4. ^ tensions escalated throughout 2023 (www.crisisgroup.org)
  5. ^ fell in a coup (www.nytimes.com)
  6. ^ signed a peace agreement (www.france24.com)
  7. ^ Mali crisis: UN peacekeepers are leaving after 10 years – what's needed for a smooth transition (theconversation.com)
  8. ^ withdraw (www.un.org)
  9. ^ strategic northern town of Kidal (apnews.com)
  10. ^ continued to deteriorate (theconversation.com)
  11. ^ massive port explosion (apnews.com)
  12. ^ criticised Lebanon in September (www.imf.org)
  13. ^ more than a year (www.state.gov)
  14. ^ Hezbollah (www.bbc.com)
  15. ^ interventionist role in politics (theconversation.com)
  16. ^ ousted from power (edition.cnn.com)
  17. ^ broke out (www.nytimes.com)
  18. ^ increased terror attacks (news.un.org)
  19. ^ devastating 2022 floods (www.theguardian.com)
  20. ^ parliamentary elections (www.aljazeera.com)
  21. ^ How Imran Khan's populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife's edge (theconversation.com)
  22. ^ Sri Lanka faced a debilitating economic crisis in 2022 (theconversation.com)
  23. ^ low trust (www.pbs.org)

Read more https://theconversation.com/will-the-world-see-more-wars-or-unrest-in-2024-here-are-5-hotspots-to-watch-217807

The Times Features

Why Regional Small Businesses in Bendigo Deserve Better Access to Finance in 2025

In the heart of regional Victoria, Bendigo has long stood as a beacon of innovation, resilience and community spirit. As we step further into 2025, the importance of nurturing sm...

Is It Time for a Deep Cleaning? Signs You Shouldn’t Ignore

Most people know they should visit the dentist for a regular check-up and cleaning every six months. But sometimes, a standard cleaning isn’t enough. When plaque and tartar build...

The Hidden Meaning Behind Popular Engagement Ring Cuts

When it comes to engagement rings, the cut of the diamond is not just about aesthetics. Each shape carries its own symbolism and significance, making it an important decision for...

Annual Health Exams in the Office: How They Can Reduce Sick Days and Healthcare Costs

Regular health check-ups, especially annual health exams in the office, can significantly impact the overall well-being of your workforce. A proactive approach to employee health...

Best Deals on Home Furniture Online

Key Highlights Discover the best deals on high-quality outdoor furniture online. Transform your outdoor space into a stylish and comfortable oasis. Explore a wide range of d...

Discover the Best Women's Jumpers for Every Season

Key Highlights Explore lightweight jumpers for spring and summer, ensuring breathability and ease. Wrap up warm with cozy wool jumpers for the chilly autumn and winter season...

Times Magazine

The Essential Guide to Transforming Office Spaces for Maximum Efficiency

Why Office Fitouts MatterA well-designed office can make all the difference in productivity, employee satisfaction, and client impressions. Businesses of all sizes are investing in updated office spaces to create environments that foster collaborat...

The A/B Testing Revolution: How AI Optimized Landing Pages Without Human Input

A/B testing was always integral to the web-based marketing world. Was there a button that converted better? Marketing could pit one against the other and see which option worked better. This was always through human observation, and over time, as d...

Using Countdown Timers in Email: Do They Really Increase Conversions?

In a world that's always on, where marketers are attempting to entice a subscriber and get them to convert on the same screen with one email, the power of urgency is sometimes the essential element needed. One of the most popular ways to create urg...

Types of Software Consultants

In today's technology-driven world, businesses often seek the expertise of software consultants to navigate complex software needs. There are several types of software consultants, including solution architects, project managers, and user experienc...

CWU Assistive Tech Hub is Changing Lives: Win a Free Rollator Walker This Easter!

🌟 Mobility. Independence. Community. All in One. This Easter, the CWU Assistive Tech Hub is pleased to support the Banyule community by giving away a rollator walker. The giveaway will take place during the Macleod Village Easter Egg Hunt & Ma...

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

LayBy Shopping