The Times Australia
Business and Money
Times Media

.

Which jobs are most at risk from the coronavirus shutdown? 

  • Written by Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

The immediate impact of the coronavirus shutdown is striking in its magnitude, its speed and its concentration on a small set of industries.

My attempt to identify where the virus and the shutdown will have the biggest effect suggests that in February 2020 about 2.7 million[1] workers were employed in the most exposed industries.

And while it won’t be possible to know for sure until April 16 when we get data from the Bureau of Statistics on the labour force in March, I believe it’s reasonable to think the jobs of about 900,000 are already under threat.

Which jobs are most at risk?

In the table below I list those whom I think are most at risk.

For one group of about 1.4 million workers – primarily in industries involving eating out, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and air travel – the loss of work is the inevitable result of government shutdowns.

image February 2020, ABS 6291.0.55.003[2]

Another group, comprising about 900 thousand workers, are in retail trades (non-food) and personal services, where the effect on jobs is coming from consumers cutting spending apart from on essential items.

image February 2020, ABS 6291.0.55.003[3]

Workers in both at-risk groups are predominantly young. More than half are under 35 years of age. Six out of seven are employees. About one in every seven is an owner/manager or works in a family business.

A slightly higher proportion are female than male. They are evenly split between full-time and part-time.

Some industries will grow

Some industries are seeing rapid increases in demand due to the coronavirus. They include the retail grocery trade and associated logistic services, and the supply of office essentials needed to work at home.

In a relatively short period there is also likely to be an increase in demand from the health care and health services industries.

Other areas where increased demand seems likely are the home delivery of goods bought online, cleaning services and services usually undertaken by volunteers and government agencies who are occupied dealing with COVID-19.

The total workforce will shrink

So far there has been little impact of the supply of workers, but it will happen.

It is beginning to occur as schools and childcare centres close and workers withdraw in order to care for their children, and it is accentuated by parents not wanting to risk outsourcing the task to grandparents.

In the coming weeks, there will be further hits to labour supply as illness from COVID-19 causes workers to need to take leave and other workers withdraw to provide care for family members who become ill.

Read more: Here's a bright idea should schools have to close: enlist childcare workers as nannies for health workers[4]

It is difficult to be precise about the magnitude of withdrawal from the labour market, but it is potentially large.

To start with, most of the impact is likely to come from withdrawal for caring or to avoid illness.

As an indication of the potential scale of withdrawal, in 2019 there were 1.21 million[5] families with children aged from 0-9 years in which either a sole parent or both parents were in paid work.

Read more: State-by-state: how Australia's new coronavirus rules will affect you[6]

In 2016 there were 634,500[7] people aged 65 to 84 doing voluntary work.

Workers becoming ill might also have a substantial impact on labour supply.

Under a (hopefully pessimistic) scenario that COVID-19 continues its current rate of growth over the next three weeks, with those infected in the previous two weeks then unable to work, this would be about 67,500 persons out of work due to illness.

COVID-19 has already had a dramatic effect on employment – that much is evident from news images of queues at Centrelink.

Further impacts are almost certain in coming weeks.

image February 2020, ABS 6291.0.55.003[8]

The scale and speed of what’s happening is creating the most serious labour market policy challenge of the post-war era.

Authors: Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Read more https://theconversation.com/which-jobs-are-most-at-risk-from-the-coronavirus-shutdown-134680

SME Business News

Australian Companies Boost Design Investments by 63%

Australia is undergoing a significant transformation in how businesses approach design, with increasing recognition of its critical role in driving operations and innovation. According to tw...

Will the Wage Price Index growth ease financial pressure for households?

The Wage Price Index’s quarterly increase of 0.8% has been met with mixed reactions. While Australian wages continue to increase, it was the smallest increase in two and a half years, providi...

Protecting Your Business from Cyber Threats: The Critical Role of Legal Support in Data Breach Response

In today’s digital world, cybersecurity threats pose a significant risk to businesses of all sizes. A data breach can lead to severe consequences, such as financial losses, damage to a company’...

Kyndryl ANZ appoints new Head of Strategic Partnerships and Alliances

Former Head of Marketing to lead and grow Kyndryl’s local channel ecosystem and bolster technological capabilities Kyndryl has strengthened its local leadership team with the appointment of ...

The Times Features

HCF’s Healthy Hearts Roadshow Wraps Up 2024 with a Final Regional Sprint

Next week marks the final leg of the HCF Healthy Hearts Roadshow for 2024, bringing free heart health checks to some of NSW’s most vibrant regional communities. As Australia’s ...

The Budget-Friendly Traveler: How Off-Airport Car Hire Can Save You Money

When planning a trip, transportation is one of the most crucial considerations. For many, the go-to option is renting a car at the airport for convenience. But what if we told ...

Air is an overlooked source of nutrients – evidence shows we can inhale some vitamins

You know that feeling you get when you take a breath of fresh air in nature? There may be more to it than a simple lack of pollution. When we think of nutrients, we think of t...

FedEx Australia Announces Christmas Shipping Cut-Off Dates To Help Beat the Holiday Rush

With Christmas just around the corner, FedEx is advising Australian shoppers to get their presents sorted early to ensure they arrive on time for the big day. FedEx has reveale...

Will the Wage Price Index growth ease financial pressure for households?

The Wage Price Index’s quarterly increase of 0.8% has been met with mixed reactions. While Australian wages continue to increase, it was the smallest increase in two and a half...

Back-to-School Worries? 70% of Parents Fear Their Kids Aren’t Ready for Day On

Australian parents find themselves confronting a key decision: should they hold back their child on the age border for another year before starting school? Recent research from...

Business Times

Australian Companies Boost Design Investments by 63%

Australia is undergoing a significant transformation in how businesses approach design, with increasing recognition of it...

Will the Wage Price Index growth ease financial pressure for hous…

The Wage Price Index’s quarterly increase of 0.8% has been met with mixed reactions. While Australian wages continue to i...

Protecting Your Business from Cyber Threats: The Critical Role of…

In today’s digital world, cybersecurity threats pose a significant risk to businesses of all sizes. A data breach can lead ...