The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

After many false dawns, Australians finally voted for stronger climate action. Here's why this election was different

  • Written by Matt McDonald, Associate Professor of International Relations, The University of Queensland
After many false dawns, Australians finally voted for stronger climate action. Here's why this election was different

Before the 2019 federal election, many people expected Australia would vote for faster climate action. That, of course, didn’t happen[1]. But just three years later, the climate election arrived at last. The question is – what changed?

In short: Reality hit. Over the Morrison government’s term, the east coast was ravaged by the Black Summer of megafires. Then came the devastating floods. These disasters proved to us what scientists have long predicted: climate change isn’t a future threat, it’s here, now.

Since 2019, Australia has been under growing international pressure to do more on climate, given we have (correctly) been seen as a laggard. With Biden replacing Trump, our isolation became clear at the Glasgow summit. Polls showed the result: more and more Australians named climate change as an important issue.

Morrison shrugged off these concerns with a non-binding “goal” of net zero by 2050. As Saturday’s election showed, Australians saw through these half-hearted measures and voted accordingly.

Three years of public concern and international pressure

Unexpected wins by the Greens in flood-affected seats along the Brisbane river gave a snapshot of voter sentiment. But earlier images of disaster – pensioners on rooftops in Lismore, overwhelmed firefighters and dying koalas – were hard to shake for many across the country.

Floods in Brisbane
The Greens made inroads in seats along the Brisbane River, which flooded this year. Russell Freeman/AAP

In many ways, this election was a perfect storm for the Coalition. Since 2019, the impatience of the international community with Australian delay tactics was clear. Our Pacific neighbours had been consistently critical of Australia’s fossil fuel protectionism, regardless of promises of new funding for the region and the so-called Pacific step-up[2]. Scott Morrison’s speech to a nearly empty room at the climate summit at Glasgow made our isolation[3] clear.

Read more: If 80% of Australians care about climate action, why don't they vote like it?[4]

Joe Biden’s victory in the US meant Australians increasingly saw[5] our government as holdouts at the back of the international pack[6].

These changes came through in growing public concern. Polling in 2021 showed a substantial majority[7] of Australians supported stronger emissions reduction commitments and a commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. Similarly, a YouGov poll in late 2021 found a majority of voters in every Australian seat[8] wanted stronger action on climate change from the government. More than a quarter of voters rated climate change as the most important issue[9] in determining their vote.

A day late, a dollar short

Despite the pressure and clear signals from voters, the Coalition went to the 2022 election with the emissions reduction targets announced by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2015. In addition, they had a non-binding ‘goal’[10] to reach net zero emissions by 2050, announced only after serious pressure and internal haggling.

The public was sceptical of this promise, due to efforts by segments of the Coalition to immediately walk this back. Outspoken Nationals senator Matt Canavan suggested on election eve[11] the government would consider walking away from its own net zero commitment.

Read more: The election shows the conservative culture war on climate change could be nearing its end[12]

With Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce leading the internal opposition[13] to net zero, there were concerns the Nationals could hold Australia to ransom[14] on climate even after the election.

We can’t say it was all climate – but it was a key factor

For the Coalition, navigating climate change during the election campaign proved far more challenging than in 2019.

Crucially, they found themselves fighting on multiple fronts. In blue ribbon seats in Sydney and Melbourne the Coalition was confronted and in many cases, beaten, by well-resourced ‘teal’ candidates. These independents appealed to a traditionally conservative electorate concerned about climate change but less likely to switch to a left-leaning party. Liberal candidates in these electorates promised more action on climate, but not much[15] beyond that.

Teal independent corflute Climate hawk teal independents appealed to traditionally Liberal constituencies. Mark Baker/AP

The Greens seemed an easier target for the government. Even so, the concentrated support for the third party in inner-city areas meant attacks by the government didn’t hurt.

Labor’s targets were more ambitious than the Coalition’s, which put them ahead for middle of the road voters concerned about climate change. But stung by their 2019 defeat, Labor actually went to the election with less ambitious emissions reductions targets than they had at the previous election: a 43% reduction by 2030. This made them a smaller target than in 2019 and able to avoid a Coalition scare campaign[16] on costs to jobs and the economy. This might have cost them in inner-city seats like Brisbane’s Griffith with strong Greens campaigns. But it allowed them to hold seats with strong mining constituencies, like Hunter in NSW.

For the Coalition, the changing facts on the ground made it much harder to even run a scare campaign on the costs of climate action. The anticipated declining market[17] for fossil fuels, significant and well-publicised[18] government subsidies for the fossil fuel sector, the plummeting cost of renewables[19] and the ballooning costs of climate change impacts[20] all undermined the power of the narrative that Australia had to choose between economy and jobs or climate action.

Young voters registered to vote in record numbers[21], while we saw formidable ground campaigns from the Greens[22] and teal independents.

Tasmanian windfarm Renewable costs have plunged. AAP

Does this spell the end of toxic climate politics?

If 2022 was the long-anticipated climate election, is it also the end of the toxic politics of climate change in Australia?

That depends on how the Coalition deals with the sting of this defeat. Will they seize the chance for a reset on climate? Or will we see a further shift to the right? Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has already signalled the possibility of abandoning net zero[23]. With moderate Liberal MPs now thin on the ground, there’s no guarantee of bipartisanship.

If the Coalition doubles down on climate delaying tactics, it would ensure its electoral irrelevance and make genuine climate action easier to achieve in Australia, one of the world’s last holdouts.

The Conversation’s #Settheagenda poll[24] of more than 10,000 readers found more than 60% rated climate change as the top concern for them this election

References

  1. ^ didn’t happen (www.abc.net.au)
  2. ^ Pacific step-up (www.theguardian.com)
  3. ^ our isolation (theconversation.com)
  4. ^ If 80% of Australians care about climate action, why don't they vote like it? (theconversation.com)
  5. ^ increasingly saw (theconversation.com)
  6. ^ international pack (www.theguardian.com)
  7. ^ substantial majority (www.lowyinstitute.org)
  8. ^ every Australian seat (www.acf.org.au)
  9. ^ the most important issue (www.acf.org.au)
  10. ^ non-binding ‘goal’ (www.aap.com.au)
  11. ^ election eve (www.theguardian.com)
  12. ^ The election shows the conservative culture war on climate change could be nearing its end (theconversation.com)
  13. ^ internal opposition (www.afr.com)
  14. ^ to ransom (theconversation.com)
  15. ^ not much (abcnews.go.com)
  16. ^ scare campaign (www.theguardian.com)
  17. ^ anticipated declining market (www.theguardian.com)
  18. ^ well-publicised (australiainstitute.org.au)
  19. ^ cost of renewables (www.irena.org)
  20. ^ climate change impacts (theconversation.com)
  21. ^ record numbers (www.abc.net.au)
  22. ^ the Greens (www.afr.com)
  23. ^ abandoning net zero (www.theguardian.com)
  24. ^ #Settheagenda poll (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/after-many-false-dawns-australians-finally-voted-for-stronger-climate-action-heres-why-this-election-was-different-183645

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...