The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

We just blew past 1.5 degrees. Game over on climate? Not yet

  • Written by Ailie Gallant, Senior Lecturer, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University

July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded[1]. And now we know something even more alarming. This week, the European Space Agency announced the July heat pushed the global average temperatures 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial average.

The ominous headlines[2] seemed to suggest we’d blown past the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of holding warming to 1.5℃ – and around a decade earlier than expected.

Is that it? Game over, we lost?

Well, like all things to do with climate change, it’s not quite that simple. The threshold was breached for a month before average temperatures dropped back. And July 2023 isn’t actually the first time this has happened either – the dubious honour goes to February 2016[3], where we broke the threshold for a few days.

Hard to cool off: 2023 has been breaking heat and extreme weather records. Gerald Herbert/AP

Remind me – why is 1.5℃ so important?

In 2015, the world looked like it was finally getting somewhere with action to combat climate change. After decades of arduous debate, 195 nations adopted the Paris Agreement, a formal but non-binding agreement[4] with a clear goal: limit global warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

But there’s nothing magic about this number. Every increase worsens the impacts. So why is 1.5℃ so important?

Essentially, it was thrashed out by experts as a threshold representing heightened danger. The Paris Agreement states[5] avoiding dangerous climate change means keeping global temperatures “well below 2℃” of warming, and so the 1.5℃ threshold was born.

Read more: The 1.5℃ global warming limit is not impossible – but without political action it soon will be[6]

What’s a dangerous level[7] of climate change? Basically, levels of warming where the damage becomes so widespread or severe as to threaten economies, ecosystems, agriculture, and risk irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of ice sheets or ocean circulations. More importantly, this level of warming risks pushing us beyond the limits of being able to adapt.

Put simply, the 1.5℃ threshold is the best estimate of the point where we are likely to find ourselves well up the proverbial creek, without a paddle.

Sakchai Lalit A hotter world makes it harder to farm. This year, India banned most rice exports due to impacts from extreme weather. AP

Is it too late to act on climate change?

So, should we all just give up?

Not yet.

The global authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, defines 1.5℃ as a departure from global average temperatures above the 1850 to 1900 (pre-industrial) average.

It’s true that this threshold was exceeded for the month of July 2023. But the climate is more than a single month.

Global average temperatures go up and down every year on top of the global warming trend, because climates naturally vary year-to-year.

The most recent few years have been much warmer than average, but cooler than they could have been because of consecutive La Niña events.

This year, there’s been a significant acceleration in warming, largely due to the brewing El Niño event in the Pacific. El Niño years tend to be hotter[8].

To iron out year-to-year differences, we typically average data over several decades. As a result, a 2021 IPCC report defines the 1.5℃ threshold as the first 20-year period[9] when we reach 1.5℃ of global warming (based on surface air temperatures).

Recent research[10] shows the best estimate to pass this threshold is in the early 2030s. That means, by IPCC definitions, the average global temperature between the early 2020s and early 2040s is estimated to be 1.5C.

Dangerously close to the red line

All of this means we haven’t yet failed to meet our Paris targets. But the July record shows us we are dangerously close to the line.

As the world keeps heating up, we’ll see more and more months like this July, and move closer and closer to the threshold of 1.5℃, beyond which global warming will become more and more dangerous.

Is it still possible to stay below 1.5℃? Maybe. We would need extremely aggressive cuts to emissions to have a chance. Failing that, we will likely exceed the Paris target within the next decade or so.

Let’s say that happens. Would that mean we just give up on climate action?

Hardly. 1.5℃ is bad. 1.6℃ would be worse. 2℃ would be worse still. 3℃ would be unthinkable[11]. Every extra increment matters.

storm daniel Storm Daniel – a rare Mediterranean hurricane – struck Greece and then Libya, where it killed thousands. Jamal Alkomaty/AP

The closer we stay to the line – even if we cross it – the better.

And there’s now good evidence[12] that even if we overshoot 1.5℃, we could still reverse it by ending emissions and soaking up excess greenhouse gas emissions. It’s like turning around an enormous container ship – it takes time to overcome the inertia. But the sooner we turn around, the better.

Read more: After COP27, all signs point to world blowing past the 1.5 degrees global warming limit – here's what we can still do about it[13]

Read more https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...

Troubleshooting Flickering Lights: A Comprehensive Guide for Homeowners

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Effectively addressing flickering lights in your home is more than just a matter of convenience; it's a pivotal aspect of both home safety and en...

My shins hurt after running. Could it be shin splints?

If you’ve started running for the first time, started again after a break, or your workout is more intense, you might have felt it. A dull, nagging ache down your shins after...

Metal Roof Replacement Cost Per Square Metre in 2025: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Homeowners

In recent years, the trend of installing metal roofs has surged across Australia. With their reputation for being both robust and visually appealing, it's easy to understand thei...

Why You’re Always Adjusting Your Bra — and What to Do Instead

Image by freepik It starts with a gentle tug, then a subtle shift, and before you know it, you're adjusting your bra again — in the middle of work, at dinner, even on the couch. I...

How to Tell If Your Eyes Are Working Harder Than They Should Be

Image by freepik Most of us take our vision for granted—until it starts to let us down. Whether it's squinting at your phone, rubbing your eyes at the end of the day, or feeling ...