The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Ancient pathogens released from melting ice could wreak havoc on the world, new analysis reveals

  • Written by Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Models Theme Leader for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Flinders University
Ancient pathogens released from melting ice could wreak havoc on the world, new analysis reveals

Science fiction is rife with fanciful tales of deadly organisms emerging from the ice and wreaking havoc on unsuspecting human victims.

From shape-shifting aliens[1] in Antarctica, to super-parasites emerging from a thawing woolly mammoth[2] in Siberia, to exposed permafrost in Greenland[3] causing a viral pandemic – the concept is marvellous plot fodder.

But just how far-fetched is it? Could pathogens that were once common on Earth – but frozen for millennia in glaciers, ice caps and permafrost[4] – emerge from the melting ice to lay waste to modern ecosystems? The potential is, in fact, quite real.

Dangers lying in wait

In 2003, bacteria were revived[5] from samples taken from the bottom of an ice core drilled into an ice cap[6] on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau[7]. The ice at that depth was more than 750,000 years old.

In 2014, a giant “zombie” Pithovirus sibericum virus was revived from[8] 30,000-year-old Siberian permafrost.

And in 2016, an outbreak of anthrax[9] (a disease caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis) in western Siberia[10] was attributed to the rapid thawing of B. anthracis spores[11] in permafrost. It killed thousands of reindeer and affected dozens of people.

Bacillus anthracis is a soil bacterium that causes anthrax. William A. Clark/USCDCP

More recently, scientists found remarkable genetic compatibility[12] between viruses isolated from lake sediments in the high Arctic and potential living hosts.

Earth’s climate is warming at a spectacular rate[13], and up to four times faster in colder regions[14] such as the Arctic. Estimates suggest we can expect four sextillion[15] (4,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) microorganisms to be released from ice melt each year. This is about the same as the estimated number of stars in the universe[16].

Read more: For 110 years, climate change has been in the news. Are we finally ready to listen?[17]

However, despite the unfathomably large number of microorganisms being released from melting ice (including pathogens that can potentially infect modern species), no one has been able to estimate the risk this poses to modern ecosystems.

In a new study[18] published today in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, we calculated the ecological risks posed by the release of unpredictable ancient viruses.

Our simulations show that 1% of simulated releases of just one dormant pathogen could cause major environmental damage and the widespread loss of host organisms around the world.

Melt water carving a glacier in the Himalayas of India. Sharada Prasad

Digital worlds

We used a software called Avida[19] to run experiments that simulated the release of one type of ancient pathogen into modern biological communities.

We then measured the impacts of this invading pathogen on the diversity of modern host bacteria in thousands of simulations, and compared these to simulations where no invasion occurred.

The invading pathogens often survived and evolved in the simulated modern world. About 3% of the time the pathogen became dominant in the new environment, in which case they were very likely to cause losses to modern host diversity.

In the worst- (but still entirely plausible) case scenario, the invasion reduced the size of its host community by 30% when compared to controls.

The risk from this small fraction of pathogens might seem small, but keep in mind these are the results of releasing just one particular pathogen in simulated environments. With the sheer number of ancient microbes being released in the real world, such outbreaks represent a substantial danger.

Read more: Melting ice leaves polar ecosystems out in the sun[20]

Extinction and disease

Our findings suggest this unpredictable threat which has so far been confined to science fiction could become a powerful driver of ecological change.

While we didn’t model the potential risk to humans, the fact that “time-travelling” pathogens could become established and severely degrade a host community is already worrisome.

Drilling ice cores in Greenland. Helle Astrid Kjær

We highlight yet another source of potential species extinction in the modern era – one which even our worst-case extinction models[21] do not include. As a society, we need to understand the potential risks so we can prepare for them.

Notable viruses such as SARS-CoV-2[22], Ebola[23] and HIV[24] were likely transmitted to humans via contact with other animal hosts. So it is plausible[25] that a once ice-bound virus could enter the human population via a zoonotic pathway[26].

While the likelihood of a pathogen emerging from melting ice and causing catastrophic extinctions is low, our results show this is no longer a fantasy for which we shouldn’t prepare.

