The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Kim Jong Un wants North Korea to be a nuclear superpower – the real risk is a regional arms race

  • Written by Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

The recent claim by Kim Jong Un[1] that North Korea plans to develop the world’s most powerful nuclear force may well have been more bravado than credible threat. But that doesn’t mean it can be ignored.

The best guess[2] is that North Korea now has sufficient fissile material to build 45 to 55 nuclear weapons, three decades after beginning its program. The warheads would mostly have yields of around 10 to 20 kilotons, similar to the 15 kiloton bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.

But North Korea has the capacity to make devices ten times bigger. Its missile delivery systems are also advancing in leaps and bounds[3]. The technological advance is matched in rhetoric and increasingly reckless acts, including test-firing missiles[4] over Japan in violation of all international norms, provoking terror and risking accidental war.

The question now is how best to bring the pariah nation into the orbit of arms control negotiations and international dialogue. However remote the chances of that, the alternative risks a regional nuclear arms race.

A history of failure

The current impasse can be traced back to 1991 and the end of the Cold War. As part of its efforts to create a viable arms control treaty with the Soviet Union, the United States removed all nuclear weapons from South Korea.

This seemed sensible at the time, especially since North Korea had pledged itself to the cornerstone Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT[5]) in 1985. This commits member states to arms control and reduction, with independent observers to monitor compliance.

Read more: It's time to take Kim Jong Un and his nuclear threats seriously[6]

The faith was misplaced. From 1993, North Korea went on to trick or fool every US president and most of the international community for the next 30 years, quitting the NPT in 2003 and detonating its first nuclear explosion in 2006.

This so upset the global balance of power that all members of the UN Security Council agreed that North Korea had to stop developing nuclear warheads and associated missile delivery systems. Nine rounds of sanctions[7] since 2006 have attempted to enforce this, to no avail.

Former US president Donald Trump was the last to try[8], inviting Kim Jong Un to open the North Korean economy and even pledging to end the joint military exercises in the south that aggravated him so much. Kim promised to “denuclearise” and then did nothing.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile in March 2022. AAP

Influence of Russia and China

By the end of this decade, North Korea could have 200 devices, en route to Kim Jong Un’s vision of becoming a nuclear superpower. This would still be a lot fewer than those stockpiled by the US and Russia, which possess 90% of all nuclear weapons. But it would put North Korea on or above current estimates for Israel (90), India (160[9]) or Pakistan (165[10]), and into the middle league with Britain (225[11]), France (“under 300[12]”) and China (350)[13].

The ideal solution would be for North Korea to sign the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons[14] – but we need to realistic. None of the other existing nuclear powers are signatories, and we now live in an age of nuclear upgrades and expansion.

The war in Ukraine has changed everything, its main lesson seemingly being that weapons of mass destruction are still strategically useful. Indeed, the Ukrainians are paying a price for having given up their nuclear stockpile in 1994 after Russia promised[15] not to threaten or use force against Ukraine’s territorial integrity or political independence.

Even if additional sanctions might work, both Russia and China have only recently vetoed[16] an attempt to impose tighter sanctions on North Korea over its missile launches. To underline their position, they also recently conducted military exercises[17] inside the South Korean air defence zone.

Read more: North Korea's nuclear program is funded by stolen cryptocurrency. Could it collapse now that FTX has?[18]

A regional arms race

All this raises a critical question: should the existing, ineffective sanctions be dropped in an effort to calm relations with North Korea and find a way forward? After all, there are precedents for eventual acceptance that countries have joined the nuclear club.

The US relented and dropped sanctions[19] against India and Pakistan in 1999, despite both having never accepted the NPT. Nor has Israel, which has never even faced sanctions.

But for such a strategy to work, North Korea, India, Pakistan and Israel would need to become signatories to the NPT and its associated protocols. History suggests this isn’t a plausible option.

Three decades of non-compliance with international obligations by North Korea have not engendered trust or a willingness by surrounding countries to submit to a nuclear neighbour. More likely is a regional nuclear arms race, as happened when India got the bomb and Pakistan had to keep up, or when Israel triggered Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

South Korea[20], Japan[21] and possibly even Taiwan[22] are likely to follow suit, either asking to host US ballistic missiles or pursuing independent nuclear strategies – especially if they feel the US won’t defend them after the next presidential election.

