The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

How the war in Ukraine is changing Europe

  • Written by Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University
how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe

Both sides in this war have plundered history. Vladimir Putin claims to be replaying the second world war by “denazifying” Ukraine[1], while his forces desecrate the Holocaust site of Babyn Yar.

Putin’s opponents have their own analogies. Putin is variously Hitler[2], Stalin[3] or Tsar Peter the Great[4].

On social media, memes[5] mine the medieval period to remind the West that when Kyiv was a flourishing metropolis in the 11th century, Moscow was still a wilderness.

Historians are uninterested in these debates. They know both sides can produce maps and histories to “verify” their claims. These need not shape present realities. As the Kenyan representative to the UN[6] said about the African situation, where colonial era borders continue to chafe:

Rather than form nations that looked ever backwards into history with a dangerous nostalgia, we chose to look forward to a greatness none of our many nations and peoples had ever known.

Instead, historians are looking at the rapidly shifting present. They realise history is being made, not replayed in Ukraine. In the process, it is changing the face of Europe.

Germany changes course

In the space of one week, some of the old certainties about Europe have been thrown out the window. Most spectacularly, Germany, whose Nazi past has seen it avoid becoming a significant military power, has now committed itself[7] to dramatically increasing its military spending. An initial injection of €100billion (A$153billion) will be followed by a guaranteed sum of at least 2% of GDP to be spent in each budget.

In contravention of its standing policy prohibiting the sale of armaments to war zones, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced his country will join the rest of Europe in providing weapons[8] to the Ukrainians. German troops are now heading for Lithuania and Slovakia, while air and sea deployments have been made to Romania, the Baltic and the Mediterranean.

New German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has disrupted Germany’s post-war history by intervening in support of Ukraine. Hannibal Hanscke/pool/EPA/AAP

On top of this, Germany’s Merkel-era approach to energy security, which had until days ago rested on the promise of plentiful Russian gas[9], has been scuttled.

Read more: What can the West do to help Ukraine? It can start by countering Putin's information strategy[10]

The rush to NATO

Elsewhere, NATO has also rushed eastward, and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have become a hastily agreed-upon forward post for NATO troops.

Having been firmly against joining NATO for decades, public opinion in Finland[11] has suddenly shifted, with a citizen petition forcing a parliamentary debate on the issue. Alongside the Finns, non-NATO Sweden[12] has been granted special access to NATO intelligence to help co-ordinate European responses to the war.

Now scotched rumours[13] had even abounded that Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria were to donate their fighter places to Ukrainian fighter pilots, stretching the line between military aid and active participation.

Even Switzerland[14], whose neutrality has lasted since the Napoleonic Wars, has suddenly joined the EU’s economic sanctions targeting Russian banks and assets.

Read more: Germany's €100-billion army fund: a remarkable change in post-war policy in response to the Ukraine crisis[15]

Europe’s southeast moves too

Other European states are also altering their political course. Bosnia[16] is mulling over a bid to formally join NATO, while Kosovo[17] is making a pitch to secure a permanent US base on its territory.

Both of these moves would have been viewed as unthinkable provocations to Russia a week ago, and would still represent risky options for NATO. But, with NATO declaring[18] Europe stands at the dawn of a “new normal”, such earlier taboos are giving way to a desire for “more support to countries like Georgia, Moldova, and Bosnia and Herzegovina”.

Meanwhile, French troops[19] have been sent into Romania as part of Europe’s “strategic solidarity” with Ukraine’s neighbours.

Events have swept aside the earlier careful discussions about the consequences of NATO enlargement[20] in Eastern Europe.

French troops have arrived in Romania as part of a ‘strategic solidarity’ with Ukraine’s neighbours. French army/AP/AAP

In the southeast, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has tried to walk a middle road between Russia and NATO, has also succumbed to the pressure of his NATO allies and activated the 1939 Montreux Convention. This effectively closes the Turkish Straits[21] to warships, significantly hampering Russia’s ability to move more ships from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea and on to Crimea and Odessa in southern Ukraine.

Not everything is different

While it appeared Poland and Hungary, along with Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova, had reversed their notoriously anti-refugee policy by opening their eastern borders[22], it has since emerged these openings are still along racial lines[23]. This means the borders are easily traversed by European Ukrainians, but are still very real barriers to the Arab, Asian and African refugees forced to flee their work and studies in Ukraine.

Some alliances with Moscow have remained firm. The story of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko[24] is well-known. His fate has been publicly tied to Russia since massive protests broke out after a fraudulent election destabilised his grip on power. He has used the conflict to increase his grip on power through a dubious referendum[25].