They may only be microscopic – and far from the giant flesh-eating bugs you’ll see in sci-fi films – but the risks posed by pathogens shouldn’t be underestimated. Giovanni Strona, 2023 (based on previous work by Oksana Dobrovolska), CC BY-SA[27][28]

References

  1. ^ shape-shifting aliens (www.imdb.com)
  2. ^ thawing woolly mammoth (www.imdb.com)
  3. ^ permafrost in Greenland (www.nytimes.com)
  4. ^ permafrost (climate.mit.edu)
  5. ^ bacteria were revived (ami-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
  6. ^ ice cap (byrd.osu.edu)
  7. ^ Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (goo.gl)
  8. ^ revived from (www.pnas.org)
  9. ^ anthrax (www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au)
  10. ^ in western Siberia (goo.gl)
  11. ^ thawing of B. anthracis spores (link.springer.com)
  12. ^ remarkable genetic compatibility (royalsocietypublishing.org)
  13. ^ spectacular rate (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ in colder regions (www.nature.com)
  15. ^ four sextillion (ami-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com)
  16. ^ in the universe (www.esa.int)
  17. ^ For 110 years, climate change has been in the news. Are we finally ready to listen? (theconversation.com)
  18. ^ a new study (doi.org)
  19. ^ Avida (alife.org)
  20. ^ Melting ice leaves polar ecosystems out in the sun (theconversation.com)
  21. ^ worst-case extinction models (theconversation.com)
  22. ^ SARS-CoV-2 (www.sciencedirect.com)
  23. ^ Ebola (www.science.org)
  24. ^ HIV (perspectivesinmedicine.cshlp.org)
  25. ^ plausible (www.huffpost.com)
  26. ^ zoonotic pathway (theconversation.com)
  27. ^ Giovanni Strona, 2023 (based on previous work by Oksana Dobrovolska) (cloud.blender.org)
  28. ^ CC BY-SA (creativecommons.org)

Read more https://theconversation.com/ancient-pathogens-released-from-melting-ice-could-wreak-havoc-on-the-world-new-analysis-reveals-209795

Times Magazine

DIY Is In: How Aussie Parents Are Redefining Birthday Parties

When planning his daughter’s birthday, Rich opted for a DIY approach, inspired by her love for drawing maps and giving clues. Their weekend tradition of hiding treats at home sparked the idea, and with a pirate ship playground already chosen as t...

When Touchscreens Turn Temperamental: What to Do Before You Panic

When your touchscreen starts acting up, ignoring taps, registering phantom touches, or freezing entirely, it can feel like your entire setup is falling apart. Before you rush to replace the device, it’s worth taking a deep breath and exploring what c...

Why Social Media Marketing Matters for Businesses in Australia

Today social media is a big part of daily life. All over Australia people use Facebook, Instagram, TikTok , LinkedIn and Twitter to stay connected, share updates and find new ideas. For businesses this means a great chance to reach new customers and...

Building an AI-First Culture in Your Company

AI isn't just something to think about anymore - it's becoming part of how we live and work, whether we like it or not. At the office, it definitely helps us move faster. But here's the thing: just using tools like ChatGPT or plugging AI into your wo...

Data Management Isn't Just About Tech—Here’s Why It’s a Human Problem Too

Photo by Kevin Kuby Manuel O. Diaz Jr.We live in a world drowning in data. Every click, swipe, medical scan, and financial transaction generates information, so much that managing it all has become one of the biggest challenges of our digital age. Bu...

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Times Features

What Makes Certain Rings or Earrings Timeless Versus Trendy?

Timeless rings and earrings are defined by designs that withstand the test of time, quality craftsmanship, and versatility. Trendy pieces, on the other hand, often stand testimony ...

Italian Street Kitchen: A Nation’s Favourite with Expansion News on Horizon

Successful chef brothers, Enrico and Giulio Marchese, weigh in on their day-to-day at Australian foodie favourite, Italian Street Kitchen - with plans for ‘ambitious expansion’ to ...

What to Expect During a Professional Termite Inspection

Keeping a home safe from termites isn't just about peace of mind—it’s a vital investment in the structure of your property. A professional termite inspection is your first line o...

Booty and the Beasts - The Podcast

Cult TV Show Back with Bite as a Riotous New Podcast  The show that scandalised, shocked and entertained audiences across the country, ‘Beauty and the Beast’, has returned in ...

A Guide to Determining the Right Time for a Switchboard Replacement

At the centre of every property’s electrical system is the switchboard – a component that doesn’t get much attention until problems arise. This essential unit directs electrici...

Après Skrew: Peanut Butter Whiskey Turns Australia’s Winter Parties Upside Down

This August, winter in Australia is about to get a lot nuttier. Skrewball Whiskey, the cult U.S. peanut butter whiskey that’s taken the world by storm, is bringing its bold brand o...