The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Yellowstone is losing its snow as the climate warms, and that means widespread problems for water and wildlife – a new report details the changes

  • Written by Bryan Shuman, Professor of Paleoclimatology and Paleoecology, University of Wyoming

When you picture Yellowstone National Park[1] and its neighbor, Grand Teton[2], the snowcapped peaks and Old Faithful Geyser almost certainly come to mind. Climate change threatens all of these iconic scenes, and its impact reaches far beyond the parks’ borders.

A new assessment of climate change[3] in the two national parks and surrounding forests and ranchland warns of the potential for significant changes as the region continues to heat up.

Map showing the parks and forest land within the Greater Yellowstone Area The Greater Yellowstone Area includes both Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks, as well as surrounding national forests and federal land. National Park Service[4]

Since 1950, average temperatures in the Greater Yellowstone Area have risen 2.3 degrees[5] Fahrenheit (1.3 C), and potentially more importantly, the region has lost a quarter of its annual snowfall. With the region projected to warm 5-6 F by 2061-2080[6], compared with the average from 1986-2005, and by as much as 10-11 F by the end of the century, the high country around Yellowstone is poised to lose its snow altogether.

The loss of snow there has repercussions for a vast range of ecosystems and wildlife, as well as cities and farms downstream that rely on rivers that start in these mountains.

Broad impact on wildlife and ecosystems

The Greater Yellowstone Area comprises 22 million acres[7] in northwest Wyoming and portions of Montana and Idaho. In addition to geysers and hot springs, it’s home to the southernmost range of grizzly bear populations in North America and some of the longest intact wildlife migrations[8], including the seasonal traverses of elk, pronghorn, mule deer and bison.

The area also represents the one point where the three major river basins of the western U.S. converge. The rivers of the Snake-Columbia basin, Green-Colorado basin, and Missouri River Basin all begin as snow on the Continental Divide as it weaves across Yellowstone’s peaks and plateaus.

A bear and cub walking along a river in Yellowstone National Park. Less water in rivers can harm cutthroat trout, which grizzly bears and other wildlife rely on for food. Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images[9]

How climate change alters the Greater Yellowstone Area is, therefore, a question with implications far beyond the impact on Yellowstone’s declining cutthroat trout[10] population and disruptions to the food supplies[11] critical for the region’s recovering grizzly population. By altering the water supply, it also shapes the fate of major Western reservoirs and their dependent cities and farms hundreds of miles downstream.

Rising temperatures also increase the risk of large forest fires[12] like those that scarred Yellowstone in 1988[13] and broke records across Colorado in 2020[14]. And the effects on the national parks could harm the region’s nearly US$800 billion[15] in annual tourism activity across the three states.

A group of scientists led by Cathy Whitlock[16] from Montana State University, Steve Hostetler[17] of the U.S. Geological Survey and myself[18] at the University of Wyoming partnered with local organizations, including the Greater Yellowstone Coalition, to launch the climate assessment[19].

We wanted to create a common baseline for discussion among the region’s many voices, from the Indigenous nations who have lived in these landscapes for over 10,000 years to the federal agencies mandated to care for the region’s public lands. What information would ranchers and outfitters, skiers and energy producers need to know to begin planning for the future?

A group of elk in a grassland area. Elk in the Greater Yellowstone Area could be affected by changes in the availability and quality of plants they eat along their migration routes. Changes to the elk population would in turn have an impact on grizzlies, wolves, and other parts of the food chain. Bryan Shuman/University of Wyoming

Shifting from snow to rain

Standing at the University of Wyoming-National Park Service Research Station and looking up at the snow on the Grand Teton, over 13,000 feet above sea level, I cannot help but think that the transition away from snow is the most striking outcome that the assessment anticipates – and the most dire.

Today the average winter snowline – the level where almost all winter precipitation falls as snow – is at an elevation of about 6,000 feet. By the end of the century, warming is forecast to raise it to at least 10,000 feet, the top of Jackson Hole’s famous ski areas[20].

The climate assessment uses projections of future climates based on a scenario[21] that assumes countries substantially reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. When we looked at scenarios in which global emissions continue at a high rate instead, the differences by the end of century compared with today became stark. Not even the highest peaks would regularly receive snow.

In interviews with people across the region, nearly everyone agreed that the challenge ahead is directly connected to water. As a member of one of the regional tribes noted, “Water is a big concern for everybody.”

