how New Zealand could reduce emissions faster and rely less on offsets to reach net zero
- Written by David Hall, Senior Lecturer in Social Sciences and Public Policy, Auckland University of Technology
Past reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC[1]) had an otherworldly feel. The onset of climate change, let alone the low-emissions transition, seemed abstract and far away.
The current assessment cycle sounds and feels in media res, in the midst of things. The IPCC’s earlier report on climate impacts[2], released in February, confirmed impacts of climate change are already upon us. This week’s follow-up on climate mitigation[3] confirms the transition to net zero is underway, however inadequately.
Read more: IPCC says the tools to stop catastrophic climate change are in our hands. Here's how to use them[4]
The complaint that “we have done nothing on climate change” is untenable. The report estimates existing policy instruments have avoided global emissions of at least 1.8 gigatonnes per year. Consequently, the worst-case scenarios are ever less likely[5]. This is a timely reminder of our collective agency, a reminder that we can act deliberately as a global community to reduce gross emissions.
And further progress is on the horizon. The report highlights how recent political and technological developments, especially the plunging costs of renewable energy and stronger public support for climate action, have “opened up new and large-scale opportunities for deep decarbonisation”.
However, these achievements are still insufficient. While global emissions are rising at a slower rate, they are nevertheless rising. Current policy commitments only barely put us on track for an eventual plateauing of emissions by 2050. They imply global warming of 2.4℃ to 3.5℃ by 2100, a disastrous outcome.
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, CC BY-ND[9]
The report also casts new light on demand-side solutions: that is, avoiding high-emissions services, shifting to low-emissions alternatives and improving the efficiency of existing services. It identifies car-free mobility as the largest single source of demand-led mitigation.
To achieve this, the report also notes, with high confidence, that “mobilising a range of policies is preferable to single policy instruments”. This should reinforce the New Zealand government’s recent shift toward more integrated policy making that treats the Emissions Trading Scheme as part of a policy mix[10] rather than its primary policy response.
The major barrier, of course, is politics. The report notes memorably that:
The interaction between politics, economics and power relationships is central to explaining why broad commitments do not always translate to urgent action.
But this explanation simply shows – spurred on by signs of progress – where to keep pushing.
References^ IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)^ report on climate impacts (www.ipcc.ch)^ climate mitigation (www.ipcc.ch)^ IPCC says the tools to stop catastrophic climate change are in our hands. Here's how to use them (theconversation.com)^ ever less likely (www.nature.com)^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)^ On top of drastic emissions cuts, IPCC finds large-scale CO₂ removal from air will be "essential" to meeting targets (theconversation.com)^ early decommissioning (www.nature.com)^ CC BY-ND (creativecommons.org)^ part of a policy mix (ojs.victoria.ac.nz)
