The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

experts debunk Morrison government claim of 53,000 fewer jobs from coal and gas ban

  • Written by Alison Reeve, Deputy Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute
experts debunk Morrison government claim of 53,000 fewer jobs from coal and gas ban

In an analysis recently released to News Limited newspapers[1], the Morrison government claims[2] banning new coal and gas projects in Queensland would risk 53,000 jobs and A$85 billion in investment.

But we checked the job claims and found them highly exaggerated.

The government analysis, released by federal Resources Minister Keith Pitt, came in response to a call[3] by the Greens for a six-month moratorium on new coal, oil and gas projects.

We analysed the most recent government data[4]. We found even in an extreme scenario where all new coal and gas projects are banned, reductions in future Queensland jobs would be at most one-tenth of what the minister claims.

A ban won’t affect every project

The most recent government dataset lists 44 coal projects and nine gas projects in Queensland. Two of the gas projects have already started production, so we discounted these from our analysis.

The rest of the dataset comprises the following projects:

  • six “committed” projects: those with environmental and planning approvals and a final investment decision

  • 29 “feasible” projects: undergoing detailed analysis on their commercial viability, and awaiting environmental and planning approvals

  • 16 “announced” projects with no detailed work behind them yet.

Committed projects wouldn’t be affected by a ban, because authorities have already approved them. That means associated jobs won’t be affected either. Some 2,700 construction jobs and 2,086 operational jobs are associated with these projects. The ban would only affect projects not yet approved – the 45 projects classified “feasible” or “announced”. From now on we’ll refer to these projects as “uncommitted”. If all 45 of these projects went ahead, it would create 26,853 additional construction jobs in Queensland and 19,131 operational jobs – or about 46,000 jobs in total. Read more: Labor's plan to green the Kurri Kurri gas power plant makes no sense[5] Not every project will be developed Most of these uncommitted projects will only ever exist on paper. Official data[6] reveals 29 of the 45 uncommitted projects have been on the books for five years or more without moving to “committed” status. Of the projects that were uncommitted in 2017, only five were listed in 2021 as committed or operating. This progress rate is much worse for coal than gas. Half the gas projects on the books in 2017 are now committed or operating, compared to just 6% of coal projects. If this trend is repeated over the next five years, just one in two Queensland gas projects and one in 16 Queensland coal projects would proceed. This would mean Queensland could expect 4,406 new coal and gas jobs, comprising: 3,013 additional jobs in construction (1,488 in coal and 1,525 in gas) 1,393 additional operational jobs (1,168 jobs in coal and 225 in gas). It’s these 4,406 jobs that wouldn’t be created if there was a ban on new coal and gas projects – a far cry from the 53,000 estimated by the Morrison government. Some 18 projects in the dataset don’t report job numbers, and our analysis doesn’t assume any jobs from these projects. Three of these are committed or complete (so there are more jobs locked in than our estimate of 4,786 suggests). Fifteen are uncommitted, meaning our estimate of the jobs impacted by a ban might be slightly low. We also examined historic data for the small number of committed projects where job number estimates were provided. None created more jobs than their initial estimate, and some provided fewer. In one case, Adani’s Carmichael mine, there were 975 fewer construction jobs and 2,270 fewer operational jobs in the 2021 data than estimated in 2017. So, all this suggests even the more realistic job numbers we calculated aren’t guaranteed to come to fruition. Read more: Japan wants to burn ammonia for clean energy – but it may be a pyrrhic victory for the climate[7] coal fields with machinery The progress rate is much worse for coal projects than gas. Shutterstock Bigger worries for regional Queensland Overall, at least 4,786 jobs are locked in for Queensland from committed projects. A further 4,406 could be expected over the next five years if other projects go ahead. Those 4,406 jobs, most in regional areas, are a lot to give up. In a small regional town, even an extra ten jobs can mean the local primary school retains all its teachers, the bank stays open and the pub remains viable. We shouldn’t dismiss the importance of this. Queensland relies on coal and gas jobs more than some other states. But scaremongering and inflated claims about foregone jobs don’t help the debate – or help people who live in regional areas. If the world is serious about achieving its collective goal of net-zero emissions, we can expect Australia’s coal exports to fall by 60% between 2020 and 2030[8]. It is this falling demand, not a moratorium or a ban, which will have the biggest effect[9] on jobs and regional communities. And it is here that whichever party wins the 2022 election must focus its attention. Read more: 45,000 renewables jobs are Australia’s for the taking – but how many will go to coal workers?[10] References^ News Limited newspapers (www.couriermail.com.au)^ claims (www.heraldsun.com.au)^ a call (adam-bandt.greensmps.org.au)^ most recent government data (www.industry.gov.au)^ Labor's plan to green the Kurri Kurri gas power plant makes no sense (theconversation.com)^ Official data (publications.industry.gov.au)^ Japan wants to burn ammonia for clean energy – but it may be a pyrrhic victory for the climate (theconversation.com)^ by 60% between 2020 and 2030 (grattan.edu.au)^ biggest effect (cpd.org.au)^ 45,000 renewables jobs are Australia’s for the taking – but how many will go to coal workers? (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/highly-exaggerated-experts-debunk-morrison-government-claim-of-53-000-fewer-jobs-from-coal-and-gas-ban-176811

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...