The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Asia expert Richard McGregor on Anthony Albanese's coming visit to China

  • Written by Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra
Asia expert Richard McGregor on Anthony Albanese's coming visit to China

Anthony Albanese has now confirmed he’ll be heading to China before the end of the year. He is the first Australian prime minister to visit since 2016, and it is the culmination of an improvement in China-Australia relations since the change of government.

In this podcast, we’re joined by Richard McGregor, an expert on China and senior fellow at the Lowy Institute.

McGregor says the Albanese trip will be particularly important, given the hiatus between prime ministerial visits.

We haven’t had a prime minister in China for six, seven years. We all know why that’s the case, it’s not just COVID. It’s also because Australia’s relationship with China went downhill slowly, then quickly to the point where we didn’t have any political dialogue at all for about two to three years.

Our position in South East Asia, our position in the Pacific and our alliance with the United States all are affected by the China relationship.

While the government has trodden carefully in rebuilding the relationship, McGregor acknowledges there will be risks in the trip. “There are risks, undoubtedly, we’re going up to another level in what the Chinese call a ‘reset’ [and] we studiously call ‘stabilisation’.”

The Chinese see value in stabilising relations with Australia inasmuch as it sort of turns off a very bad signal that the bilateral fight was sending to the rest of the world. Australia and China had deep divisions [and] we made a lot of noise about it.

Many countries which normally wouldn’t really take much notice of Australian foreign policy, particularly in Europe and to some extent in a different way in South East Asia, in Japan and South Korea, have all watched Australia closely for lessons about how to manage the downside of the relationship. And I think that for China, it wasn’t working for them as well for all sorts of reasons.

So the election allowed the beginning of the stabilisation and I think the Chinese are taking advantage of that.

Australia and China have been embroiled in a bitter trade dispute since former Prime Minister Scott Morrison pressed for an investigation into the origin of COVID-19 in 2020. Up to $20 billion worth of Australian exports were targeted by the Chinese government. Recently Trade Minister Don Farrell estimated that has come down to $2.5 billion. On the remaining sanctions McGregor sees a mixed picture.

On the commodities or sectors which are still affected, wine I think is running on its own track – that’s the subject of a World Trade Organisation complaint by Australia. Until we get a draft report with a resolution to that or a decision – Australia seems to expect it will be in our favour – but until we get that we’ll see no movement from China I think.

In the other areas we might get some sort of flashy opening or partial reopening of the punitive trade measures on areas like lobster, around the time Mr. Albanese is to visit. I think that’s a time honoured Chinese technique, to sort of ‘sweeten the tea before it’s drunk’ But no big change I think.

The bulk of [Australian] trade with China, which is dominated by iron ore, LNG and the like, the bulk of that was not affected. That was the fascinating thing about our trade dispute because during that period both sides tried to diversify, and both sides really failed. We still have complementary economies, we sell them stuff that they still need, and China won’t self harm.

While Albanese has flagged there are no concessions in place for the visit, McGregor says if he doesn’t make any progress regarding imprisoned Chinese-Australians Cheng Lei and Yang Hengjun, it will be “embarrassing and damaging” for his reputation:

This is where the risks of the Albanese trip comes in - Australia has constantly said that we would go to China without any preconditions and I think that’s fair enough. But if six months or so after the trip […] there’s been no movement on the two high-profile detainees Cheng Lei and Yang Hengjun, then I think that would be very embarrassing and damaging for Mr Albanese.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Albanese have a lot of talking points to cover, and McGregor believes Chinese foreign investment in Australia and climate change will be of particular focus:

China is a big, complicated country, but it’s a clean energy superpower. 90% of solar panels in the world are manufactured in China. […] Yes, they are struggling to get their emissions down because their economy is still growing. Just one figure, the share of coal-fired power in the Chinese economy has gone down from about the mid 70’s to 50% in recent years.

Foreign investment is a point of conflict. […] I think Australia’s going to be very restrictive in the area of lithium and rare earths. And I think the Chinese will be raising that quite vociferously. I expect the Australian response at the top table will be vague, but we’ve already made it pretty clear that we’re not going to allow, potentially, a country which has been unfriendly and which we we have not a great deal of trust in investing in there and potentially dominating that industry in Australia.

Other than that, both leaders will be laying out, I think, their view of the world, their view of the region, their concerns about instability in the region and the possibility of conflict. There are all sorts of things that Mr. Albanese will have to raise.

Read more https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-asia-expert-richard-mcgregor-on-anthony-albaneses-coming-visit-to-china-213471

Times Magazine

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an online presence that reflects your brand, engages your audience, and drives results. For local businesses in the Blue Mountains, a well-designed website a...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beauty On Saturday, September 6th, history will be made as the International Polo Tour (IPT), a sports leader headquartered here in South Florida...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data analytics processes. The sheer volume and complexity of data can be overwhelming, often leading to bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Enter the innovative da...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right choice keeps your team productive, your data safe, and your budget predictable. The wrong choice shows up as slow tickets, surprise bills, and risky sh...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in the Sutherland Shire who may not have the financial means to pay for private legal assistance, legal aid ensures that everyone has access to representa...

Watercolor vs. Oil vs. Digital: Which Medium Fits Your Pet's Personality?

When it comes to immortalizing your pet’s unique personality in art, choosing the right medium is essential. Each artistic medium, whether watercolor, oil, or digital, has distinct qualities that can bring out the spirit of your furry friend in dif...

The Times Features

How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says

Over the next decade, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire[1]. The Tesla board recently proposed a US$1 trillion (A$1.5 trillion) compensation plan, if Musk ca...

NSW has a new fashion sector strategy – but a sustainable industry needs a federally legislated response

The New South Wales government recently announced the launch of the NSW Fashion Sector Strategy, 2025–28[1]. The strategy, developed in partnership with the Australian Fashion ...

From Garden to Gift: Why Roses Make the Perfect Present

Think back to the last time you gave or received flowers. Chances are, roses were part of the bunch, or maybe they were the whole bunch.   Roses tend to leave an impression. Even ...

Do I have insomnia? 5 reasons why you might not

Even a single night of sleep trouble can feel distressing and lonely. You toss and turn, stare at the ceiling, and wonder how you’ll cope tomorrow. No wonder many people star...

Wedding Photography Trends You Need to Know (Before You Regret Your Album)

Your wedding album should be a timeless keepsake, not something you cringe at years later. Trends may come and go, but choosing the right wedding photography approach ensures your ...

Can you say no to your doctor using an AI scribe?

Doctors’ offices were once private. But increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) scribes (also known as digital scribes) are listening in. These tools can record and trans...