Labor gains big lead in a Morgan poll, but drops back in YouGov

A national Morgan poll^[1], conducted March 10–16 from a sample of 2,097, gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for Labor since the March 3–9 Morgan poll. This is Labor’s largest lead in a Morgan poll since August 2023.

Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down three), 32.5% Labor (up 2.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (steady), 10.5% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 2.5-point gain for Labor.

By 50.5–35, respondents thought the country was going in the wrong direction (51.5–33 previously). However, Morgan’s consumer confidence index^[2] slid 3.1 points to 83.8, its lowest this year.

Voters were blaming Donald Trump for the stock market falls, and this was hurting the Coalition. The stock market had a better week last week, but Trump is likely to impose more tariffs on April 2.

Morgan is a volatile poll that reacts more to news events than other polls. This poll was taken in the week Trump imposed his steel and aluminium tariffs on Australia. It’s likely that this poll is a pro-Labor outlier, with other polls not giving Labor big leads. Here is the poll graph.

The ABC’s Patricia Karvelas^[3] wrote on March 17 that a Talbot Mills poll, conducted March 6–12 from a sample of 1,051, asked about Trump’s ratings with Australians for his performance as US president.

Trump was down six points since February to net -14 approval (51% disapprove, 37% approve). There was a six-point increase in strongly disapprove to 40%, with strongly approve down one to 15%. By 65–22, respondents disapproved of the US imposing tariffs on Australia.

Coalition gains in YouGov poll for a 50–50 tie

A national YouGov poll^[4], conducted March 14–19 from a sample of 1,500, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the March 7–13 YouGov poll.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 7% One Nation (down 0.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 8% independents (down one) and 3% others (up one). YouGov is using weaker preference flows for Labor than occurred in 2022, and this poll would give Labor about a 51.5–48.5 lead by 2022 flows.

Albanese’s net approval^[5] was down three points to -9, with 50% dissatisfied and 41% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval was up one point to -5. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–40 (45–39 previously).

Essential poll tied at 47–47 but Albanese’s ratings jump

A national Essential poll^[6], conducted March 12–16 from a larger than normal sample of 2,256, had a 47–47 tie including undecided by respondent preferences (48–47 to the Coalition in early March).

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady compared with UAP), 9% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (up one). By 2022 preference flows, this poll would give Labor about a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to +1, with 46% approving and 45% disapproving. This is Albanese’s first positive net approval in Essential since October 2023. Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -5, his worst since January 2024.

By 48–35, respondents thought Australia was on the wrong track (49–34 previously).

On climate change^[7], 54% (down five since October 2021) said “climate change is happening and is caused by human activity”, while 35% (up five) thought “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”. This is the lowest lead for human activity in Essential’s graph which goes back to 2016.

On addressing climate change, 35% (up two since November) thought Australia is not doing enough, 34% (down three) doing enough and 19% (steady) doing too much.

By 39–30, voters opposed the Coalition’s policy of removing working from home provisions for public service workers. By 39–33, voters opposed Australia sending troops to Ukraine.

By 53–33, voters thought Trump’s presidency would have a negative impact on the US economy, by 62–24 negative for the global economy and by 61–20 negative for the Australian economy.

Labor gains lead in a Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge poll, conducted March 3–11 from a sample of 2,007, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the previous Redbridge poll^[8] in early February. Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down three), 32% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (up one) and 19% for all Others (up one).

By 51–29, respondents thought things were headed in the wrong direction (49–32 in November 2024).

There has been more criticism of AUKUS from the left since Trump’s election, but by 51–19 respondents said AUKUS makes Australia safer (49–19 in July 2024). There was pro-AUKUS movement on other questions.

Polls in Greens target seats

The Poll Bludger reported last Tuesday^[9] on polls of seats either held by the Greens or plausible targets for them. These polls were taken by Insightfully for the right-wing Advance, and first reported by the News Corp tabloids. Sample sizes were 600 per seat with no fieldwork dates provided. Seat polls are unreliable.

The Greens hold three Queensland federal seats (Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane), and one Victorian seat (Melbourne). On the primary votes provided, the Greens would retain Griffith, Ryan would be line-ball between the Greens and Liberal National Party. Brisbane would be gained by Labor.

In Victoria, the Greens would hold Melbourne and gain Macnamara from Labor, while Labor would retain Wills against a Greens challenge.

Unemployment steady despite jobs fall

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported last Thursday that the unemployment rate was 4.1% in February^[10], unchanged from January. This was despite a 52,800 decrease in jobs that didn’t affect unemployment owing to a lower participation rate.

The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Australians that are employed) was down 0.3% since a record high in January to 64.1%.

WA election final lower house seats

At the March 8 Western Australian election^[11], Labor won 46 of the 59 lower house seats (down seven from the record landslide in 2021^[12]), the Liberals seven (up five) and the Nationals six (up two). Comparing this election with 2017^[13], which was a big win for Labor, Labor is up five seats, the Liberals down six and the Nationals up one.

In 2017, Labor won 69.5% of lower house seats, in 2021 90% and in 2025 78%. If the WA lower house had as many seats as the federal House of Representatives (150), Labor would have won over 100 seats in all three elections.

In the upper house^[14], 75.7% of enrolled voters has been counted, compared with 82.7% in the lower house. On current figures, Labor is likely to win 16 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Greens four, the Nationals two, and One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and Australian Christians one each.

Two seats are unclear, with an independent group (0.47 quotas) and Animal Justice (0.45) just ahead of One Nation’s second candidate (0.40). As the count has progressed, the Liberals have dropped and the Greens have risen. ABC election analyst Antony Green said^[15] the inclusion of below the line votes could put Labor’s 16th seat in doubt, with the Greens possibly winning five seats.

References

1. ^{^} Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
2. ^{^} Morgan’s consumer confidence index (www.roymorgan.com)
3. ^{^} ABC’s Patricia Karvelas (www.abc.net.au)
4. ^{^} YouGov poll (au.yougov.com)
5. ^{^} net approval (theconversation.com)
6. ^{^} Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
7. ^{^} climate change (essentialreport.com.au)
8. ^{^} Redbridge poll (theconversation.com)
9. ^{^} Poll Bludger reported last Tuesday (www.pollbludger.net)
10. ^{^} the unemployment rate was 4.1% in February (www.abs.gov.au)
11. ^{^} Western Australian election (www.abc.net.au)
12. ^{^} record landslide in 2021 (en.wikipedia.org)
13. ^{^} election with 2017 (en.wikipedia.org)
14. ^{^} upper house (www.abc.net.au)
15. ^{^} ABC election analyst Antony Green said (antonygreen.com.au)