Labor retains big lead in Newspoll as Albanese's ratings jump; Victorian election update

A federal Newspoll, conducted November 30 to December 3 from a sample of 1,508, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from the post-budget Newspoll in late October. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (steady) and 8% for all Others (down one).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was at 62% satisfied (up three) and 29% dissatisfied (down four), for a net approval of +33, up seven points. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was down two points on net approval to -9. Albanese led Dutton by 59-24 as better PM (54-27 previously). Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger^[1].

In all polls conducted since the May election, Labor has had a big lead, with one exception. Last week’s Morgan poll only gave Labor a 52.5-47.5 lead, and Morgan’s polls have generally been better for the Coalition this term than other polls. In the past, Morgan polls nearly always skewed to Labor.

Labor and Albanese have had a long honeymoon since the election, but so did Kevin Rudd after the 2007 election, and he did not even lead Labor to the 2010 election. Honeymoon polling is not predictive of the next election’s result.

Essential: first voting intentions has Labor leading by 51.4-43.1

In last week’s Essential poll, conducted in the days before November 29 from a sample of 1,042, the Guardian reported^[2] that Labor led by 51.4-43.1 with 5.5% undecided in the first time Essential has polled voting intentions since the May election.

If undecided were excluded, Labor would lead by 54.4-45.6. Primary votes^[3] were 33% Labor, 31% Coalition, 13% Greens, 17% for all Others and 6% undecided.

Essential asked respondents^[4] to rate leaders from 0 to 10, then 0-3 ratings were counted as negative, 4-6 as neutral and 7-10 as positive. Albanese’s ratings were 46-23 positive (45-20 in early November), while Dutton’s were 33-28 negative (32-29 previously).

By 46-9, respondents thought Australia’s relationship with China would be better after Labor won the May election, with 44% opting for no different.

On the AUKUS submarine partnership, 44% (down one since September 2021) thought it would make Australia more secure, 39% (up three) said it would not affect our security and 16% (down three) that it would make us less secure.

By 55-11, voters agreed that “the media is too biased to one side of politics”. Greens voters were most likely to agree (63%), but so did Coalition voters (57%), Labor voters (51%) and Other voters (61%). By 47-21, voters agreed that “I feel well-informed about federal politics”.

Morgan poll: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

In last week’s Morgan weekly federal poll^[5], Labor’s lead dropped to 52.5-47.5 (53.5-46.5 the previous week). This poll was taken November 21-27.

Labor’s industrial relations changes pass parliament

Last Friday the House of Representatives passed Labor’s industrial relations^[6] reforms with the Senate’s amendments, after they had passed the Senate Thursday night. Labor had earlier secured support^[7] from David Pocock in the Senate.

The passage of these reforms highlights the importance of two Senate results at the May election: Pocock’s win in the ACT was the first time either territory’s two senators had not split 1-1 between the major parties. And Labor won three of Western Australia’s six senators that were up for election, with the Greens winning one, for a 4-2 left-right split.

Read more: Final Senate results: Labor, the Greens and David Pocock will have a majority of senators^[8]

These two results gave Labor, the Greens and Pocock a combined 39 of the 76 senators, enough to pass legislation opposed by all others.

Victorian upper house: is Transport Matters really winning a seat from second last?

The ABC calculator^[9] currently shows Rod Barton, the lead candidate of Transport Matters in Northeastern Metro region, defeating the Greens to win the fifth and final seat in this region despite being second last on just 0.2% or 0.01 quotas.

In the initial count, Barton was last behind the New Democrats, but correction of an error at a booth put the New Democrats behind Barton, and he receives their preferences starting the spiral that puts him ahead of the Greens at the final count. Labor preferences go to Barton ahead of the Greens.

However, the calculator assumes all votes are above the line. In fact, only 377 of the 649 New Democrats’ votes are above the line^[10], so only these votes will be automatically transferred to Barton when the New ?Democrats are excluded. So Barton will have only 1,153 votes after this, not the 1,425 the calculator gives him.

That will put Barton 199 votes behind Sustainable Australia, the next party that gives him their preferences, not the 73 ahead the calculator shows. Barton will be knocked out early and the Greens will win the final Northeastern Metro seat.

Read more: Labor, Greens and Legalise Cannabis likely to have combined majority in Victorian upper house^[11]

In the lower house^[12], the ABC is calling 52 of 88 seats for Labor, 27 for the Coalition, four Greens and five still undecided. A late Greens surge in Northcote has reduced Labor’s lead to 50.2-49.8 after the Greens conceded when Labor led by 51.2-48.8.

Labor will very likely win Preston, is just ahead in Bass, just behind in Pakenham, and the Coalition will likely win Narracan when the deferred election is held.

Overall lower house late counting has helped the Greens and hurt the Coalition. With 85.7% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC’s statewide two party estimate^[13] is 54.8-45.2 to Labor, with Labor on 37.0% of the primary vote, the Coalition 34.4% and the Greens 11.5%.

Georgia Senate runoff and US midterm poll performance

I covered the United States Georgia Senate runoff for The Poll Bludger^[14] on Saturday; polls now suggest a narrow win for Democrat Raphael Warnock on Wednesday AEDT. US polls for the midterm elections understated Democrats in key Senate contests, in contrast to polls in recent major national elections that have understated the right.

I also covered the November 19 Malaysian election, at which Anwar Ibrahim became PM in a hung parliament. Labour maintains a huge lead in United Kingdom national polls, and had a big swing in its favour at a byelection.

References

1. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
2. ^{^} Guardian reported (www.theguardian.com)
3. ^{^} Primary votes (essentialreport.com.au)
4. ^{^} Essential asked respondents (essentialreport.com.au)
5. ^{^} Morgan weekly federal poll (www.roymorgan.com)
6. ^{^} passed Labor’s industrial relations (www.abc.net.au)
7. ^{^} earlier secured support (www.abc.net.au)
8. ^{^} Final Senate results: Labor, the Greens and David Pocock will have a majority of senators (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} ABC calculator (www.abc.net.au)
10. ^{^} above the line (www.vec.vic.gov.au)
11. ^{^} Labor, Greens and Legalise Cannabis likely to have combined majority in Victorian upper house (theconversation.com)
12. ^{^} lower house (www.abc.net.au)
13. ^{^} statewide two party estimate (www.abc.net.au)
14. ^{^} The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)