The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Global flashpoints to watch in 2023 in the era of 'polycrisis'

  • Written by Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

When 2022 began, there was trepidation[1] about what might happen in at least ten regions. Topping most lists were concerns about tensions in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Ethiopia.

What actually transpired in 2022 were some of the most shocking humanitarian scenes in modern history – with a backdrop of the continuing pandemic and extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change.

This has prompted experts to speak of an era of “polycrisis[2]”, where countries are dealing with cascading and interconnected crises.

Read more: 'Polycrisis' may be a buzzword, but it could help us tackle the world's woes[3]

The World Bank estimates[4] 23 countries – with a combined population of 850 million people – currently face high or medium intensity conflict. The number of conflict-affected countries has doubled over the past decade.

This has triggered massive refugee flows. As of May 2022, a global record[5] of 100 million people were forcibly displaced worldwide.

With the backdrop of last year’s bitter legacy, what crises are most concerning as we head into 2023?

There are a range of new flashpoints and ongoing deadly conflicts the world has largely ignored due to the focus on Ukraine.

2022’s bitter legacy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been seared into our memories of 2022. It has been one of the fastest and largest displacement crises[6] in decades.

Also making headlines last year was continuing violence in Afghanistan[7], where six million people were on the brink of famine by August 2022 according to the UN refugee agency, and the mayhem[8] in Myanmar following the military’s February 2021 coup.

The opening days of 2023 look bleak. Those in Ukraine and Afghanistan are now facing winter without access to food, water, health care and other essential supplies.

The situation in Myanmar is only worsening, especially for ethnic minority regions and in Rohingya refugee camps.

Read more: War in Ukraine is pushing global acute hunger to the highest level in this century[9]

New flashpoint: Iran

In Iran, 22-year-old Mahsa (Jina) Amini was arrested at a metro station by the morality police who enforce the dress code, and she died after being held in their custody on September 16 last year.

Her death set off a sustained uprising in more than 150 cities and 140 universities in all 31 provinces of Iran, according[10] to UN human rights chief Volker Türk.

More than 15,000 people, including children, have been arrested in connection with the protests and are threatened with execution. At least 26 of them currently face the death penalty[11], and at least four have reportedly[12] already been executed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps say the average age of arrested protesters is as young as 15[13].

The prospects of a peaceful resolution of this crisis in 2023 are low and require strong global intervention.

Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong has made firm statements[14] against the death penalty and this “dark chapter” in Iran’s history with her Canadian and New Zealand counterparts, and she should continue this rhetoric.

Tensions in the Asia-Pacific

In our region, Sri Lanka faced economic collapse and a mostly peaceful uprising in mid-2022, and remains in a precarious position.

North Korea remains an aggressive actor. Military tensions on the Korean peninsula have risen sharply this year as Pyongyang has carried out an unprecedented blitz of weapons tests, including the launch of one of its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles in November.

From Australia’s perspective, our primary national security risk remains developments in the South China Sea and Taiwan.

More aggressive language[15] on Taiwan emerged from the Chinese Communist Party Congress, and statements by President Joe Biden indicated[16] the United States would not stand by if China invaded Taiwan.

Current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has pledged[17] to double Japan’s defence spending in response to these tensions.

There’s a high risk of miscalculation[18] on this issue from all sides, and there’s the growing threat of grey zone tactics – coercive measures which don’t qualify as conventional military battle.

We must avoid tunnel vision

What we also witnessed in 2022 was that the world’s gaze and assistance was so firmly focused on events in Ukraine that many other long-running conflicts producing extreme human suffering were ignored or receded into the background.

For example, it’s hard to overstate the severity of the crises in East Africa of food, shelter and health systems – though comparably this has received little media attention.

What’s more, the UN Human Rights Office estimates more than 306,000 civilians were killed over ten years[19] in the Syrian conflict, and any peaceful resolution is still “elusive[20]” according to UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen.

There are deep structural conflicts in Haiti, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo threatening people, species and the environment. The global community must pay attention.

Read more: Permacrisis: what it means and why it's word of the year for 2022[21]

Dealing with ‘polycrisis’

Nations, civil society movements and the UN must be nimble enough to deal with the state of “polycrisis” or “permacrisis” the globe is enduring – where armed conflicts combine with and exacerbate issues such as inflation, cyber threats, geo-politics and the energy crisis.

