The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Our research shows public support for a First Nations Voice is not only high, it's deeply entrenched

  • Written by Ron Levy, Associate professor, Australian National University

Much has been written about why Indigenous recognition is important. Such[1] recognition would be a legal change to address the dispossession of Indigenous peoples from their lands and rights, and the widescale damage to Indigenous lives and culture.

At the top of the recognition agenda[2] is a national First Nations Voice to Parliament. This would be an advisory body made up of Indigenous Australians that would interact with parliament and review bills affecting Indigenous people.

Currently, the reform[3] enjoys support from both the federal government and opposition, though exactly how to achieve this reform remains a point of contention.

If the Voice goes ahead, one big question is whether the change should be made via the Constitution – and the level of public support for such a change.

Our research suggests support for legal reform on Indigenous issues is not only high, it’s also durable. Public attitudes have shifted to such an extent in the last 40 years, there is little reason to think a constitutionally enshrined Voice wouldn’t pass a referendum if it was held today.

Read more: Why delaying legislation on a Voice to parliament is welcome — it allows more time to get things right[4]

Governments believe public support for change is weak

The views of both the Turnbull and Morrison governments have been that the Voice to Parliament needn’t be enshrined in the Constitution.

However, this view goes against the advice of experts[5], who strongly favour enshrinement to give the Voice stability – especially to prevent its disbandment, as happened[6] with past Indigenous governing bodies. The Voice may also need constitutional status to have a genuine impact on law-making.

It’s never easy to change the Constitution. It requires a referendum, with 50% of voters and 50% of the states voting “yes”. Of the 44 referendums since 1901, only eight have been successful.

Recent governments have argued[7] public support for constitutional enshrinement is too weak to lead to success in a referendum.

But here’s what the polling says

The government’s pessimism here is belied by recent polls suggesting very high support for Indigenous recognition.

In the Australian Election Study[8] surveys conducted by the Australian National University, around three-quarters of voters were prepared to support a change to the Constitution to recognise Indigenous Australians in both 2016 and 2019.

However, recent polls tell just part of the story. Our study of several decades of Australian Election Study polling shows not just transient support for Indigenous recognition, but something potentially deeper.

There has been a gradual firming up of positive attitudes towards legal reform for Indigenous people overall. Because of this, support for a constitutional change is unlikely to collapse in the course of a referendum campaign.

In surveys over 40 years, the results tell a remarkably consistent story. Though it would have been unthinkable in the 1980s, the clear trend since then is towards more favourable attitudes on Indigenous issues.

In the early period of the surveys in the 1980s, only one in five voters thought support for Indigenous Australians – whether it was land rights or assistance from government – had “not gone far enough”.

In 1987, voters who thought that land rights had “gone too far” outnumbered those who thought they had “not gone far enough” by almost five to one[9].

By 2019, however, those believing support for First Nations people had “gone too far” and those believing it had “not gone far enough” were almost equal. This shows a considerable decline in voter hostility towards Indigenous affairs.

Notably, the consistent upward trend is also “secular”, meaning it is unrelated to whichever party is in government and the policies they promote. The long-term change in public opinion seems to rest instead with long-term social and economic changes and a gradual liberalising of attitudes in the country.

Read more: Most Australians support First Nations Voice to parliament: survey[10]

Why have attitudes changed?

Since the 1960s, attitudes towards a wide range of social issues have become more liberal in almost all established democracies. Numerous studies show dramatic changes on issues associated with equality, such as women’s rights[11], same-sex marriage[12] and abortion[13].

The causes of these long-term changes in attitudes are often traced to shifting value systems creating a more tolerant and egalitarian society[14]. Underlying this fundamental shift are unprecedented increases in economic prosperity, physical security and educational opportunities.

We assessed several factors in our study. One possibility is younger generations are more likely to vote “yes” to constitutional reform than older generations. Older generations tend to prioritise physical security and economic well-being as opposed to equality and personal fulfilment[15].

Read more: Indigenous recognition is more than a Voice to Government - it's a matter of political equality[16]

Our data show, however, that factors such as age were not necessarily significant. There were other explanations for the shift in people’s attitudes that were stronger.

Especially significant was whether a person has pursued higher education – a category that, since the 1960s, includes many more Australians than before. Australia has been a world leader in the expansion of higher education. In 2018, just over half of 25- to 34-year-olds had a tertiary education[17].

A greater proportion of people are now better educated, meaning they have received training in the cognitive skills needed to evaluate complex political issues and come to a more considered personal view on Indigenous issues.

Lessons for referendum design

Importantly, education does not take place in schools alone. Some referendum processes do more than others to inform voters[18] through things like online tutorials, televised (including reality-style) programs and “voting advice applications” (like smartvote[19]). This may counter some of the lack of knowledge among voters.

Citizens’ assemblies are another possible tool. These involve recruiting randomly selected citizens as decision-makers and thoroughly informing them on the issues so they can take the lead in writing referendum ballots and information materials[20].

Our results suggest cautious optimism should replace cynicism about the prospects of constitutional recognition. Unprecedented rises in educational attainment may have brought Australian voters at least part way towards a more nuanced and open-minded understanding of Indigenous affairs.

Referendum education programs in the lead-up to the vote itself may take Australians even farther along this path.

References

  1. ^ Such (voice.niaa.gov.au)
  2. ^ recognition agenda (voice.niaa.gov.au)
  3. ^ reform (www.theguardian.com)
  4. ^ Why delaying legislation on a Voice to parliament is welcome — it allows more time to get things right (theconversation.com)
  5. ^ advice of experts (www.indigconlaw.org)
  6. ^ happened (www.aph.gov.au)
  7. ^ argued (www.malcolmturnbull.com.au)
  8. ^ Australian Election Study (australianelectionstudy.org)
  9. ^ five to one (dataverse.ada.edu.au)
  10. ^ Most Australians support First Nations Voice to parliament: survey (theconversation.com)
  11. ^ women’s rights (academic.oup.com)
  12. ^ same-sex marriage (www.jstor.org)
  13. ^ abortion (www.routledge.com)
  14. ^ more tolerant and egalitarian society (www.brandonkendhammer.com)
  15. ^ equality and personal fulfilment (www.tandfonline.com)
  16. ^ Indigenous recognition is more than a Voice to Government - it's a matter of political equality (theconversation.com)
  17. ^ tertiary education (data.oecd.org)
  18. ^ inform voters (papers.ssrn.com)
  19. ^ smartvote (act.smartvote.org)
  20. ^ writing referendum ballots and information materials (sites.psu.edu)

Read more https://theconversation.com/our-research-shows-public-support-for-a-first-nations-voice-is-not-only-high-its-deeply-entrenched-172851

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Tricia Paoluccio designer to the stars

The Case for Nuturing Creativity in the Classroom, and in our Lives I am an actress and an artist who has had the privilege of sharing my work across many countries, touring my ...

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...