The Times Australia
The Times Australia

.

Employers report a substantial rise in pay expectations but also forecast a rise in redundancies


Australian workers' prospects for stronger real wage growth this financial year have been bolstered by a significant rise in employers' pay expectations according to the latest survey from the Australian HR Institute (AHRI).

AHRI’s September Quarterly Work Outlook report shows that employers expect the mean basic pay increase (excluding bonuses) to be 3.8% in the 12 months to July 2025, an increase from the 3% previously predicted for the 12 months to April 2025.

This is the highest figure for wage intentions recorded in any of our six Australian Work Outlook surveys published to date. With the RBA forecasting that CPI inflation will fall to 2.8% by June 2025*, the data offers hope for workers of a stronger, sustained increase in real wages this financial year.

The report, which surveyed 600+ senior HR professionals and decision-makers, also found that while there has been an increase in the percentage of employers planning to make redundancies this quarter (from 23% to 27%) recruitment intentions have remained high at 68% - reflecting a strong and balanced overall employment outlook.

There were significant differences in redundancy intentions between sectors, with 60% of public sector employers anticipating job cuts in the September quarter—up from 31% in the June quarter—while redundancy intentions in the private sector remain unchanged at 21%.

Recruitment intentions were also considerably higher in the public sector (88%) than the private sector (62%).

AHRI CEO Sarah McCann-Bartlett said the figures could be more about restructuring than job cuts.

“This is potentially about the different skills that are needed as more organisations embrace digitisation, automation and AI in pursuit of higher productivity and growth. The redundancy figures could therefore be about restructuring and preparing for the future rather than cost savings. These incremental changes will have an ongoing impact on the composition of the workforce, including higher quality jobs in Australian workplaces. Indeed, the survey data suggests that the net effect of this activity will be to increase employment levels, mirroring the trends in the official data.

Other key findings include:

  • Ongoing recruitment difficulties: The share of organisations experiencing recruitment difficulties has remained flat at 39% in the September quarter, around the same level as in the June quarter (40%).

  • Staff expansion: 45% of organisations are intending to increase staff levels, compared to only 3% anticipating workforce reductions.

  • Employee turnover: The average employee turnover for the 12 months to the end of June 2024 was 15%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Employee turnover was higher in the public sector (19%) than in the private sector (15%).

McCann-Bartlett said the findings highlight the ongoing tightness in the Australian labour market, despite a slight cooling of some key labour market indicators. This has significant implications for HR professionals who might expect an imminent easing of recruitment and retention pressures, underscoring the need for employers to engage, reward and retain employees.

She emphasised the difficulty in finding people with the right skills and noted that as roles and responsibilities continue to evolve, organisations need to invest in skill development to overcome workforce gaps; especially for those in roles that are most at risk of displacement.

“My message to employees is that they should be advocating for upskilling within their organisations while job seekers should be focused on acquiring in-demand skills.”

“HR professionals are in an unusual situation where they are having to manage the 4Rs - managing recruitment, redundancies, retention and reorganisation at the same time. While this may seem paradoxical, it reflects the increasingly complex ways employers are changing the composition of their workforce through digitisation, automation and AI. To reap the productivity benefits of these changes to technology, HR professionals also need to adopt a systematic approach to consulting, involving and training across the entire workforce.”

*About the AHRI Net Employment Intentions Balance Index

The AHRI Net Employment Intentions Index is calculated by taking the percentage of employers intending to increase staffing levels and subtracting the percentage of employers intending to decrease staffing levels:

  • An index of +100 would mean that all organisations intend to increase staffing levels

  • An index of -100 would mean that all organisations intend to decrease staffing levels

  • A 0 index could mean that either all organisations expect no change in employment levels, or that 50% of employers intend to increase staffing levels while the other 50% intend to decrease staffing levels

About the report

AHRI’s Quarterly Australian Work Outlook is a quarterly survey report of employers that offers an early indication of future changes to the Australian labour market, including: net employment balance, recruitment and redundancy intentions for the next three months, current labour turnover rates and wage growth for the year ahead.

For this report, market research firm YouGov surveyed 609 senior business decision makers across all Australian states and territories, between 1-11 July 2024.

Temu’s Local Seller Program opens fully in Australia

Local businesses of all sizes across Australia now have a new, low-cost channel to reach millions of online sh...

Times Magazine

Building an AI-First Culture in Your Company

AI isn't just something to think about anymore - it's becoming part of how we live and work, whether we like it or not. At the office, it definitely helps us move faster. But here's the thing: just using tools like ChatGPT or plugging AI into your wo...

Data Management Isn't Just About Tech—Here’s Why It’s a Human Problem Too

Photo by Kevin Kuby Manuel O. Diaz Jr.We live in a world drowning in data. Every click, swipe, medical scan, and financial transaction generates information, so much that managing it all has become one of the biggest challenges of our digital age. Bu...

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

The Times Features

Is our mental health determined by where we live – or is it the other way round? New research sheds more light

Ever felt like where you live is having an impact on your mental health? Turns out, you’re not imagining things. Our new analysis[1] of eight years of data from the New Zeal...

Going Off the Beaten Path? Here's How to Power Up Without the Grid

There’s something incredibly freeing about heading off the beaten path. No traffic, no crowded campsites, no glowing screens in every direction — just you, the landscape, and the...

West HQ is bringing in a season of culinary celebration this July

Western Sydney’s leading entertainment and lifestyle precinct is bringing the fire this July and not just in the kitchen. From $29 lobster feasts and award-winning Asian banque...

What Endo Took and What It Gave Me

From pain to purpose: how one woman turned endometriosis into a movement After years of misdiagnosis, hormone chaos, and major surgery, Jo Barry was done being dismissed. What beg...

Why Parents Must Break the Silence on Money and Start Teaching Financial Skills at Home

Australia’s financial literacy rates are in decline, and our kids are paying the price. Certified Money Coach and Financial Educator Sandra McGuire, who has over 20 years’ exp...

Australia’s Grill’d Transforms Operations with Qlik

Boosting Burgers and Business Clean, connected data powers real-time insights, smarter staffing, and standout customer experiences Sydney, Australia, 14 July 2025 – Qlik®, a g...