The Times Australia
The Times World News

.
The Times Real Estate

.

Russia’s Ukraine invasion won’t be over soon – and Putin is counting on the West’s short attention span

  • Written by Matthew Sussex, Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

As Russia’s war in Ukraine becomes a quagmire of attrition[1], Western leaders are slowly coming to two realisations about Vladimir Putin’s intentions.

First, Russia’s war against Ukraine won’t be over soon, and is likely to grind on for the foreseeable future.

Second, it’s pointless to try to imagine a future in which relations with Moscow are characterised by anything other by mutual mistrust and hostility.

In spite of this, there is still the chance that Russia’s invasion falls off the international radar through a Western inability to deal with hard realities.

Putin’s war of expansion

In an interview with a German newspaper, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg estimated[2] the war could take years, rather than months.

Patrick Sanders, the incoming chief of the British Army, has claimed the UK’s armed forces need to be oriented around fighting a ground war[3] with Russia.

And after an awkwardly frosty hug[4] with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even French President Emmanuel Macron, whose calls to Putin have annoyed Kyiv and who previously warned Putin must not be humiliated, has voiced his unequivocal support for Ukraine.

These epiphanies are long overdue. There’s no point in dreaming up elaborate diplomatic “off ramps[5]” for Putin when it’s abundantly clear he sees no need for them.

Doing so also denies Ukraine agency in determining how the war ends, and presupposes a post-conflict European security order can meet both Russian and Western requirements. As witnessed prior to Russia’s invasion[6] on February 24, the Kremlin isn’t content with anything short of regaining something close to the geo-strategic footprint of the USSR.

Obsessed with territorial aggrandisement, and having cynically cultivated a fetish for militarism[7] in Russian society, Vladimir Putin recently admitted as much when he compared himself to Peter the Great[8], noting “now it’s our turn to get our lands back”.

At the very least, Putin’s words should put to bed the vastly overstated[9] claim that the enlargement of Western security structures somehow forced Putin to invade Ukraine. This is clearly a war of Russian expansion, not NATO expansion.

Yet some Western security policymakers and commentators remain incapable of letting go of victor’s guilt[10] over how the fledgling Russian state was treated following the USSR’s collapse.

While such sentiments are to an extent defensible, the West’s strategic failings nonetheless pale in comparison to Putin’s long history[11] of internal repression, political warfare against external foes, nuclear threats, and brutality against those whose continued independence irk him.

Russian President Vladimir Putin
Putin’s invasion is a war of Russian expansion. Mikhail Metzel/AAP

Putin waiting the West out

Another reason the West should avoid the temptation of hand-wringing is because now is the most dangerous time in Ukraine’s efforts to repel the Russian invasion.

By its own estimation, Ukraine’s forces are outgunned ten-to-one[12] by Russian artillery in the Donbas region. However, Ukraine has no option but to keep fighting, both for national survival and because suing for peace now – given what we know about the barbarism inflicted on Ukrainians by Russian invaders – would mean a swift end for Zelenskyy’s government.

Having initially failed to capture Kyiv in a poorly conceived and executed dash for the capital, Russian forces have adopted their typical approach to offensive operations[13] – massive unguided fires in both urban and rural environments. That curtain of bombardment allows its military to advance, albeit painfully slowly.

This suits Putin just fine, at least for the moment. He has no incentive to go to the negotiating table since the limited territory he has seized from Ukraine so far cannot be spun as a great victory either at home or abroad.

His military calculus is simple: to continue capturing territory and destroy as much of Ukraine’s infrastructure as possible.

It also dovetails with his strategic calculus, which is to simply wait the West out[14]. Previously – in Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea – he has correctly anticipated that Western tolerance for protracted confrontation is low, and it can be counted on to de-escalate.

Will the invasion fall off the radar?

Yet although Western elites are gloomily coming to the understanding Putin cannot somehow be managed[15], there remains a significant danger the conflict falls off the international radar, or that Western leaders waver as the conflict drags on.

We can already see some of this happening: in the tendency of the Western media to grasp at straws over Putin’s reputed ill-health[16], and in Germany’s egregious vacillation[17] over allowing heavy weapons destined for Ukraine to transit its territory.

For his part, Zelenskyy is acutely aware of this. It’s why he has maintained the pressure on European nations to match words with deeds.

It’s also why he now expects something in return for the popularity sugar hit European leaders get from photo opportunities after taking the increasingly well-worn path[18] to Kyiv to meet him.

3 reasons to meet Ukraine’s military requests

Meeting Ukraine’s requests for heavy weapons and ammunition is in the interests of NATO members for three reasons.

  1. It’s critical to show Putin that escalation[19] comes with real costs: something Western leaders have shied away from for decades.

  2. It’s increasingly likely neither Ukraine nor Russia will be happy with any eventual settlement to the war, and a “frozen” conflict[20] leaves Russia the chance to try again in future. Ukraine’s armed forces have performed far above expectations in denying the Kremlin the chance to “win”, at least in terms of its original ambitions. But although Kyiv’s desire to recapture all its lost territory – including Crimea – is unsurprising, there’s no realistic prospect of that without military assistance far beyond its requests.

