Australians favour more defence spending in Lowy poll, as Labor extends ADF chief Angus Campbell's term

Australians are becoming more fearful in an insecure world, and want to see the country armed up, favouring more defence spending and the planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

Three quarters of Australians say it is likely China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, according to the 2022 Lowy Institute’s Poll^[1]. This is an increase of 29 points since 2018.

Moreover, for the first time a majority (51%) would favour Australian military forces being used if China invaded Taiwan and the United States intervened. This was an eight-point rise since 2019 when the question was last asked.

Just over half (51%) say Australia should boost defence spending – a 20-point rise since 2019. Seven in ten favour the plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. More than six in ten support the American military being based in Australia.

Defence Minister Richard Marles, who is acting prime minister, on Tuesday announced the government is extending the terms of the Chief of the Defence Force, Angus Campbell, and the ADF’s vice chief, Vice Admiral David Johnston, by two years. The government has also asked the CDF to extend the term of the Chief of Joint Operations, Lieutenant General Greg Bilton. Marles said the extensions were because it was “a time which is as strategically complex as any since the end of the Second World War in terms of our national security and the needs of our defence procurement”. In his preface to the poll, Lowy executive director Michael Fullilove writes: “Australians are increasingly concerned about the potential for great power competition to spill over into confrontation. "In 2022, Australians report feeling unsafe, and as the potential for conflict in our region feels more possible, support for Australia’s alliance with the United States has returned to a record high.” Nearly seven in ten (68%) believe Russia’s foreign policy poses a critical threat to Australia’s vital interest in the next decade – a 36-point increase since 2017. Russian foreign policy tops the list of threats to Australia’s vital interests, narrowly ahead of China’s foreign policy (65% – up 29 points since 2017). In general, anxiety about Russia, China and a war over Taiwan have overtaken Australians’ concerns about COVID-19 and climate change.