The Times Australia
Mirvac Harbourside
The Times World News

.

Scorched dystopia or liveable planet? Here’s where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us

  • Written by Bill Hare, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University
Scorched dystopia or liveable planet? Here’s where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us

The federal election campaign takes place against a background of flooding on Australia’s east coast, where some residents[1] remain in temporary accommodation a month after the disaster. It’s just the latest reminder Australia is set to become a poster child for climate change harms.

Australia has warmed about 1.4℃ since 1910[2]. With it has come[3] extreme heat, bushfires, floods, drought and now, a sixth huge bleaching event[4] on the Great Barrier Reef.

Yet meaningful climate policy debate has largely been absent from this election campaign. So Climate Analytics, a research organisation I lead, has weighed up the policies of the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and the “teal” independents.

We analysed[5] the global warming implications of each party’s or candidate’s target for 2030.

As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns[6], this timeframe is crucial if the world is to stay below the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. Dramatic action by 2030 is also vital to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.

Alarmingly, the Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3℃ of global warming. Labor’s policy is slightly better, but only policies by the Greens and the “teals” are consistent with keeping global warming at or below 1.5℃.

The Coalition

The Morrison government is pursing 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030, based on 2005 levels. If all other national governments took a similar level of action, Earth would reach at least 3℃ of warming, bordering on 4℃, our analysis shows.

That would mean the total destruction of all tropical reefs including Ningaloo and the Great Barrier Reef. And intense heatwaves over land that currently occur about once a decade could happen almost every other year.

At the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow last year, the Morrison government famously refused to increase its 2030 commitments. But the final pact from the meeting, which Australia signed, requires that by November this year, governments will strengthen their 2030 targets to align with the 1.5℃ goal.

Australia is under strong international pressure to meet this obligation, or face further global condemnation[7].

man in suit shakes hands with person in crowd
The Morrison government’s climate policies are consistent with global warming that would destroy the Great Barrier Reef. Mick Tsikas/AAP

Labor

Labor’s target of a 43% emissions cut by 2030, from 2005 levels, is in line with 2℃ of global warming. That means it’s not consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Under 2℃ of warming, extreme heat events that currently happen once a decade could occur about every three to four years. And they would reach maximum temperatures about 1.7℃ hotter[8] than heatwaves in recent decades.

Should Earth overshoot 1.5℃ warming and perhaps reach 2℃, some suggest this may be temporary and temperatures could be brought back down. This would require technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But such technologies are uncertain[9] and come with risks.

And the IPCC’s recent report[10] warned even if 1.5℃ warming is exceeded temporarily, severe and potentially irreversible damage would result. The total loss of the Great Barrier Reef is just one example.

Under 2℃ of warming the most extreme heat events that occurred once in a decade in recent times could occur about every three to four years. The heatwaves would also reach a maximum temperature 1.7℃ hotter than those in recent decades.

two men stand in front of signs
Labor’s climate policy is not consistent with the Paris Agreement. Lukas Coch/AAP

‘Teal’ independents

The “teals” are a group of pro-climate independent candidates.

Most prominent is Warringah MP Zali Steggall, whose climate change bill[11] proposes a 2030 target of 60% below 2005 levels. Most climate policies of the “teals” are generally in line with the Steggall bill.

The target is also supported by industry[12].

We find this target consistent with 1.5℃ of warming, and so compatible with the Paris Agreement. However, it’s at the upper end of the emission levels consistent with the 1.5℃ pathway.

Read more: Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs[13]

smartly-dressed woman with red background
Zali Steggall’s climate policy is consistent with 1.5℃ of warming. Bianca Di Marchi/AAP

The Greens

Of all the climate policies on the table this election, the Greens target of a 74% cut by 2030, based on 2005 levels, is most comfortably consistent with keeping warming below 1.5℃.

That level of warming would still cause damage to Earth’s natural systems and our way of life. But it would avert significant devastation – for example, allowing parts of the Ningaloo[14] and Great Barrier[15] reefs to survive.

Under 1.5℃ global warming, the most extreme heat events[16] that presently occur once a decade could be limited to about every five to six years.

Read more: Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor[17]

The climate policy of the Greens, led by Adam Bandt, is the strongest of those analysed. AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

The land sector problem

Our calculations above do not paint a rosy picture. But they are, in fact, optimistic.

That’s because they include emission reductions from the land and forestry sector through such activities as tree planting and maintaining native vegetation. These so-called carbon sinks were recently described by a key insider as a “fraud[18]”.