  3. A third reason for the West to meet Ukrainian hardware needs concerns the credibility of NATO’s and the EU’s assertions they protect international order and shared values. No matter how the war ends, a profoundly damaged[21] Ukraine will take decades to rebuild.

And while it’s currently fashionable for Western leaders to proclaim how much they are doing to help, the reality is they’re safely watching Ukraine fight a major power.

With that track record, it would be completely understandable for those in other nations that might need Western security assistance in future to have little confidence in obtaining much more beyond noble sentiments, and bare minimum support.

References

  1. ^ quagmire of attrition (www.economist.com)
  2. ^ estimated (www.politico.eu)
  3. ^ fighting a ground war (www.bbc.com)
  4. ^ awkwardly frosty hug (www.france24.com)
  5. ^ off ramps (www.russiamatters.org)
  6. ^ prior to Russia’s invasion (www.theatlantic.com)
  7. ^ militarism (www.worldpoliticsreview.com)
  8. ^ compared himself to Peter the Great (www.newsweek.com)
  9. ^ vastly overstated (blogs.lse.ac.uk)
  10. ^ victor’s guilt (www.newyorker.com)
  11. ^ long history (www.foreignaffairs.com)
  12. ^ outgunned ten-to-one (www.theguardian.com)
  13. ^ offensive operations (www.smh.com.au)
  14. ^ wait the West out (www.washingtonpost.com)
  15. ^ cannot somehow be managed (foreignpolicy.com)
  16. ^ reputed ill-health (www.economist.com)
  17. ^ vacillation (www.atlanticcouncil.org)
  18. ^ well-worn path (time.com)
  19. ^ escalation (thestrategybridge.org)
  20. ^ conflict (warsawinstitute.org)
  21. ^ profoundly damaged (www.theguardian.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/russias-ukraine-invasion-wont-be-over-soon-and-putin-is-counting-on-the-wests-short-attention-span-185489

The Times Features

Why Regional Small Businesses in Bendigo Deserve Better Access to Finance in 2025

In the heart of regional Victoria, Bendigo has long stood as a beacon of innovation, resilience and community spirit. As we step further into 2025, the importance of nurturing sm...

Is It Time for a Deep Cleaning? Signs You Shouldn’t Ignore

Most people know they should visit the dentist for a regular check-up and cleaning every six months. But sometimes, a standard cleaning isn’t enough. When plaque and tartar build...

The Hidden Meaning Behind Popular Engagement Ring Cuts

When it comes to engagement rings, the cut of the diamond is not just about aesthetics. Each shape carries its own symbolism and significance, making it an important decision for...

Annual Health Exams in the Office: How They Can Reduce Sick Days and Healthcare Costs

Regular health check-ups, especially annual health exams in the office, can significantly impact the overall well-being of your workforce. A proactive approach to employee health...

Best Deals on Home Furniture Online

Key Highlights Discover the best deals on high-quality outdoor furniture online. Transform your outdoor space into a stylish and comfortable oasis. Explore a wide range of d...

Discover the Best Women's Jumpers for Every Season

Key Highlights Explore lightweight jumpers for spring and summer, ensuring breathability and ease. Wrap up warm with cozy wool jumpers for the chilly autumn and winter season...

Times Magazine

The Essential Guide to Transforming Office Spaces for Maximum Efficiency

Why Office Fitouts MatterA well-designed office can make all the difference in productivity, employee satisfaction, and client impressions. Businesses of all sizes are investing in updated office spaces to create environments that foster collaborat...

The A/B Testing Revolution: How AI Optimized Landing Pages Without Human Input

A/B testing was always integral to the web-based marketing world. Was there a button that converted better? Marketing could pit one against the other and see which option worked better. This was always through human observation, and over time, as d...

Using Countdown Timers in Email: Do They Really Increase Conversions?

In a world that's always on, where marketers are attempting to entice a subscriber and get them to convert on the same screen with one email, the power of urgency is sometimes the essential element needed. One of the most popular ways to create urg...

Types of Software Consultants

In today's technology-driven world, businesses often seek the expertise of software consultants to navigate complex software needs. There are several types of software consultants, including solution architects, project managers, and user experienc...

CWU Assistive Tech Hub is Changing Lives: Win a Free Rollator Walker This Easter!

🌟 Mobility. Independence. Community. All in One. This Easter, the CWU Assistive Tech Hub is pleased to support the Banyule community by giving away a rollator walker. The giveaway will take place during the Macleod Village Easter Egg Hunt & Ma...

"Eternal Nurture" by Cara Barilla: A Timeless Collection of Wisdom and Healing

Renowned Sydney-born author and educator Cara Barilla has released her latest book, Eternal Nurture, a profound collection of inspirational quotes designed to support mindfulness, emotional healing, and personal growth. With a deep commitment to ...

LayBy Shopping