World leaders are dealing with a host of pressing issues:

  • the climate emergency

  • the socio-economic repercussions of the COVID pandemic, by no means over

  • 100 million displaced people

  • the increasing global population, now over eight billion

  • the rising cost of living.

All this means 2023 is likely to be another turbulent year.

References

  1. ^ trepidation (conflicts2022.crisisgroup.org)
  2. ^ polycrisis (theconversation.com)
  3. ^ 'Polycrisis' may be a buzzword, but it could help us tackle the world's woes (theconversation.com)
  4. ^ estimates (www.worldbank.org)
  5. ^ record (unstats.un.org)
  6. ^ displacement crises (reporting.unhcr.org)
  7. ^ Afghanistan (www.cfr.org)
  8. ^ mayhem (news.un.org)
  9. ^ War in Ukraine is pushing global acute hunger to the highest level in this century (theconversation.com)
  10. ^ according (news.un.org)
  11. ^ 26 of them currently face the death penalty (www.bbc.com)
  12. ^ reportedly (www.npr.org)
  13. ^ as young as 15 (www.al-monitor.com)
  14. ^ statements (www.foreignminister.gov.au)
  15. ^ language (www.theguardian.com)
  16. ^ indicated (www.theguardian.com)
  17. ^ pledged (www.cfr.org)
  18. ^ miscalculation (www.reuters.com)
  19. ^ more than 306,000 civilians were killed over ten years (www.ohchr.org)
  20. ^ elusive (news.un.org)
  21. ^ Permacrisis: what it means and why it's word of the year for 2022 (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/mad-world-global-flashpoints-to-watch-in-2023-in-the-era-of-polycrisis-195433

The Times Features

Is It Time for a Deep Cleaning? Signs You Shouldn’t Ignore

Most people know they should visit the dentist for a regular check-up and cleaning every six months. But sometimes, a standard cleaning isn’t enough. When plaque and tartar build...

The Hidden Meaning Behind Popular Engagement Ring Cuts

When it comes to engagement rings, the cut of the diamond is not just about aesthetics. Each shape carries its own symbolism and significance, making it an important decision for...

Annual Health Exams in the Office: How They Can Reduce Sick Days and Healthcare Costs

Regular health check-ups, especially annual health exams in the office, can significantly impact the overall well-being of your workforce. A proactive approach to employee health...

Best Deals on Home Furniture Online

Key Highlights Discover the best deals on high-quality outdoor furniture online. Transform your outdoor space into a stylish and comfortable oasis. Explore a wide range of d...

Discover the Best Women's Jumpers for Every Season

Key Highlights Explore lightweight jumpers for spring and summer, ensuring breathability and ease. Wrap up warm with cozy wool jumpers for the chilly autumn and winter season...

Uncover the Elegance of Gorgeous Diamond Tennis Necklaces

Key Highlights Diamond tennis necklaces are a timeless piece of jewelry that exudes elegance and sophistication. They feature a continuous line of brilliant-cut diamonds, cre...

Times Magazine

The Essential Guide to Transforming Office Spaces for Maximum Efficiency

Why Office Fitouts MatterA well-designed office can make all the difference in productivity, employee satisfaction, and client impressions. Businesses of all sizes are investing in updated office spaces to create environments that foster collaborat...

The A/B Testing Revolution: How AI Optimized Landing Pages Without Human Input

A/B testing was always integral to the web-based marketing world. Was there a button that converted better? Marketing could pit one against the other and see which option worked better. This was always through human observation, and over time, as d...

Using Countdown Timers in Email: Do They Really Increase Conversions?

In a world that's always on, where marketers are attempting to entice a subscriber and get them to convert on the same screen with one email, the power of urgency is sometimes the essential element needed. One of the most popular ways to create urg...

Types of Software Consultants

In today's technology-driven world, businesses often seek the expertise of software consultants to navigate complex software needs. There are several types of software consultants, including solution architects, project managers, and user experienc...

CWU Assistive Tech Hub is Changing Lives: Win a Free Rollator Walker This Easter!

🌟 Mobility. Independence. Community. All in One. This Easter, the CWU Assistive Tech Hub is pleased to support the Banyule community by giving away a rollator walker. The giveaway will take place during the Macleod Village Easter Egg Hunt & Ma...

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

LayBy Shopping