The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Morrison is hoping for an election surprise but 'uncommitted' voters rarely turn things around in the final week

  • Written by Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University

The number of voters the Coalition is attempting to sway in the final days of the campaign varies widely, depending on how the targeted voters are defined. But the historical precedent for success to which commentators refer isn’t persuasive.

The party leaders’ final policy announcements and campaign appearances are about shoring up support among voters not yet fully “committed”, pulling “softly committed” voters away from other parties, and persuading those with no clear party preference.

These are the voters pollsters more properly categorise as “don’t knows”, or perhaps “won’t says”, rather than “undecided” – a category that can apply to those who have indicated a choice but aren’t certain about it.

The media will puzzle endlessly over the effectiveness of the leaders’ appeals. Making sense of the evidence, based on varying notions of “commitment”, will be difficult.

The 2004 election is a key reference point. But evidence for a late swing, often said[1] to have saved John Howard that year, needs to be examined carefully.

It’s not clear the number of ‘uncommitted’ voters now is much greater than it has been at other elections. 

Opinion polls are designed to minimise the number of ‘don’t knows’

Opinion polls are designed to minimise the number of “don’t knows”. The greater the “don’t knows”, the greater the uncertainty about voting intentions and the more difficult it is to decide what to do with them.

Should pollsters ignore them on the grounds they will not vote or vote informal? Or find some other way of working out how they might vote?

Conveniently, pollsters also have a way of ensuring the number of “don’t knows” is small. Respondents who initially refuse to say how they intend to vote are usually asked to which party they are “leaning”. Thanks to this step, none of the polls report a “don’t know” figure of more than 7%.

None of the pollsters say how big the share of “don’t knows” is before the “leaning” question is asked. But the proportion is sure to be much greater than 7%.

The ultimate way of minimising the “don’t knows” is not to register them at all.

Jim Reed, who conducts the Resolve poll for the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age, insists[2] respondents choose a party or independent: no “don’t knows” allowed.

The party leaders’ final policy announcements and campaign appearances are about shoring up support among voters not yet fully ‘committed’. AAP Image/Pool, Alex Ellinghausen

But what of respondents who appear ‘decided’ but are not ‘committed’?

However, having forced respondents to choose, Resolve asks respondents: “How firm are you with your vote?”

In its latest poll, recent[3] 86% of respondents are “committed”, 14% are “uncommitted” – a much bigger number than the “don’t knows” reported by other polls.

Party pollsters have their own ways of defining those voters who might be still be “in play”. They ask, for example, about the “hesitations” voters have about Labor/Albanese or the Liberals/Morrison.

The major parties obviously think carefully about the voters they might be able to shift from a minor party or independent, or between Labor and Liberal.

But they also hope to persuade voters who are going to vote first for other parties or independents, to preference them so that they get their vote, two-party preferred.

The numbers the parties are looking to influence vary, but they are much higher than the conventional “don’t knows” or Resolve’s “uncommitted”.

Ahead of the Liberals’s policy speech, the prime minister put[4] the number of voters “either undecided or opting for a minor party of independents” at about 25%.

In the Weekend Australian, Dennis Shanahan put the number even higher. In addition to those intending to vote for minor parties or independents, he says[5], are those who are “officially uncommitted”, totalling “at least one in three voters”.

There are not enough ‘undecideds’ to neutralise Labor’s lead

Where the proportion that “don’t know” is small, and the gap on the two-party preferred wide – as it is in some, though not all, of the polls – the chances of the “don’t knows” making a difference isn’t great.

In theory, Labor needs 51.8% of the two-party vote to win.

So, even if the “don’t knows” split 2:1 in favour of the Coalition, this would only reduce the the gap in the Morgan poll from six points (47-53) to four (48-52) – not enough to prevent a Labor majority. In the Newspoll, it would reduce it to six (47-53).

The “uncommitted” vote offers the Coalition much greater hope. But caution is called for.

It’s not clear the number of “uncommitted” voters now is much greater than it has been at other elections.

More to the point, there have been few if any elections when, in the last week, it has been the “uncommitted” voters who have turned things around.

Take 2004 with a grain of salt

For those contemplating a boil-over, the 2004 election looms large.

Behind in the polls with about a week to go, the story goes, Howard wrong-footed Labor with his forests’ policy; Labor then shot itself in the other foot when Mark Latham, with a day to go, appeared to grab Howard’s hand and pull Howard towards him.

According[6] to then Liberal campaign director, Brian Loughnane, Latham’s handshake generated more feedback to Liberal Party headquarters than anything else during the six-week campaign, and “brought together all the doubts and hesitations that people had about Mark Latham”.

Late in the 2004 election campaign, Labor’s Mark Latham appeared to grab John Howard’s hand and pull it. AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

But the Coalition’s support peaked not at the end of the campaign but in the first few weeks.

It went on to win by a massive majority: 24 seats. Well before the final week, the Coalition already had it won.

Whether or not the “uncommitted” prevent Labor winning this time, the part they played in securing the 2004 win for Howard is more Liberal legend than political science.

References

  1. ^ said (theconversation.com)
  2. ^ insists (www.smh.com.au)
  3. ^ recent (www.smh.com.au)
  4. ^ put (www.afr.com)
  5. ^ says (www.theaustralian.com.au)
  6. ^ According (www.tandfonline.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/morrison-is-hoping-for-an-election-surprise-but-uncommitted-voters-rarely-turn-things-around-in-the-final-week-183131

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...