The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

What now for Brazil? President Lula strengthened, but Bolsonaro supporters won't go quietly

  • Written by Deborah Barros Leal Farias, Senior lecturer, UNSW Sydney

On Sunday January 8, radical supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro invaded and vandalised buildings that house Brazil’s congress, supreme court and presidential palace.

Since then, over 1,500 people have been detained[1].

The Governor of the Federal District, legally responsible for guaranteeing order in Brasilia and protecting the executive government’s buildings, has been temporarily ousted[2] from his position. Also, the governor’s former military police commander has been arrested[3].

In this very initial post-riot moment, some early assessments can be drawn on the repercussions for current President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and for Bolsonaro supporters. Firstly, that Lula seems to be paradoxically strengthened from this.

And secondly, while there has been little support for the riots from the general public, Bolsonaristas are far from being a weak group.

What now for Lula’s presidency?

The attacks in Brasilia caused extensive material damage. However, they didn’t succeed in ousting Lula, or even in weakening his leadership.

Quite the opposite – Lula seems to be the one to have gained the most political capital in the immediate aftermath.

Even though he became president just over a week ago, this is his third time in the position. Regardless of whether one supports him or not, he has unparalleled experience in how to portray a position of power and confidence. He’s also known as an incredibly skilled politician with a particular ability to build political bridges.

A day after the attacks, Lula convened a meeting in Brasilia attended by all of Brazil’s 27 governors[4], including some hardcore Bolsonaro supporters, along with members of the Supreme Court and powerful members of the Senate and the lower house.

Police clash with Bolsonaro supporters in Brasilia
Police clash with Bolsonaro supporters in Brasilia. Andre Borges/EPA/AAP

He said the violent acts were unacceptable and those involved should be judged and punished under the law. The meeting finished with all of them walking – many hand-in-hand – from the presidential palace across to the Supreme Court (some 400 meters away) so everyone could witness the destruction first-hand.

Even if this was “just” a photo-op, it was a visible demonstration of institutional unity by members and leaders of the executive, legislative, and judiciary powers and of the federation.

Though how long this spirit will stay in place is anyone’s guess – this is politics, after all.

What now for Bolsonaro supporters?

This episode seems to have weakened Bolsonaristas, at least temporarily. But to dismiss or minimise their ongoing capacity to organise other violent events in the future would be not just wrong but dangerous. Toppling a democratic regime might be a very high bar to reach, but generating chaos and fear might be on the agenda for the next four years.

It’s important to note Bolsonaro supporters are not a homogenous group. Some are primarily against Lula or his party (the Workers’ Party), and supported Bolsonaro’s presidential bid so Lula wouldn’t win. Others have accepted Bolsonaro’s loss, even if painfully, but have carried on with their lives.

Read more: Brazil's iconic football shirt was a symbol of Bolsonaro – here's how the World Cup is changing that[5]

Neither of these groups were the ones vandalising public buildings or sleeping in tents outside of army walls[6] for weeks. So far, the impression is these more “moderate” supporters do not support what took place in Brasilia.

An analysis of over two million social media posts while the riots were happening showed 90% of the public’s comments were negative[7] towards the riots, mostly expressing sadness, fear and disgust.

So, it’s likely Bolsonaro supporters who defend the attacks on the capital are a relatively small group. Yet, they share a hardcore and radical view of Brazil.

Many of them are convinced Brazil needs to be “saved from communism”. The rioters see themselves as “true patriots”, the ones responsible for safeguarding God and family against the “red menace”. This Christmas, some Bolsonaro supporters[8] and businesses even took issue with Santa Claus wearing red, given the association between the colour red and communism.

Right now, only a handful of political figures are openly supporting the rioters. But some members of the armed forces and the police are backing the riots[9]. It’s not clear exactly how many police are in this camp or how willing they are to risk their jobs and support anti-democratic actions.

