Mon Nov 24

Labor’s dominance continues in federal Newspoll, while Victorian Newspoll gives Coalition narrow lead

Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor’s two-party lead in the federal Newspoll increases to 58–42, as the Coalition and One Nation remain respectively at record lows and record highs. In Victoria, a Newspoll taken after Jess Wilson becomes Liberal leader gives the Coalition a 51–49 lead.

A national Newspoll ^[1], conducted November 17–20 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 58–42 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll ^[2], three weeks ago.

Primary votes were 36% Labor (steady), 24% Coalition (steady), 15% One Nation (steady), 13% Greens (up two) and 12% for all Others (down two). The Coalition’s primary vote remained at a record low set in the previous Newspoll and One Nation remained at a record high.

A recent Redbridge poll ^[3] gave One Nation 18%, so the 15% for One Nation in Newspoll isn’t a record high for them in all polls.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved five points to net zero, with 47% both satisfied and dissatisfied. Sussan Ley’s net approval improved four points to -29, rebounding slightly from a dive to -33. Albanese led Ley by an unchanged 54–27 as better PM.

The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a trend line. His ratings have improved since the May election. Labor won that election with its biggest lower house seat share ^[4] and national two-party vote share since 1943 despite Albanese’s negative net approval.

Labor’s dominance continues in federal Newspoll, while Victorian Newspoll gives Coalition narrow lead

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

Asked for preferred Coalition leader, Ley had 21%, Andrew Hastie 15%, Angus Taylor 9%, Tim Wilson 6% and Ted O'Brien 3%, with 46% unsure. Among Coalition voters, this was 28% Ley, 20% Hastie and 12% Taylor. Hastie led Ley by 26–12 among One Nation voters.

The Coalition’s November 13 decision to abandon the net zero ^[5] emissions by 2050 target has not brought immediate dividends against either Labor or One Nation.

Newspoll has been better for Labor than other recent polls. The Morgan poll below gave Labor a 55–45 lead by 2025 election preference flows, the Redbridge poll gave them a 56–44 lead and an early November Resolve poll ^[6] gave Labor a 53–47 lead by respondent preferences, although they would have been further ahead by 2025 election preferences.

Labor far ahead in Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll ^[7], conducted October 20 to November 16 from a sample of 5,248, gave Labor a 56.5–43.5 lead by respondent preferences, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the September to October Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 33% Labor (down two), 27% Coalition (steady), 14% One Nation (up two), 12.5% Greens (down 0.5) and 13.5% for all Others (up 0.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by 55–45, a two-point gain for the Coalition.

The large overall sample size of over 5,000 allows for meaningful samples for demographic breakdowns. Labor led in all states, with the closest margins 51–49 in Queensland and 53–47 in Western Australia. Labor led by 60–40 with women and 53–47 with men.

Labor led by 67–33 with those aged 18–34, by 60–40 with those aged 35–49 and by 54–46 with those aged 50–64. The one demographic that gave the Coalition a lead were those aged 65 and older (a 54–46 lead). One Nation had their highest support of 18.5% with those aged 50–64.

Spectre poll gives Labor a 53–47 lead

A national Spectre poll ^[8], conducted November 4–17 from a sample of 1,007, gave Labor a 53–47 lead by respondent preferences, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition since a late June Spectre poll ^[9].

Primary votes were 33% Labor (down three), 25% Coalition (down six), 17.5% One Nation (up 9.5), 12.5% Greens (down 0.5) and 12% for all Others (down 0.5). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 55–45.

Victorian Newspoll has Coalition just ahead

Jess Wilson replaced Brad Battin as Victorian Liberal leader last Tuesday ^[10]. A Newspoll ^[11], conducted Tuesday to Thursday (after the leadership change) from a sample of 1,030, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a four-point gain for the Coalition since a late June Victorian Newspoll.

Primary votes were 36% Coalition (up one), 28% Labor (down seven), 14% Greens (up two) and 22% for all Others (up four).

Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s net approval slumped 11 points to a dismal -42, with 68% dissatisfied and 26% satisfied. Her satisfied rating is one point above that for former Labor premier John Cain in 1990 before he was replaced by Joan Kirner.

Wilson’s initial ratings were 32% satisfied and 31% dissatisfied, compared with Battin’s 40–35 dissatisfied. Wilson led Allan by 47–33 as better premier, compared with a 41–36 lead for Battin.

The next Victorian election is in November 2026. With Allan’s dismal ratings, it’s surprising that voting intentions are close. But there’s another year until the election, so there’s plenty of time for Allan to drag Labor down.

Just 25% thought Labor deserved to be re-elected while 64% said it was time to give someone else a go (59–25 in June). By 58–42, respondents were not confident that the Liberals are ready to govern Victoria (60–40 previously). Asked the most important issue, 42% selected law and order, 23% housing, 16% state debt and 14% hospitals.

NSW Liberal leadership change

Kellie Sloane was elected unopposed ^[12] as the New South Wales Liberal leader on Friday, after former leader Mark Speakman resigned the previous day. It’s the second Liberal leadership change in a state in a week.

The next NSW election will be held in March 2027. The October to November NSW Resolve poll ^[13] gave Labor a large lead, and other NSW polls also have Labor far ahead.