Labor gains in Newspoll as Australians narrowly oppose the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Newspoll[1], conducted June 24–28 from a sample of 1,260 people, gave Labor a 51–49% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down three), 32% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up two), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all others (up two).
Newspoll uses 2022 preference flows to calculate its two-party estimate. Using the rounded primaries would normally give Labor a 52–48% lead, so rounding probably favoured the Coalition in this poll.
On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 53% were dissatisfied (up three) and 42% satisfied (down one), for a net approval of -11, down four points. This is Albanese’s lowest net approval since -13 in November 2023, after the Voice referendum. The graph below has Newspoll data on Albanese’s net approval (plus signs) for this term with a smoothed line fitted.
However, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped six points to -16, his lowest since October 2023. Albanese led Dutton by an unchanged 46–38% as better PM.
By 45–42%, voters disapproved of the Coalition’s “plans to build nuclear reactors in Australia on seven sites of current and former coal-fired power stations before 2050”.
Controversy over the nuclear plans has probably boosted Labor in two-party terms, despite the continued cost of living pressures hurting Albanese’s ratings.
Resolve poll on nuclear power
A national Resolve poll[2] for Nine newspapers, conducted after Dutton’s nuclear plan announcement (June 20–23) from a sample of 1,003 people, had voters supporting nuclear power by 41–37%. In a more open question, 32% (down four since February) said they supported nuclear power, 28% were opposed (up five) and 30% (up three) did not have a strong view, but were open to investigating it.
Renewables, in general, had a net likeability of +66, nuclear-powered electricity +8 and coal-powered electricity +2.
Asked to choose between “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” and “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”, voters backed Labor’s plan by 43–33%.
Essential poll: Labor’s first lead since April
A national Essential poll[3], conducted June 12–16 from a sample of 1,181 people, gave Labor a 48–46% lead including undecided after a 48–48% tie in early June.
This is Labor’s first lead in an Essential poll since April, with weak respondent-allocated preference flows for Labor partly responsible.
Primary votes in this poll were 32% Coalition (down four), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up three), 1% UAP (down two), 9% for all others (up one) and 6% undecided (up two).
On Australia’s emissions targets[4], 52% thought we should stick to our 2030 target, while 48% thought it we should abandon it as it’s unachievable and hurting the economy. By 36–31%, voters opposed Dutton’s decision to oppose Australia’s 2030 target.
The majority of Australians surveyed by Essential thought Peter Dutton should stick with current 2030 emissions targets.
Bianca De Marchi/AAP[5]
On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 38% (up six points since April) said Israel should permanently withdraw, 21% (up two) said they should agree to a temporary ceasefire and 15% (down four) said Israel’s military action is justified.
On the Australian government’s response to the Israel-Gaza war, 52% were satisfied, 32% said it was too supportive of Israel and 16% too harsh on Israel.
By 56–22%, voters supported regulation of vapes so they are only available at pharmacies with a prescription (compared to 58–20% in March). Negative attitudes to vapes have increased since March.
Morgan poll: 51–49% to Labor
A national Morgan poll[6], conducted June 10–16 from a sample of 1,724 people, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50%, a 3.5-point gain for the Coalition since the June 2–9 poll that was a pro-Labor outlier.
In the Morgan poll[7] conducted June 17–23 from a sample of 1,696, Labor took a 51–49% lead.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down one since June 10–16), 31.5% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (down 0.5), 6% One Nation (up one), 8.5% independents (steady) and 4% others (down 1.5).
Additional Resolve questions
I previously covered[8] the national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that gave Dutton his first preferred PM lead from any pollster.
In additional questions[9], 41% (down four since August 2023 and down ten since October 2021) said climate change is a serious problem and we should take action now even if that involves significant costs.
Climate change was thought to be gradual by 32% (up three points since August 2023 and five since October 2021), so we can deal with it by taking small steps over time, and 18% (up two and up six) said “until we are sure that climate change is a real problem, we should only consider action that has no significant costs”.
On the 43% emissions reduction by 2030 target, 52% either supported this or wanted a more ambitious target, while 30% wanted the target reduced or rejected outright.
Voters were asked what forms of protest[10] they thought were legitimate. The forms of protest with the most support were holding a rally in a park or outside a parliament (53%) and marching on the streets (41%). Other forms of protest that involved disruption to the public or an MP had less than 15% support.
Read more: Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished[11]
NSW Resolve poll: Labor remains ahead after preferences
A New South Wales state Resolve poll[12] for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the May and June federal Resolve polls from a sample of 1,000 people, gave the Coalition 35% of the primary vote (down one since April), Labor 32% (down one), the Greens 11% (down one), independents 15% (up one) and others 7% (up two).
No two-party estimate was given by Resolve, but The Poll Bludger[13] estimated a Labor lead by 52–48% based on preference flows at the 2023 state election, a little better for Labor than a recent NSW Redbridge poll that gave them just a 50.5–49.5 lead.
Labor incumbent Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman by 38–13% as preferred premier (compared to 37–16% in April).
Voters were also told the Labor government had recently announced plans to encourage higher density housing[14], like apartment blocks, to be built near 37 train stations, and that the Liberals opposed this policy. By 50–31%, voters supported this policy.
A NSW byelection occurred on June 22 in Northern Tablelands[15], with Labor not contesting. The Nationals won 68.0% of the primary vote (down 4.2% since the 2023 state election), the Shooters 11.4% (up 7.9%), the Greens 9.1% (up 4.5%) and two independents a combined 11.6%; Labor had won 10.2% in 2023[16].
The electoral commission selected Nationals and Greens as the final two candidates, when it’s Nationals vs Shooters. The Nationals will win very easily.
References
- ^ national Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
- ^ Resolve poll (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ national Essential poll (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ emissions targets (essentialreport.com.au)
- ^ Bianca De Marchi/AAP (www.photos.aap.com.au)
- ^ national Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ Morgan poll (www.roymorgan.com)
- ^ previously covered (theconversation.com)
- ^ additional questions (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ forms of protest (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished (theconversation.com)
- ^ state Resolve poll (www.smh.com.au)
- ^ The Poll Bludger (www.pollbludger.net)
- ^ encourage higher density housing (www.theage.com.au)
- ^ Northern Tablelands (pollbludger.net)
- ^ won 10.2% in 2023 (pollbludger.net)
