The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Weather forecasts won't save us – we must pre-empt monster floods years before they hit

  • Written by Mark Gibbs, Leader of the Knowledge to Innovation team, Institute for Future Environments and Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology
home with flood debris in front

Most people’s lives are largely removed from nature. We spend our days in temperature-controlled rooms, immersed in virtual environments. Our cars transport us from underground car parks to our garages in comfort, no matter what the outside conditions.

And when a natural hazard hits, we often rely on technology-driven weather forecasts to understand and avoid the risks.

But now, Southeast Queensland and parts of New South Wales are inundated yet again. Clearly, short-term weather forecasts alone are not enough to protect communities in times like these.

Withstanding natural disasters requires recognising the threat earlier, and enacting the systemic change needed to survive.

home with flood debris in front
Withstanding natural disasters requires recognising the threat earlier. Jason O'Brien/AAP

Living with nature

The public demands accurate weather forecasts. People want to know how the weather will affect their family, work and social schedules so they can minimise the disruptions.

The technology used to determine future weather conditions is continually being refined. Now, sophisticated computer models churn out 24/7 forecasts and radars provide real-time images of where rain is falling.

But projecting the arrival and behaviour of extreme weather remains challenging.

These events, such as intense rain, can develop and intensify within hours. Short-term forecasts often change throughout the day as conditions develop.

The recent heavy rain and flooding shows how we’re pushing the limits of this technology. It has also exposed vulnerabilities in our collective ability to apply the information generated.

Read more: The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter[1]

woman in rainy street with umbrella
Intense rain can develop within hours. Damian Shaw/AAP

Advancing technologies

Australia has the fourth-largest[2] weather radar network in the world.

Radars work by emitting electromagnetic waves. When the waves hit an object, such as a water in the atmosphere, the signal bounces back to the radar. This information is then converted into data on a map that can be viewed by the public.

Rain radars tell us where rain is falling, and how heavily. Experts can use this information to infer what the rain might do next. But weather forecasting is not an exact science and, as with any technology, there’s always room for improvement.

For example, changes to coastal temperatures and humidity over small areas, in a short period, can thwart a forecast’s accuracy[3].

Forecasters also use weather models – computers that simulate conditions in the atmosphere, ocean, and above land and apply mathematical equations to predict future weather.

Low pressure systems and especially east coast and tropical lows, which can lead to storms, are harder to predict[4] than high pressure systems which tend to bring calm conditions.

weather radar image of east coast
Rain radars tell us where rain is falling and how heavily. BOM

Read more: All hail new weather radar technology, which can spot hailstones lurking in thunderstorms[5]

Wired to predict

There is widespread misunderstanding of what rain radars actually tell us. They show what is happening now, and what has just occurred. They do not predict future conditions.

But the human brains is wired[6] to predict. So people sometimes make assumptions about the trajectory and future intensity of storm cells they see in radar images.

The media can also undermine the credibility of the forecasting system. News reporting of weather events can sometimes be over-dramatised. And the media does not always update its coverage of extreme weather forecasts – for example, not telling the public when a weather warning has been downgraded.

Just-in-time flood response is risky

We can’t directly stop natural hazards occurring. But we can try to make communities better able to withstand them.

Relying on just-in-time weather information is a poor substitute for better planning and preparedness.

For months, we’ve known this summer would be wet. But sadly, many in the community did not act on these projections.

A La Niña event occurred in the summer of 2020-21 and brought above-average rain and widespread floods[7]. As others have noted[8], since 1958 about half of La Niña events have reoccurred the following year.

So the odds were already in favour of the 2021-22 summer also being wet. And the second La Niña was confirmed[9] in November.

But by and large, these indications were not acted upon.

For example, the Queensland government delivers a generic advertising campaign for storm awareness, but it’s not tailored to specific seasonal conditions or impending events[10].

Read more: Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared[11]

As reported[12] in The Conversation this week, Australia has a poor record on implementing plans for natural disaster risk reduction. This includes the National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy, released late last year, which contains no new funding and little detail.

At a government agency level, better flood preparedness would involve, among other things, overhauling planning laws to ensure the built environment is resilient to natural hazards.

It would also involve ensuring local councils are properly resourced[13] to help residents on the ground.

Individuals can also take action to minimise flood damage to their property.

