Thu Apr 7

Gains for Labor in three post-budget polls, as budget has weak response compared with historical record

Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The polls presented here are in addition to Monday’s Newspoll (54-46 to Labor) and Ipsos (55-45 to Labor), which I covered here ^[1].

Overall, Labor still has a large poll lead, with little change since the budget. Analyst Kevin Bonham ^[2] says that, while the Coalition isn’t toast yet, Labor is the clear favourite to win the election in May.

A Resolve poll ^[3] for Nine newspapers, conducted March 30 to April 3 from a sample of 1,618, gave Labor 38% of the primary vote (up three since mid-February), the Coalition 34% (up one), the Greens 11% (up one), UAP 3% (down one), One Nation 2% (down one), independents 9% (down one) and others 3% (down two).

As usual, Resolve did not provide a two-party estimate, but Bonham estimated 55.5-44.5 to Labor from the primary votes, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since mid-February ^[4].

53% thought Scott Morrison was doing a bad job and 39% a good job, for a net approval of -14, up three points. Anthony Albanese had a net approval of -4, up one point. Albanese led as preferred PM for the first time, by 37-36 (39-30 to Morrison in February).

The Liberals and Morrison led Albanese and Labor by 37-27 on economic management ^[5] (37-25 in February). On COVID, the Liberals led by 34-27 (33-26 in February).

Essential “2PP+”: 50-45 to Labor

This week’s Essential poll ^[7], conducted March 31 to April 3 from a sample of 1,086 ^[8], gave Labor a 50-45 lead on its “2PP+” measure that includes undecided (48-44 last fortnight). Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (up one), 4% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (up one), 5% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (down two).

Respondent preferences were better for Labor than a fortnight ago, hence their gain despite the primary vote movement against them. Essential continues to have the all Others vote lower than other polls, and is currently the most pro-Coalition pollster.

61% thought cost of living the most important economic ^[9] issue, and Labor led the Coalition by 38-27 on addressing this. 47% thought the government had a lot of influence in controlling household expenses, 41% a little influence and 12% none.

56% thought the budget was more about helping the Coalition win the next election, while 44% thought it was more about helping the economy over the long term.

Morgan poll: 57-43 to Labor

A Morgan poll ^[10], conducted March 28 to April 3 – which means the first two days were before the budget – from a sample of 1,367, gave Labor a 57-43 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the March 21-27 previous poll.

Primary votes were 39.5% Labor (up four), 33% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (down 1.5), 3.5% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 3% others (down 1.5).

Newspoll budget questions

Newspoll has asked three questions after every budget since 1988: whether the budget was good or bad for the economy, good or bad for you personally and whether the opposition would have delivered a better budget.

The worst result for the Coalition was that by 42-40, voters thought Labor would not have delivered a better budget. This two-point lead for no is easily the worst for any Coalition government (see The Poll Bludger’s ^[11] graphs). It is the third worst overall behind Labor 1993 and 2013 budgets, with 1993 the only time more thought the opposition would have done better.

26% said they would personally be better off from the budget and 25% worse off, while 33% said it would be good for the economy and 23% bad. The net +1 for personal compares well with past budgets, but the net +10 for the economy does not. It is the worst economic rating for a budget since Tony Abbott’s first budget in 2014.

Two SA federal seat polls have big swings to Labor

The Poll Bludger ^[13] reported that polls of the Liberal held federal SA seats of Boothby and Sturt had Labor leading by 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt; these would both be swings of 8-9% to Labor from the 2019 election.

These seat polls were conducted by uComms for the left-wing Australia Institute on March 30 from samples of just over 800 per seat. Seat polls are unreliable.

A seat poll of Braddon (Tas), also by uComms for The Australia Institute, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, about a 6% swing to Labor ^[14], but Bonham says ^[15] it’s 50-50 by 2019 election preferences. This poll is in contrast to a Telereach poll ^[16] of the neigbouring seat of Bass, which implied the Liberals were easily winning their most marginal seat.

From the front page of Thursday’s West Australian ^[17], a seat poll in Curtin (WA) gave the Liberals just a 51-49 lead over an independent, compared with a 63.9-36.1 Liberal margin vs Labor at the 2019 election.

Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but would still win easily

A Victorian state Resolve poll ^[18] for The Age gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (down four since January), the Coalition 33% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), independents 12% (up two) and others 9% (up two). Bonham estimated this poll ^[19] would be 55.5-44.5 to Labor, a 3.5-point gain ^[20] for the Coalition.

Incumbent Daniel Andrews led Liberal Matthew Guy by 48-31 as preferred premier (47-30 in January). This poll would have been conducted with the federal Resolve polls in February and last week from a sample of about 1,100.

Tasmanian premier resigns

Tasmanian Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein announced his resignation as premier and from parliament Monday. There will be no byelection to replace him; instead the Hare Clark countback method will elect another Liberal. The ABC says ^[21] current deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff will be the next premier.