It’s also not yet clear whether this was the apex of violent attempts to oust Lula, or the beginning of what’s yet to come. The country is still rife with polarisation.

The challenge now in Brazil is to recreate the country’s political centre-right, which essentially evaporated in the last two elections, engulfed under Bolsonaro’s clout with the far-right. A centre-right that defends democratic values wouldn’t eliminate far-right radicals, but it would hopefully help in making them a fringe group.

Still, this is not a short term solution – if it is even a solution at all. Right now, there’s too much political tension in the air and any long-term assessments are unwise.

References

  1. ^ detained (www.reuters.com)
  2. ^ ousted (www.bloomberg.com)
  3. ^ military police commander has been arrested (www.bbc.com)
  4. ^ all of Brazil’s 27 governors (www.irishtimes.com)
  5. ^ Brazil's iconic football shirt was a symbol of Bolsonaro – here's how the World Cup is changing that (theconversation.com)
  6. ^ sleeping in tents outside of army walls (www.france24.com)
  7. ^ 90% of the public’s comments were negative (www.metropoles.com)
  8. ^ Bolsonaro supporters (www.correiobraziliense.com.br)
  9. ^ backing the riots (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/what-now-for-brazil-president-lula-strengthened-but-bolsonaro-supporters-wont-go-quietly-197530

The Times Features

Discover the Charm of a Girl's White Dress

Key Highlights Timeless elegance: White dresses feel pure and have classic charm. They are perfect for many types of events. Versatile styles: You can pick from lace, embroid...

Top Medical Grade Red Light Therapy Devices in Australia

Key Highlights Lumitter™ has advanced red light therapy devices that combine new ideas with wellness. Red light therapy helps lower pain and swelling and boosts skin health. ...

Why Regional Small Businesses in Bendigo Deserve Better Access to Finance in 2025

In the heart of regional Victoria, Bendigo has long stood as a beacon of innovation, resilience and community spirit. As we step further into 2025, the importance of nurturing sm...

Is It Time for a Deep Cleaning? Signs You Shouldn’t Ignore

Most people know they should visit the dentist for a regular check-up and cleaning every six months. But sometimes, a standard cleaning isn’t enough. When plaque and tartar build...

The Hidden Meaning Behind Popular Engagement Ring Cuts

When it comes to engagement rings, the cut of the diamond is not just about aesthetics. Each shape carries its own symbolism and significance, making it an important decision for...

Annual Health Exams in the Office: How They Can Reduce Sick Days and Healthcare Costs

Regular health check-ups, especially annual health exams in the office, can significantly impact the overall well-being of your workforce. A proactive approach to employee health...

Times Magazine

The Essential Guide to Transforming Office Spaces for Maximum Efficiency

Why Office Fitouts MatterA well-designed office can make all the difference in productivity, employee satisfaction, and client impressions. Businesses of all sizes are investing in updated office spaces to create environments that foster collaborat...

The A/B Testing Revolution: How AI Optimized Landing Pages Without Human Input

A/B testing was always integral to the web-based marketing world. Was there a button that converted better? Marketing could pit one against the other and see which option worked better. This was always through human observation, and over time, as d...

Using Countdown Timers in Email: Do They Really Increase Conversions?

In a world that's always on, where marketers are attempting to entice a subscriber and get them to convert on the same screen with one email, the power of urgency is sometimes the essential element needed. One of the most popular ways to create urg...

Types of Software Consultants

In today's technology-driven world, businesses often seek the expertise of software consultants to navigate complex software needs. There are several types of software consultants, including solution architects, project managers, and user experienc...

CWU Assistive Tech Hub is Changing Lives: Win a Free Rollator Walker This Easter!

🌟 Mobility. Independence. Community. All in One. This Easter, the CWU Assistive Tech Hub is pleased to support the Banyule community by giving away a rollator walker. The giveaway will take place during the Macleod Village Easter Egg Hunt & Ma...

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

LayBy Shopping