None of this makes the world safer.

References

  1. ^ recent claim by Kim Jong Un (www.theguardian.com)
  2. ^ best guess (thebulletin.org)
  3. ^ advancing in leaps and bounds (www.bbc.com)
  4. ^ test-firing missiles (www.bbc.com)
  5. ^ NPT (www.un.org)
  6. ^ It's time to take Kim Jong Un and his nuclear threats seriously (theconversation.com)
  7. ^ Nine rounds of sanctions (www.armscontrol.org)
  8. ^ last to try (www.csis.org)
  9. ^ 160 (thebulletin.org)
  10. ^ 165 (thebulletin.org)
  11. ^ 225 (www.tandfonline.com)
  12. ^ under 300 (www.recna.nagasaki-u.ac.jp)
  13. ^ 350) (thebulletin.org)
  14. ^ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (www.g7.utoronto.ca)
  15. ^ Russia promised (theconversation.com)
  16. ^ recently vetoed (press.un.org)
  17. ^ conducted military exercises (www.theguardian.com)
  18. ^ North Korea's nuclear program is funded by stolen cryptocurrency. Could it collapse now that FTX has? (theconversation.com)
  19. ^ dropped sanctions (www.armscontrol.org)
  20. ^ South Korea (www.aljazeera.com)
  21. ^ Japan (www.theguardian.com)
  22. ^ Taiwan (moderndiplomacy.eu)

Read more https://theconversation.com/kim-jong-un-wants-north-korea-to-be-a-nuclear-superpower-the-real-risk-is-a-regional-arms-race-195726

The Times Features

Discover the Charm of a Girl's White Dress

Key Highlights Timeless elegance: White dresses feel pure and have classic charm. They are perfect for many types of events. Versatile styles: You can pick from lace, embroid...

Top Medical Grade Red Light Therapy Devices in Australia

Key Highlights Lumitter™ has advanced red light therapy devices that combine new ideas with wellness. Red light therapy helps lower pain and swelling and boosts skin health. ...

Why Regional Small Businesses in Bendigo Deserve Better Access to Finance in 2025

In the heart of regional Victoria, Bendigo has long stood as a beacon of innovation, resilience and community spirit. As we step further into 2025, the importance of nurturing sm...

Is It Time for a Deep Cleaning? Signs You Shouldn’t Ignore

Most people know they should visit the dentist for a regular check-up and cleaning every six months. But sometimes, a standard cleaning isn’t enough. When plaque and tartar build...

The Hidden Meaning Behind Popular Engagement Ring Cuts

When it comes to engagement rings, the cut of the diamond is not just about aesthetics. Each shape carries its own symbolism and significance, making it an important decision for...

Annual Health Exams in the Office: How They Can Reduce Sick Days and Healthcare Costs

Regular health check-ups, especially annual health exams in the office, can significantly impact the overall well-being of your workforce. A proactive approach to employee health...

Times Magazine

The Essential Guide to Transforming Office Spaces for Maximum Efficiency

Why Office Fitouts MatterA well-designed office can make all the difference in productivity, employee satisfaction, and client impressions. Businesses of all sizes are investing in updated office spaces to create environments that foster collaborat...

The A/B Testing Revolution: How AI Optimized Landing Pages Without Human Input

A/B testing was always integral to the web-based marketing world. Was there a button that converted better? Marketing could pit one against the other and see which option worked better. This was always through human observation, and over time, as d...

Using Countdown Timers in Email: Do They Really Increase Conversions?

In a world that's always on, where marketers are attempting to entice a subscriber and get them to convert on the same screen with one email, the power of urgency is sometimes the essential element needed. One of the most popular ways to create urg...

Types of Software Consultants

In today's technology-driven world, businesses often seek the expertise of software consultants to navigate complex software needs. There are several types of software consultants, including solution architects, project managers, and user experienc...

CWU Assistive Tech Hub is Changing Lives: Win a Free Rollator Walker This Easter!

🌟 Mobility. Independence. Community. All in One. This Easter, the CWU Assistive Tech Hub is pleased to support the Banyule community by giving away a rollator walker. The giveaway will take place during the Macleod Village Easter Egg Hunt & Ma...

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

LayBy Shopping