The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

How long can Vladimir Putin hold on to power?

  • Written by William Partlett, Associate Professor, The University of Melbourne
How long can Vladimir Putin hold on to power?

As the war in Ukraine drags on and sanctions start to bite, key questions are being asked. How long can President Vladimir Putin remain in power? Will he be overthrown in a palace coup, as recent rumours have suggested[1]? And can the system of centralised rule he built outlast him?

We can find neglected answers[2] to these questions in the Russian Constitution. This document, and its forgotten importance to Putin’s authority, suggest that although Putin is likely to remain in office in the short term, Russia faces significant long term instability.

Russian crown-presidentialism

The conventional story of Putin’s grip on the presidency rightly points to his informal power over Russia’s elites, grounded on his training in spycraft[3]. But these accounts forget the central role of formal constitutional rules in keeping Putin at the top.

The story starts almost 30 years ago, amid the ruins of the collapsing Soviet Union. After Russia nearly descended into a civil war in the autumn of 1993, then-President Boris Yeltsin made key changes to the working constitutional draft.

He did not change the provisions protecting individual rights, but he did insert rules that created the basis for a vastly powerful presidency, one that could dominate both formal and informal politics. This “crown-presidential” constitutional design has undermined Russian democratic state-building ever since.

In the 1990s, Yeltsin and his Western supporters saw these powers as a necessary expedient, a kind of “democratic battering ram” able to make the difficult (and often unpopular) choices seen as necessary for building free market economics. Yeltsin used these constitutional powers to pursue neo-liberal economic reforms and wage a brutal war in Chechnya.

The power of the Russian president can be traced back to constitutional changes made by Boris Yeltsin in 1993. AAP/AP

But, constrained by the West and some of his advisors, Yeltsin also decentralised power to the regional governors and tolerated a pluralistic media. Focusing on these checks on presidential power, as well as the long list of rights and democratic guarantees in the constitution, most observers and commentators declared Russia to be a young democracy.

This all changed in 2000, when Vladimir Putin became president. Declaring a “dictatorship of the law”, Putin empowered central legal institutions to enforce Russia’s constitutional system of presidential dominance.

Read more: How can Russia's invasion of Ukraine end? Here's how peace negotiations have worked in past wars[4]

This allowed Putin to assert personal control[5] over the oligarchs and the regional governors. It also allowed him to monopolise television media, giving him control over the type of political information being given to the Russian people.

Since then, Putin has continued to rely heavily on the constitutional order to maintain his personal power. In the aftermath of the fraudulent 2011 election, Putin used his control over prosecutors and courts to crack down hard on a growing opposition movement.

After large demonstrations in the wake of the 2011 election, Vladimir Putin used his powers to crack down hard on the opposition. AAP/AP/Mikhail Metzel

In 2020, he changed key provisions[6] in the constitution to further consolidate personal control over Russian politics. These presidential powers remain a critical aspect of his personal power today.

What does this mean for Russia’s future?

This central role of constitutional law in Russian governance tells us a great deal about Russia’s future. In the short-term, the vast powers granted to the office of the president will ensure Russian stability, allowing Putin to retain loyal associates and remove any dissenters.

However, in the long-term, these presidential powers will foster Russian instability. The personalisation of power in this kind of system has already weakened institutions (such as the Russian military) and triggered poor decision-making (such as the decision to invade Ukraine). These problems will worsen.

Read more: What can the West do to help Ukraine? It can start by countering Putin's information strategy[7]

The question of who will replace Putin will also trigger a bitter and destabilising struggle to gain control over the Russian presidency. A post-Putin Russia must change these constitutional rules to not only build democracy, but also ensure long-term stability.

Moreover, the fact the West backed this constitutional system in 1993 shows how much we have to learn about the centrality of constitutional provisions ensuring checks and balances on presidential power in ensuring democracy and human rights.

Read more https://theconversation.com/how-long-can-vladimir-putin-hold-on-to-power-181500

The Times Features

How to Protect Your Garden Trees from Wind Damage in Australia

In Australia's expansive landscape, garden trees hold noteworthy significance. They not only enhance the aesthetic appeal of our homes but also play an integral role in the local...

Brisbane Homeowners Warned: Non-Compliant Flexible Hoses Pose High Flood Risk

As a homeowner in Brisbane, when you think of the potential for flood damage to your home, you probably think of weather events. But you should know that there may be a tickin...

Argan Oil-Infused Moroccanoil Shampoo: Nourish and Revitalize Your Hair

Are you ready to transform your hair from dull and lifeless to vibrant and full of life? Look no further than the luxurious embrace of Argan Oil-Infused Moroccanoil Shampoo! In a...

Building A Strong Foundation For Any Structure

Building a home or commercial building can be very exciting. The possibilities are endless and the future is interesting. You can always change aspects of the building to meet the ...

The Role of a Family Dentist: Why Every Household Needs One

source A family dentist isn’t like your regular dentist who may specialise in a particular age group and whom you visit only when something goes wrong. A family dentist takes proa...

Benefits of Getting an Online Medical Certificate

Everyone has experienced it. Rather than taking a break, you drag yourself to the doctor's office, where you have to wait in lengthy lines, and then you have to hurry to get that...

Times Magazine

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

How AI-Driven SEO Enhancements Can Improve Headless CMS Content Visibility

Whereas SEO (search engine optimization) is critical in the digital landscape for making connections to content, much of it is still done manually keyword research, metatags, final tweaks at publication requiring a human element that takes extensiv...

Crypto Expert John Fenga Reveals How Blockchain is Revolutionising Charity

One of the most persistent challenges in the charity sector is trust. Donors often wonder whether their contributions are being used effectively or if overhead costs consume a significant portion. Traditional fundraising methods can be opaque, with...

Navigating Parenting Arrangements in Australia: A Legal Guide for Parents

Understanding Parenting Arrangements in Australia. Child custody disputes are often one of the most emotionally charged aspects of separation or divorce. Parents naturally want what is best for their children, but the legal process of determining ...

Blocky Adventures: A Minecraft Movie Celebration for Your Wrist

The Minecraft movie is almost here—and it’s time to get excited! With the film set to hit theaters on April 4, 2025, fans have a brand-new reason to celebrate. To honor the upcoming blockbuster, watchfaces.co has released a special Minecraft-inspir...

The Ultimate Guide to Apple Watch Faces & Trending Wallpapers

In today’s digital world, personalization is everything. Your smartwatch isn’t just a timepiece—it’s an extension of your style. Thanks to innovative third-party developers, customizing your Apple Watch has reached new heights with stunning designs...

LayBy Shopping