If the land and forest sector is excluded from the analysis, the various emissions reduction targets fall considerably: to between 11% and 13% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor, 50% for the teals and 67% for the Greens.

What’s more, even warming limited to 1.5℃ will reduce[19] the capacity of the land sector to remove and store carbon.

Over to you

The scientific consensus is clear[20]. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest and plummet thereafter, to limit global warming to 1.5℃.

Unless policies are substantially strengthened, Earth is set to hit 1.5℃ warming in the 2030s[21], and a future of at least 3℃ warming awaits.

The onus is on the next parliament to protect Australians from climate catastrophe. On May 21, Australian voters have a chance to send a clear message about the kind of world we want to leave for future generations.

Read more: Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century[22]

References

  1. ^ residents (www.theguardian.com)
  2. ^ 1.4℃ since 1910 (www.ipcc.ch)
  3. ^ has come (www.ipcc.ch)
  4. ^ huge bleaching event (www.theguardian.com)
  5. ^ analysed (climateanalytics.org)
  6. ^ warns (www.ipcc.ch)
  7. ^ global condemnation (reneweconomy.com.au)
  8. ^ about 1.7℃ hotter (interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch)
  9. ^ uncertain (climateanalytics.org)
  10. ^ recent report (www.ipcc.ch)
  11. ^ bill (www.aph.gov.au)
  12. ^ supported by industry (www.theguardian.com)
  13. ^ Why teal independents are seeking Liberal voters and spooking Liberal MPs (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ Ningaloo (www.abc.net.au)
  15. ^ Great Barrier (journals.plos.org)
  16. ^ extreme heat events (www.ipcc.ch)
  17. ^ Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor (theconversation.com)
  18. ^ fraud (law.anu.edu.au)
  19. ^ reduce (www.ipcc.ch)
  20. ^ clear (report.ipcc.ch)
  21. ^ 2030s (www.ipcc.ch)
  22. ^ Seriously ugly: here's how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/scorched-dystopia-or-liveable-planet-heres-where-the-climate-policies-of-our-political-hopefuls-will-take-us-182513

Mirvac Harbourside

Times Magazine

YepAI Joins Victoria's AI Trade Mission to Singapore for Big Data & AI World Asia 2025

YepAI, a Melbourne-based leader in enterprise artificial intelligence solutions, announced today...

Building a Strong Online Presence with Katoomba Web Design

Katoomba web design is more than just creating a website that looks good—it’s about building an onli...

September Sunset Polo

International Polo Tour To Bridge Historic Sport, Life-Changing Philanthropy, and Breath-Taking Beau...

5 Ways Microsoft Fabric Simplifies Your Data Analytics Workflow

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly seeking ways to streamline their data anal...

7 Questions to Ask Before You Sign IT Support Companies in Sydney

Choosing an IT partner can feel like buying an insurance policy you hope you never need. The right c...

Choosing the Right Legal Aid Lawyer in Sutherland Shire: Key Considerations

Legal aid services play an essential role in ensuring access to justice for all. For people in t...

The Times Features

Common Wall Mounting Challenges and How Professionals Solve Them

It is not always as easy as it seems to mount artwork, shelves, or TVs, since some difficulties are ...

Understanding Centrelink Investment Property Valuation: A Guide for Australian Property Owners

Introduction Owning an investment property in Australia can bring financial stability — but it al...

The climate crisis is fuelling extreme fires across the planet

We’ve all seen the alarming images. Smoke belching from the thick forests[1] of the Amazon. Sp...

Applications open for Future Cotton Leaders Program 2026

Applications have opened for the 2026 intake for the Australia Future Cotton Leaders Program (AFCL...

Optimising is just perfectionism in disguise. Here’s why that’s a problem

If you regularly scroll health and wellness content online, you’ve no doubt heard of optimisin...

Macquarie Bank Democratises Agentic AI, Scaling Customer Innovation with Gemini Enterprise

Macquarie’s Banking and Financial Services group (Macquarie Bank), in collaboration with Google ...

Do kids really need vitamin supplements?

Walk down the health aisle of any supermarket and you’ll see shelves lined with brightly packa...

Why is it so shameful to have missing or damaged teeth?

When your teeth and gums are in good condition, you might not even notice their impact on your...

Australian travellers at risk of ATM fee rip-offs according to new data from Wise

Wise, the global technology company building the smartest way to spend and manage money internat...