Less well understood outside the Balkans, however, is the position of Serbia’s President[26] Aleksandar Vucic, who has declared his qualified support for Putin, so as to keep Russian support for Serbian objectives in Kosovo and Bosnia. “Serbia respects the norms of international law,” he has declared, “but Serbia also understands its own interests.”

Forgotten histories

Contrary to some reporting, this is not the first major war in Europe since the second world war. The Balkans spent much of the 1990s engulfed in a war that saw the disintegration of Yugoslavia, horrific ethnic cleansing, Serbian genocide, the NATO bombing of Belgrade and the ongoing garrisoning of Kosovo. Indeed, Putin has never forgotten[27] NATO’s actions in the Balkans.

So too, the military conflict between Russian and Ukraine, ongoing since 2014[28], was preceded by the Russian-Georgian War[29] of 2008.

Elsewhere, Iraqis have pointed out that Russia’s attack on Ukraine echoes the 2003 US invasion of Iraq[30], an invasion that also brought into question the robustness of international law.

However, historians are aware these past wars in Europe and beyond did not trigger the kind of rapid and united European action[31] being seen now. Nor did they lead to the threat of nuclear conflict that has re-emerged as Europe walks the tightrope between military aid and becoming an active belligerent that could trigger the kind of nuclear consequences[32] threatened by Putin. This nuclear dilemma was not one faced in the times of Hitler, Stalin or the tsars.

References

  1. ^ “denazifying” Ukraine (www.npr.org)
  2. ^ Hitler (www.independent.co.uk)
  3. ^ Stalin (www.washingtonpost.com)
  4. ^ Tsar Peter the Great (www.voanews.com)
  5. ^ memes (www.businessinsider.com.au)
  6. ^ Kenyan representative to the UN (www.npr.org)
  7. ^ committed itself (www.bundesregierung.de)
  8. ^ providing weapons (www.theguardian.com)
  9. ^ Russian gas (www.abc.net.au)
  10. ^ What can the West do to help Ukraine? It can start by countering Putin's information strategy (theconversation.com)
  11. ^ Finland (www.france24.com)
  12. ^ Sweden (www.euractiv.com)
  13. ^ scotched rumours (www.politico.com)
  14. ^ Switzerland (www.theguardian.com)
  15. ^ Germany's €100-billion army fund: a remarkable change in post-war policy in response to the Ukraine crisis (theconversation.com)
  16. ^ Bosnia (www.aljazeera.com)
  17. ^ Kosovo (www.reuters.com)
  18. ^ NATO declaring (www.nato.int)
  19. ^ French troops (www.dailymail.co.uk)
  20. ^ NATO enlargement (www.dw.com)
  21. ^ Turkish Straits (www.navalnews.com)
  22. ^ opening their eastern borders (apnews.com)
  23. ^ racial lines (www.theguardian.com)
  24. ^ Alexander Lukashenko (www.wsj.com)
  25. ^ dubious referendum (www.dw.com)
  26. ^ Serbia’s President (apnews.com)
  27. ^ Putin has never forgotten (asiatimes.com)
  28. ^ 2014 (www.vox.com)
  29. ^ Russian-Georgian War (foreignpolicy.com)
  30. ^ US invasion of Iraq (www.aljazeera.com)
  31. ^ united European action (www.aljazeera.com)
  32. ^ nuclear consequences (www.dw.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/remembering-the-past-looking-to-the-future-how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-changing-europe-178151

Times Magazine

Data Management Isn't Just About Tech—Here’s Why It’s a Human Problem Too

Photo by Kevin Kuby Manuel O. Diaz Jr.We live in a world drowning in data. Every click, swipe, medical scan, and financial transaction generates information, so much that managing it all has become one of the biggest challenges of our digital age. Bu...

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

The Times Features

What Endo Took and What It Gave Me

From pain to purpose: how one woman turned endometriosis into a movement After years of misdiagnosis, hormone chaos, and major surgery, Jo Barry was done being dismissed. What beg...

Why Parents Must Break the Silence on Money and Start Teaching Financial Skills at Home

Australia’s financial literacy rates are in decline, and our kids are paying the price. Certified Money Coach and Financial Educator Sandra McGuire, who has over 20 years’ exp...

Australia’s Grill’d Transforms Operations with Qlik

Boosting Burgers and Business Clean, connected data powers real-time insights, smarter staffing, and standout customer experiences Sydney, Australia, 14 July 2025 – Qlik®, a g...

Tricia Paoluccio designer to the stars

The Case for Nuturing Creativity in the Classroom, and in our Lives I am an actress and an artist who has had the privilege of sharing my work across many countries, touring my ...

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...