The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

What’s at stake in France’s election, and could it make Macron’s government even weaker?

  • Written by Romain Fathi, Senior Lecturer, School of History, Australian National University



Just one hour after the far-right’s surge in the European elections on June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron made the surprising decision to dissolve the French national assembly[1] and call for snap elections.

The latest polling[2] from last weekend shows the far-right National Rally party leading the race with 35.5% of the vote, followed by the New Popular Front[3] (a coalition of far-left, communist and centre-left parties) with 29.5%, and Macron’s centrist alliance (Ensemble) in third with 19.5%.

With Macron’s government now hanging on by a thread, what is expected to happen in the two-stage election starting Sunday and concluding on July 7?

First, what exactly is the national assembly?

France has a semi-presidential system of government in which the president and the parliament share power. The president is elected by popular vote and appoints the prime minister, as well as the cabinet ministers (on the recommendation of his or her prime minister).

The government must secure the support of the majority of MPs in the national assembly (the lower house of parliament) to stay in power. If the national assembly loses confidence in the government, it can dismiss the prime minister and cabinet ministers. The president, in turn, has the power to dismiss the national assembly.

Feeling the national assembly was growing less supportive of his government, Macron chose to fire first and dissolve the assembly.

Since the establishment of the current French constitution in 1958, the national assembly has been dissolved six times[4] by the president. But it had never previously happened on the basis of European-related matters, such as the European elections.

Read more: French snap elections: 'cohabitation' could reshuffle the cards between president and prime minister[5]

Why did Macron pull the trigger?

Officially, Macron called for snap elections because the National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, received[6] 31.5% of the vote in the European elections, more than double the support for Macron’s centrist party.

Because of this, Macron felt the national assembly no longer represented the mood of the French people, so he has called for a “clarification[7]” – a word he has repeated over and over since June 9.

The move to dissolve the assembly has been deemed risky by many in France because it gives the far right an opportunity to win a national election and, potentially, form a government. The last time the far right was in office was in Vichy France (the Nazi collaborationist government during the second world war).

Beyond Macron’s talking points, the reality is many were expecting a dissolution of the assembly because the government has grown weaker. What surprised people was not the dissolution itself, but the timing, conflating European and French politics, which are generally quite distinct issues.

Macron has been working with a minority government since 2022[8]. His government has had to find unlikely allies on the centre-right, the left and even the far right in the past two years just to pass legislation.

In the past six months, there has been so much discord in the national assembly, it has become harder and harder for Macron and his government to do anything. There were also rumours[9] the opposition might unite to dismiss his government in September, after the French summer holidays.

Given his temperament, Macron was never going to allow this chaos to continue for another three years when the next presidential election is due to be held, potentially eroding the public’s trust in their institutions.

Why is France so divided?

French politics has long been dominated by either a strong moderate right or a strong moderate left taking turns in power, with small parties in the centre and even smaller parties on the far left and far right.

This changed under Macron. When he was first elected in 2017, his centrist party[10] demolished the large moderate left and moderate right parties by persuading their MPs to defect to his party. This was the only way the centre could gain power, by forging alliances with the moderates on either side of the political spectrum.

Those moderates who chose to remain in their parties then became more likely to side with the extreme fringe of the far left and the far right. As a result, these factions both grew larger in the national assembly in the 2022 election, as Macron’s party lost seats.

One could argue that structurally, economically and demographically, France has not changed that drastically in the last decade. Since Macron’s first term, however, the political landscape has become unrecognisable, as polarisation[11] has set in.

At the same time, Le Pen took over from her father as leader of the new National Rally (formerly National Front) party and has successfully “de-demonised[12]” it, transforming it from a fringe far-right party into a large populist movement supported by a much larger portion of the electorate.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from National Rally.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen delivers a speech as Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, looks on. Lewis Joly/AP

So, what is likely to happen?

Macron’s attempt to secure a clear majority in the national assembly to re-establish a functioning government seems unlikely.

However, the National Rally party and the New Popular Front are not tipped to obtain an absolute majority[13], either.

As such, there are three possible outcomes:

1) National Rally earns the majority of seats and forms a government with Macron remaining as president. This is known as cohabitation[14], which means the president and prime minister are from two different political parties.

This is very unlikely to happen, however. The National Rally will gain MPs at this election, but probably not enough to form government. And National Rally leader Jordan Bardella has already indicated[15] his party wouldn’t govern without a clear majority.

2) Macron’s coalition and the New Popular Front will work together to form a government. This would be difficult ideologically, but both sides would likely prefer it to a far-right government.

3) Macron’s coalition does well enough and is able to form an alliance with MPs from the moderate right and the moderate left.

Feminist demonstration against far right.
A feminist demonstration in support of the New Popular Front and against the far right in Paris. Teresa Suarez/EPA

The latter two scenarios are most credible. But whatever the outcome, the next government will likely be even weaker than the current one – precisely the situation Macron had hoped to rectify. The spectre of political instability is worrisome to the French people, as well as the financial markets.

From Macron’s perspective, the election will either be his Austerlitz – one of Napoleon’s most famous victories, in part, because he was outnumbered – or his Waterloo, a terrible military defeat.

But for the president, going somewhere is better than being stuck, even if it ends up not being the direction he had hoped to take.

References

  1. ^ dissolve the French national assembly (www.youtube.com)
  2. ^ latest polling (www.reuters.com)
  3. ^ New Popular Front (www.theguardian.com)
  4. ^ six times (www.la-croix.com)
  5. ^ French snap elections: 'cohabitation' could reshuffle the cards between president and prime minister (theconversation.com)
  6. ^ received (www.la-croix.com)
  7. ^ clarification (www.youtube.com)
  8. ^ minority government since 2022 (ukandeu.ac.uk)
  9. ^ rumours (www.ladepeche.fr)
  10. ^ centrist party (en.wikipedia.org)
  11. ^ polarisation (www.institutmontaigne.org)
  12. ^ de-demonised (fr.wikipedia.org)
  13. ^ an absolute majority (fr.wikipedia.org)
  14. ^ cohabitation (www.lemonde.fr)
  15. ^ has already indicated (www.politico.eu)

Read more https://theconversation.com/explainer-whats-at-stake-in-frances-election-and-could-it-make-macrons-government-even-weaker-232705

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

What Endo Took and What It Gave Me

From pain to purpose: how one woman turned endometriosis into a movement After years of misdiagnosis, hormone chaos, and major surgery, Jo Barry was done being dismissed. What beg...

Why Parents Must Break the Silence on Money and Start Teaching Financial Skills at Home

Australia’s financial literacy rates are in decline, and our kids are paying the price. Certified Money Coach and Financial Educator Sandra McGuire, who has over 20 years’ exp...

Australia’s Grill’d Transforms Operations with Qlik

Boosting Burgers and Business Clean, connected data powers real-time insights, smarter staffing, and standout customer experiences Sydney, Australia, 14 July 2025 – Qlik®, a g...

Tricia Paoluccio designer to the stars

The Case for Nuturing Creativity in the Classroom, and in our Lives I am an actress and an artist who has had the privilege of sharing my work across many countries, touring my ...

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...