I spent last week cleaning mud from the basement of a large apartment block in Brisbane. The damage showed very clearly which residents had moved or protected valuables in basement areas well in advance of the water, and which had not.

people scrub walls and floors
During the flood clean up, it can become clear who was prepared and who was not. Jono Searle

Back to the future

The flooding in Queensland comes just a decade or so after the devastating Brisbane floods.

The new disaster is expected[14] to cost the state’s economy up to A$2.5 billion. Insurance claims on damaged homes and businesses will be close to $1 billion.

Flooding in future is inevitable, especially under climate change which will likely bring more frequent and severe bursts of rain.

Relying on short-term weather forecasts to prepare for such events is deeply unwise. Becoming resilient to natural disasters means preparing weeks, months and years in advance.

Read more: Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared[15]

References

  1. ^ The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter (theconversation.com)
  2. ^ fourth-largest (media.bom.gov.au)
  3. ^ thwart a forecast’s accuracy (eos.org)
  4. ^ harder to predict (www.abc.net.au)
  5. ^ All hail new weather radar technology, which can spot hailstones lurking in thunderstorms (theconversation.com)
  6. ^ wired (theconversation.com)
  7. ^ widespread floods (www.sbs.com.au)
  8. ^ have noted (theconversation.com)
  9. ^ confirmed (theconversation.com)
  10. ^ impending events (www.qbcc.qld.gov.au)
  11. ^ Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared (theconversation.com)
  12. ^ reported (theconversation.com)
  13. ^ properly resourced (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ expected (www.abc.net.au)
  15. ^ Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/weather-forecasts-wont-save-us-we-must-pre-empt-monster-floods-years-before-they-hit-178767

The Times Features

Itinerary to Maximize Your Two-Week Adventure in Vietnam and Cambodia

Two weeks may not seem like much, but it’s just the right time for travelers to explore the best of Vietnam and Cambodia. From the bustling streets of Hanoi to the magnificent te...

How to Protect Your Garden Trees from Wind Damage in Australia

In Australia's expansive landscape, garden trees hold noteworthy significance. They not only enhance the aesthetic appeal of our homes but also play an integral role in the local...

Brisbane Homeowners Warned: Non-Compliant Flexible Hoses Pose High Flood Risk

As a homeowner in Brisbane, when you think of the potential for flood damage to your home, you probably think of weather events. But you should know that there may be a tickin...

Argan Oil-Infused Moroccanoil Shampoo: Nourish and Revitalize Your Hair

Are you ready to transform your hair from dull and lifeless to vibrant and full of life? Look no further than the luxurious embrace of Argan Oil-Infused Moroccanoil Shampoo! In a...

Building A Strong Foundation For Any Structure

Building a home or commercial building can be very exciting. The possibilities are endless and the future is interesting. You can always change aspects of the building to meet the ...

The Role of a Family Dentist: Why Every Household Needs One

source A family dentist isn’t like your regular dentist who may specialise in a particular age group and whom you visit only when something goes wrong. A family dentist takes proa...

Times Magazine

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

How AI-Driven SEO Enhancements Can Improve Headless CMS Content Visibility

Whereas SEO (search engine optimization) is critical in the digital landscape for making connections to content, much of it is still done manually keyword research, metatags, final tweaks at publication requiring a human element that takes extensiv...

Crypto Expert John Fenga Reveals How Blockchain is Revolutionising Charity

One of the most persistent challenges in the charity sector is trust. Donors often wonder whether their contributions are being used effectively or if overhead costs consume a significant portion. Traditional fundraising methods can be opaque, with...

Navigating Parenting Arrangements in Australia: A Legal Guide for Parents

Understanding Parenting Arrangements in Australia. Child custody disputes are often one of the most emotionally charged aspects of separation or divorce. Parents naturally want what is best for their children, but the legal process of determining ...

Blocky Adventures: A Minecraft Movie Celebration for Your Wrist

The Minecraft movie is almost here—and it’s time to get excited! With the film set to hit theaters on April 4, 2025, fans have a brand-new reason to celebrate. To honor the upcoming blockbuster, watchfaces.co has released a special Minecraft-inspir...

The Ultimate Guide to Apple Watch Faces & Trending Wallpapers

In today’s digital world, personalization is everything. Your smartwatch isn’t just a timepiece—it’s an extension of your style. Thanks to innovative third-party developers, customizing your Apple Watch has reached new heights with stunning designs...

LayBy Shopping