Yellowstone is losing its snow as the climate warms, and that means widespread problems for water and wildlife – a new report details the changes As temperature has risen over the past seven decades, snowfall has declined, and peak streamflow shifted earlier in the year across the Greater Yellowstone Area. 2021 Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment, CC BY-ND[22][23]

Precipitation may increase slightly as the region warms, but less of it will fall as snow. More of it will also fall in spring and autumn, while summers will become drier than they have been, our assessment found.

The timing of the spring runoff, when winter snow melts and feeds into streams and rivers, has already shifted ahead by about eight days since 1950. The shift means a longer, drier late summer when drought can turn the landscape brown – or black as the wildfire season becomes longer and hotter.

The outcomes will affect wildlife migrations dependent on the “green wave”[24] of new leaves that rises up the mountain slopes each spring. Low streamflow and warm water in late summer will threaten the survival of coldwater fisheries, like the Yellowstone cutthroat trout, and Yellowstone’s unique species like the western glacier stonefly[25], which depends on the meltwater from mountain glaciers.

Yellowstone is losing its snow as the climate warms, and that means widespread problems for water and wildlife – a new report details the changes Temperatures are projected to rise in the Greater Yellowstone Area in the coming decades. The chart shows two potential scenarios, based on different projections of what global warming might look like in the future – RCP 8.5, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate; and RCP 4.5, if countries take substantial steps to slow climate change. The temperatures are compared with the 1900-2005 average. 2021 Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment[26]

Preparing for a warming future

These outcomes will vary somewhat from location to location, but no area will be untouched.

We hope the climate assessment will help communities anticipate the complex impacts ahead and start planning for the future.

[Get our best science, health and technology stories. Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter[27].]

Fortunately, as the report indicates, we have choices. Federal and state policy choices will determine whether the world will see optimistic scenarios or scenarios where adaption becomes more difficult. The Yellowstone region, one of the coldest parts of the U.S., will face changes, but actions now can help avoid the worst. High-elevation mountain towns like Jackson, Wyoming[28], which today rarely experience 90 F, may face a couple of weeks of such heat by the end of the century – or they may face two months of it, depending in large part on those decisions.

The assessment underscores the need for discussion. What choices do we want to make?

References

  1. ^ Yellowstone National Park (www.nps.gov)
  2. ^ Grand Teton (www.nps.gov)
  3. ^ assessment of climate change (gyclimate.org)
  4. ^ National Park Service (www.nps.gov)
  5. ^ risen 2.3 degrees (gyclimate.org)
  6. ^ projected to warm 5-6 F by 2061-2080 (gyclimate.org)
  7. ^ 22 million acres (www.nps.gov)
  8. ^ some of the longest intact wildlife migrations (www.perc.org)
  9. ^ Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images (www.gettyimages.com)
  10. ^ Yellowstone’s declining cutthroat trout (www.nps.gov)
  11. ^ food supplies (apnews.com)
  12. ^ risk of large forest fires (theconversation.com)
  13. ^ scarred Yellowstone in 1988 (www.yellowstonepark.com)
  14. ^ broke records across Colorado in 2020 (theconversation.com)
  15. ^ nearly US$800 billion (www.nps.gov)
  16. ^ Cathy Whitlock (www.researchgate.net)
  17. ^ Steve Hostetler (www.researchgate.net)
  18. ^ and myself (scholar.google.com)
  19. ^ launch the climate assessment (gyclimate.org)
  20. ^ Jackson Hole’s famous ski areas (www.skimag.com)
  21. ^ a scenario (sos.noaa.gov)
  22. ^ 2021 Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (gyclimate.org)
  23. ^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)
  24. ^ green wave” (doi.org)
  25. ^ western glacier stonefly (www.jhnewsandguide.com)
  26. ^ 2021 Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (gyclimate.org)
  27. ^ Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter (theconversation.com)
  28. ^ like Jackson, Wyoming (www.jacksonholechamber.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/yellowstone-is-losing-its-snow-as-the-climate-warms-and-that-means-widespread-problems-for-water-and-wildlife-a-new-report-details-the-changes-163223

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...

There’s a new vaccine for pneumococcal disease in Australia. Here’s what to know

The Australian government announced last week there’s a new vaccine[1] for pneumococcal disease on the National Immunisation Program for all children. This vaccine replaces pr...

What Makes a Small Group Tour of Italy So Memorable?

Traveling to Italy is on almost every bucket list. From the rolling hills of Tuscany to the sparkling canals of Venice, the country is filled with sights, flavors, and experiences ...