The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
Times Media

.

Why electric trucks are our best bet to cut road transport emissions

  • Written by Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney
Why electric trucks are our best bet to cut road transport emissions

Transport is likely the hardest economic sector[1] to decarbonise. And road vehicles produce the most greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian transport sector – 85% of its total[2]. Freight trucks account for only 8%[3] of travel on our roads but 27% of transport emissions[4].

We analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Australian passenger cars and SUVs in a 2022 study[5]. We have now looked at Australian trucks[6].

The 2022 study[7] showed Australian electric cars already provided large cuts in emissions in 2019. The reduction was 30-40% compared to the overall on-road passenger vehicle fleet’s (life-cycle) emissions per kilometre in 2018. When renewables take over the electricity grid from which battery electric vehicles are charged, the cuts will be even bigger – around 75-80%.

Is it the same for Australian trucks? Our new study[8] shows battery electric trucks are the best road transport option for getting closer to net-zero emissions. As the shift to renewables continues and batteries become more durable, these trucks are expected to deliver the largest and most certain emission cuts of 75-85% over their entire life cycle.

Hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) trucks also provide large emission cuts, but not as much as battery electric trucks. Their future performance is the most uncertain at this stage.

A blue Pepsi electric truck drives on the highway
We can expect to see increasing numbers of electric trucks on our roads. Dllu/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA[9][10]

Read more: Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero[11]

What did the study look at?

We looked at[12] the fleet-averaged life-cycle emissions of three Australian truck sizes and three technologies – diesel, hydrogen and electric – for the pre-COVID year 2019 and a future decarbonised scenario. This scenario is based on 90% renewables in the electricity grid and 90% green hydrogen[13] (produced using renewable energy).

To fairly assess emissions performance, we must look at the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process. Life-cycle assessment considers all aspects of a vehicle’s life – manufacturing, on-road driving, maintenance and disposal – and energy or fuel production and distribution. In future work we would like to include the life-cycle emission impacts of infrastructure such as roads.

Mitsubishi Fuso eCanter electric light duty truck driving down a city street
Years of service by battery electric trucks give us more data, increasing certainty about their life-cycle emissions. Syced/Wikimedia Commons[14]

We also added something that is less commonly done in life-cycle assessments: a probabilistic analysis. Instead of estimating single emission values, we quantified a plausible range of emissions. These distributions provide helpful extra information.

For instance, if a distribution is wide (spanning a wide range of emission values), there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in the emissions performance. This would make the technology less robust from a climate change perspective.

A narrow distribution means there is less variability. We can be more certain the technology will perform as expected, with less risk of over-promising and under-performing.

Assessments must also reflect Australian conditions. For instance, we analysed truck odometer data and found Australian long-haul trucks drive much farther over their lifetime than European trucks.

Vehicle mileage directly affects lifecycle emissions but it also affects the number of times a battery or hydrogen fuel cell system may need to be replaced. Each replacement can significantly increase life-cycle emissions.

Stacked bar chart showing global sales of the various forms of road transport in 2012 and 2022
While the uptake of electric trucks has trailed other forms of road transport, their high mileage means any emission cuts add up. International Energy Agency/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY[15][16]

Read more: Why electric vehicles won't be enough to rein in transport emissions any time soon[17]

What did the study find?

In 2019, life-cycle emissions for electric trucks (both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells) were higher than for diesel trucks. There were a few reasons for this.

First, the electricity grid and hydrogen production depended heavily on fossil fuel power sources at the time. High-carbon energy sources increased emissions from electric vehicles. But this is changing fast.

Another important issue is uncertainty about the durability of battery and (hydrogen) fuel cell systems in heavy use, such as for long-haul articulated trucks. The largest Australian trucks travel about 2 million kilometres on average in their lifetime. Those sorts of distances test the durability of these systems.

We currently expect battery systems to last between 400,000km and 600,000km. The average lifetime mileage of long-haul freight trucks in particular means batteries will need to be replaced.

Other options on the table could at least partly reduce this problem. We could use ageing trucks differently, such as for shorter trips. Trucks could also use shared and externally charged batteries (battery swapping[18]).

Battery and fuel cell systems are expected to become a lot more durable in coming decades. Alongside a strong decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity generation and hydrogen production, this completely changes the picture. This can be seen when we look at the estimated plausible range in life-cycle emissions for different truck sizes and powertrain technologies in the future decarbonised scenario.

Plausible range in life-cycle emissions from Australian trucks separated by size and technology in the decarbonised scenario.

Read more: The trucking industry has begun to turn electric; cars will take longer[19]

What does this mean for policy?

Our modelling[20] shows battery electric trucks will provide deep emission cuts of 75-85%, on average, across the fleet in the future decarbonised scenario. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks will provide large cuts of 50-70%, on average.

Hydrogen trucks are expected to emit about twice the amount of life-cycle emissions per kilometre compared to battery electric trucks. The latter’s extra reduction in emissions will be vital for getting road transport closer to the net-zero target in 2050.

The life-cycle emissions of the hydrogen trucks also have the largest uncertainty of all the powertrains we assessed. This reflects a general lack of data and information for this technology.

