The Times Australia
Mirvac Harbourside
The Times World News

.

Is this the end of the two-party system in Australia? The Greens, teals and others shock the major parties

  • Written by Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith University



The Australian Labor Party will form government either outright or in a minority government.

The ALP has so far gained a small 2.8% two-party preferred national swing (though much higher in Western Australia, around 10%).

The crossbench may double in size with a progressive-leaning “potpourri” of candidates including Greens and “teal” independents.

Roughly a quarter of Australians voted for a minor party[1] in the 2019 election (24.7% in the House of Representatives).

This time, it’s predicted over 33% of the electorate voted for minority parties or independents. Such votes in the inner city seats in particular are changing the political equation for the major parties.

The major parties look like only gaining two-thirds of the overall vote. In the past they’ve had more than 80% of the vote, confirming a long-term trend of decline[2] in vote for the major parties. The ALP might take government with only around a third of the vote, so the “third force” of politics in Australia must be taken seriously from now on.

Read more: The big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote[3]

This hi-vis[4] election broadly ignored women, especially professional women[5].

As I commented[6] for CNN, for too long the Australian parliament has been run like private gentleman’s clubs of yesteryear with a culture that prioritises protection for the powerful over professionalism for all.

This election might be the final straw for that culture, and a wake-up call for party campaign strategists.

The ALP is entitled to think a win is a win. But the dominance of the major parties may be over.

So, what’s going on?

It has been a difficult three years for many Australians; for many the most difficult of their lives, dealing with the pandemic and natural disasters.

It was always possible this election might throw up unusual results, especially as the major parties ran business-as-usual, frankly lacklustre, mostly forgettable and negative campaigns focused on the character of the leaders and gotcha moments.

Many undecided voters remained undecided[7] after the three leaders’ debates. Despite the leaders talking predominantly about the short-term cost of living, perhaps it seems voters want urgent leadership on long-term climate adaptation in a government with integrity safeguards.

The Liberals lost many of their blue-ribbon seats to “teal” independent candidates, and both the ALP and Liberals may have lost several inner city seats to the Greens.

It’s likely the major parties were not strong enough on climate change beyond targets, not comprehensive enough on gender equality issues and were silent on higher education cuts in university seats.

The major parties’ campaigns did not disrupt voters’ disengagement and disillusion with politics generally either.

The Greens

Queensland always keeps national pundits on their toes, and this time the “miracle” looks like it’s going the Greens’ way.

It has won the lower house seat of Ryan, and at the time of writing is leading in Griffith. The Greens are also a chance in the seat of Brisbane.

In Victoria, the Greens again won the now safe seat of Melbourne, and may also pick up Macnamara.

The Queensland Greens were confident of their campaign in Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane with concerted door-knocking for many months, targeting issues like aircraft noise[8] and rental rights, and engaging with young people.

The Greens candidate in Ryan, architect Elizabeth Watson-Brown was a quiet but effective grassroots campaigner.

The Greens may also pick up the sixth Queensland Senate seat in a fight with Pauline Hanson.

This bears out recent findings that Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan are particularly exposed to climate risks, as identified in the Climate Council report “Uninsurable Nation[9]”.

Griffith’s Climate Action Beacon conducted one of the most ambitious climate change surveys[10] yet conducted in Australia.

We found this could be the “climate election” because 87% of the respondents indicated they believe climate change should be a priority for the government. This was also the findings of the ABC’s Vote Compass[11].

The Nationals’ vote held this election, so it’s clearly the Liberal Party that has suffered with its voter base.

United Australia Party

Prior to election day, UAP was polling about 3% and so far is around 4.3%.

It’s possible UAP preferences may have an impact[12] on several Western Sydney seats, but beyond that, there was no clear impact despite the $70 million[13] spent on the United Australia Party campaign advertising. The UAP face controversy about a misleading advert[14] about the World Health Organisation on the final day of the campaign.

Craig Kelly was thumped in the seat of Hughes[15], ending his parliamentary career.

Ralph Babet is still a chance for the final Victoria Senate spot.

Read more: Labor to form government as both major parties' primary votes slump[16]

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

One Nation got a national first preference vote[17] of 3.1% in 2019, an increase on the 1.29% it received in 2016.

More candidates ran in this election, pushing up the vote overall but the party did not increase their vote in seats previously contested.

Pauline Hanson herself was almost invisible in the campaign, partly because she tested positive to COVID during the campaign. But she may retain her Senate spot.

More to come

References

  1. ^ voted for a minor party (www.theguardian.com)
  2. ^ long-term trend of decline (www.aph.gov.au)
  3. ^ The big teal steal: independent candidates rock the Liberal vote (theconversation.com)
  4. ^ hi-vis (www.theguardian.com)
  5. ^ professional women (www.afr.com)
  6. ^ commented (edition.cnn.com)
  7. ^ remained undecided (theconversation.com)
  8. ^ aircraft noise (www.theguardian.com)
  9. ^ Uninsurable Nation (www.climatecouncil.org.au)
  10. ^ climate change surveys (www.griffith.edu.au)
  11. ^ Vote Compass (www.abc.net.au)
  12. ^ impact (www.abc.net.au)
  13. ^ $70 million (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ misleading advert (www.smh.com.au)
  15. ^ thumped in the seat of Hughes (www.abc.net.au)
  16. ^ Labor to form government as both major parties' primary votes slump (theconversation.com)
  17. ^ vote (www.aph.gov.au)

Read more https://theconversation.com/is-this-the-end-of-the-two-party-system-in-australia-the-greens-teals-and-others-shock-the-major-parties-182672

Mirvac Harbourside

Times Magazine

YepAI Joins Victoria's AI Trade Mission to Singapore for Big Data & AI World Asia 2025

YepAI, a Melbourne-based leader in enterprise artificial intelligence solutions, announced today...

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an onli...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beau...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data anal...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right c...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in t...

The Times Features

Macquarie Bank Democratises Agentic AI, Scaling Customer Innovation with Gemini Enterprise

Macquarie’s Banking and Financial Services group (Macquarie Bank), in collaboration with Google ...

Do kids really need vitamin supplements?

Walk down the health aisle of any supermarket and you’ll see shelves lined with brightly packa...

Why is it so shameful to have missing or damaged teeth?

When your teeth and gums are in good condition, you might not even notice their impact on your...

Australian travellers at risk of ATM fee rip-offs according to new data from Wise

Wise, the global technology company building the smartest way to spend and manage money internat...

Does ‘fasted’ cardio help you lose weight? Here’s the science

Every few years, the concept of fasted exercise training pops up all over social media. Faste...

How Music and Culture Are Shaping Family Road Trips in Australia

School holiday season is here, and Aussies aren’t just hitting the road - they’re following the musi...

The Role of Spinal Physiotherapy in Recovery and Long-Term Wellbeing

Back pain and spinal conditions are among the most common reasons people seek medical support, oft...

Italian Lamb Ragu Recipe: The Best Ragù di Agnello for Pasta

Ciao! It’s Friday night, and the weekend is calling for a little Italian magic. What’s better than t...

It’s OK to use paracetamol in pregnancy. Here’s what the science says about the link with autism

United States President Donald Trump has urged pregnant women[1] to avoid paracetamol except in ...