The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
Men's Weekly

.

Unemployment is staying low at 3.5%. But for those out of work, here's why it's become harder to get a job

  • Written by Jeff Borland, Professor of Economics, The University of Melbourne
Unemployment is staying low at 3.5%. But for those out of work, here's why it's become harder to get a job

Slower employment growth, faster population growth and a steady rate of unemployment are the main stories from the Bureau of Statistics’ labour force[1] update, released on Thursday.

Employment climbed by 32,600 between May and June, while the population grew 49,900. The rate of unemployment (happily) remains fixed at 3.5 per cent, although to two decimal places, it fell from 3.55% to 3.47%.

This story isn’t new. The waning of the Delta wave of COVID-19 from late 2021 brought a strong recovery in the demand for workers. Even after the immediate bounce-back from lockdowns, employment grew impressively.

Read more: Australia is on the brink of ending interest rate hikes and an economic first – beating inflation without a recession[2]

In the nine months from November 2021, total employment increased by an average of 55,000 per month – double the 20,000 to 30,000 common before COVID.

Thereafter, employment growth has grown more slowly, by an average of 35,600 per month since August 2022.

Population growth has climbed as employment growth has slowed. During the nine months to August 2022, in which major restrictions on immigration remained, it averaged 37,200 per month.

After that time, with those restrictions removed, population growth averaged 50,300 per month.

Who is getting work has been changing

Mid-2022 didn’t just mark a change in the pace of employment growth. It also marked a shift in the sources of employment growth[3].

Up to August 2022, extra workers had been drawn from unemployment and from new entrants joining the labour force, as well as from population growth.

But since August 2022, employment growth has come almost entirely from population growth. The rates of unemployment and of labour force participation have remained largely constant.

Why unemployment didn’t jump

A combination of slowing job growth and faster population growth ought to have pushed up the unemployment rate. But so far that hasn’t happened.

Having hit a low of 3.5% in August 2022, unemployment has stayed there pretty much the whole time since.

The reason is our record level of job vacancies. Fewer new jobs are being created, but an unusually high number of vacancies is keeping demand for workers high.

New entrants to the labour force have been able to take up those vacancies, rather than becoming unemployed.

Where population growth coming from

The higher rate of population growth is coming from increased immigration, a term that encompasses international students and working holidaymakers.

Net overseas migration (the extent to which arrivals exceed departures) averaged 23,270 per month in the first half of 2022, and then 35,200 in the second half.

A big part of the growth is from the return of international students and working holidaymakers.

Unsurprisingly, the biggest reductions in job vacancies came in the occupations where these temporary visa holders make up the largest shares of the workforce.

Since mid-2022, the vacancy rate for food trades workers has fallen from 4.4% to 3.0%, the largest fall by far of any occupation group.

Vacancy rates for hospitality and food preparation workers have each fallen by about three quarters of a percentage point.

Where to from here

Continued (now modest) growth in new job creation, together with the huge backlog of vacancies, might well allow the rate of unemployment to remain around its current level – even with a high rate of population growth.

Whether that does indeed happen depends on how future growth in new jobs is affected by actions of the Reserve Bank aimed at dampening economic growth.

So far, these actions have slowed the jobs market, but haven’t sent it into a tailspin.

Whether that remains the case will be the story to watch in the coming months.

Read more https://theconversation.com/unemployment-is-staying-low-at-3-5-but-for-those-out-of-work-heres-why-its-become-harder-to-get-a-job-209835

Times Magazine

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Science Behind Reverse Osmosis and Why It Matters

What is reverse osmosis? Reverse osmosis (RO) is a water purification process that removes contaminants by forcing water through a semi-permeable membrane. This membrane allows only water molecules to pass through while blocking impurities such as...

Foodbank Queensland celebrates local hero for National Volunteer Week

Stephen Carey is a bit bananas.   He splits his time between his insurance broker business, caring for his young family, and volunteering for Foodbank Queensland one day a week. He’s even run the Bridge to Brisbane in a banana suit to raise mon...

Senior of the Year Nominations Open

The Allan Labor Government is encouraging all Victorians to recognise the valuable contributions of older members of our community by nominating them for the 2025 Victorian Senior of the Year Awards.  Minister for Ageing Ingrid Stitt today annou...

CNC Machining Meets Stage Design - Black Swan State Theatre Company & Tommotek

When artistry meets precision engineering, incredible things happen. That’s exactly what unfolded when Tommotek worked alongside the Black Swan State Theatre Company on several of their innovative stage productions. With tight deadlines and intrica...

The Times Features

Running Across Australia: What Really Holds the Body Together?

How William Goodge’s 3,800km run reveals the connection between movement, mindset, and mental resilience As a business owner, I’ve come to realise that the biggest wins rarely com...

Telehealth is Transforming Healthcare Services in Australia

It has traditionally not been easy to access timely healthcare in Australia, particularly for people who live in remote areas. Many of them spend hours on the road just to see a...

Launchd Acquires Huume, Strengthening Creative Firepower Across Talent-Led Marketing

Launchd, a leader in talent, technology and brand partnerships, has announced its acquisition of influencer talent management agency Huume from IZEA. The move comes as the medi...

Vietnam's "Gold Coast" Emerges as Extraordinary Investment Frontier and Australian Inspired Way of Life

$2 Billion super-city in Vung Tau set to replicate Australia's Gold Coast success story A culturally metamorphic development aptly named "Gold Coast" is set to reshape Vietna...

Choosing the Wrong Agent Is the #1 Regret Among Aussie Property Sellers

Selling your home is often one of the largest financial transactions you’ll make, and for many Australians, it’s also one of the most emotional. A new survey of Australian home se...

Travel Insurance for Families: What Does it Cover and Why it’s Essential

Planning a family trip is exciting, but unexpected mishaps can turn your dream vacation into a stressful ordeal. That’s where travel insurance comes in—it’s your safety net when ...