This uncertainty is important for policymakers to consider. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks carry a higher risk of not achieving anticipated emission cuts.

Using the available evidence, our study suggests policies to cut Australian trucking emissions should focus on promoting battery electric trucks wherever possible.

Of course, other policy measures will be needed to achieve net zero. The options include shifting freight from road to lower-emission electric rail[21] or ships[22]. We could also reduce overall freight travel by, for instance, optimising logistics.

Read more: Australia's freight used to go by train, not truck. Here's how we can bring back rail – and cut emissions[23]

References

  1. ^ hardest economic sector (theconversation.com)
  2. ^ 85% of its total (greenhouseaccounts.climatechange.gov.au)
  3. ^ only 8% (www.abs.gov.au)
  4. ^ 27% of transport emissions (greenhouseaccounts.climatechange.gov.au)
  5. ^ study (theconversation.com)
  6. ^ looked at Australian trucks (www.mdpi.com)
  7. ^ 2022 study (www.mdpi.com)
  8. ^ new study (www.mdpi.com)
  9. ^ Dllu/Wikimedia Commons (commons.wikimedia.org)
  10. ^ CC BY-SA (creativecommons.org)
  11. ^ Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero (theconversation.com)
  12. ^ We looked at (www.mdpi.com)
  13. ^ green hydrogen (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ Syced/Wikimedia Commons (commons.wikimedia.org)
  15. ^ International Energy Agency/Wikimedia Commons (www.iea.org)
  16. ^ CC BY (creativecommons.org)
  17. ^ Why electric vehicles won't be enough to rein in transport emissions any time soon (theconversation.com)
  18. ^ battery swapping (theconversation.com)
  19. ^ The trucking industry has begun to turn electric; cars will take longer (theconversation.com)
  20. ^ Our modelling (www.mdpi.com)
  21. ^ from road to lower-emission electric rail (theconversation.com)
  22. ^ ships (theconversation.com)
  23. ^ Australia's freight used to go by train, not truck. Here's how we can bring back rail – and cut emissions (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/why-electric-trucks-are-our-best-bet-to-cut-road-transport-emissions-219960

The Times Features

Back-to-School Worries? 70% of Parents Fear Their Kids Aren’t Ready for Day On

Australian parents find themselves confronting a key decision: should they hold back their child on the age border for another year before starting school? Recent research from...

Democratising Property Investment: How MezFi is Opening Doors for Everyday Retail Investors

The launch of MezFi today [Friday 15th November] marks a watershed moment in Australian investment history – not just because we're introducing something entirely new, but becaus...

Game of Influence: How Cricket is Losing Its Global Credibility

be losing its credibility on the global stage. As other sports continue to capture global audiences and inspire unity, cricket finds itself increasingly embroiled in political ...

Amazon Australia and DoorDash announce two-year DashPass offer only for Prime members

New and existing Prime members in Australia can enjoy a two-year membership to DashPass for free, and gain access to AU$0 delivery fees on eligible DoorDash orders New offer co...

6 things to do if your child’s weight is beyond the ideal range – and 1 thing to avoid

One of the more significant challenges we face as parents is making sure our kids are growing at a healthy rate. To manage this, we take them for regular check-ups with our GP...

Joykids Australia Presents the Joykids Family Rave: A Weekend Adventure Like No Other

Get ready to kick off the first day of summer and the festive season with an unforgettable family adventure! Joykids Australia is excited to announce the Joykids Family Rave—an...

Times Magazine

Innovative babysitter app sets new industry benchmark in South East Queensland

Sourcing and securing an experienced babysitter, with both a Working with Children Check and First-Aid Certification at a fixed and affordable rate, has now become a reality for the first time, thanks to the launch of Mumaco.   Mumaco, the brai...

Why Should I Choose Pipe Relining?

So, you've encountered every homeowner's worst nightmare. Your water is leaking, pipes are compromised, and you're facing the daunting prospect of having to repair your plumbing system. When it comes to fixing your pipes, you generally have two ...

The perfect place: how to properly use a jewellery box

There is nothing worse than going to wear one of our favourite pieces only to realise it has depreciated with time. It’s a sad disappointment to see special pieces suffer with time, and for this reason many people invest in high quality jewellery...

Prevent Electrical Hazards With Key Safety Measures for Power Strip Circuit Breaker

As the reliance on technology increases, so does the number of electronic devices use on a daily basis. With this increase in electronic usage, the need for power strips has become more prevalent. Power strips are used as a convenient way to increa...

The Rise of Custom Artwork: 5 Trends You Need to Know

In recent years, custom artwork has seen a significant surge in popularity. Homeowners and interior designers alike are seeking unique, personalised pieces that reflect individual tastes and stories. This rise in demand for custom artwork is transf...

Sunny days: 5 fantastic spring activities for seniors

The Australian winter can be a frightful thing: icy mornings, grey days and plenty of rain to go with them. Thankfully, this makes spring all the more enjoyable, as we can look forward to warm days ahead and plenty of fun in the sun! This is a...