The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Do La Niña's rains mean boom or bust for Australian farmers?

  • Written by Chelsea Jarvis, Research fellow, University of Southern Queensland
Do La Niña's rains mean boom or bust for Australian farmers?

After years of punishing drought in some areas, many farmers in Australia’s east were hoping the newly declared La Niña event[1] would bring them good rains.

Many are now rejoicing, with the wettest November experienced in Australia for more than two decades. But for some farmers, heavy and prolonged rain is causing a new set of problems.

Last year’s La Niña delivered good rainfall in some areas – while leaving others drier than they would have been under an El Niño, with many areas in southern Queensland missing out. In La Niña years, the cattle farming town of Roma receives an average of 247mm from November to the end of January. Last year they only got half that.

This year’s La Niña has already delivered rain to many areas left dry last year. Roma, for example, has received more than 200mm in November 2021 alone. These large rainfall events and seasons are required after ongoing drought to recharge the moisture in the soil.

But continued rain will be less welcome in newly waterlogged areas along the Queensland and NSW border and the Northern Rivers region, given it may lead to further flooding.

Read more: Climate change is likely driving a drier southern Australia – so why are we having such a wet year?[2]

What does La Nina mean for farmers?

Seasonal forecasts[3] give a greater than 60% chance of rainfall above the median for much of eastern Australia from now to the end of March.

If this summer of rain eventuates, it will be welcome news for many farmers in eastern Australia who have had below-median rainfall for three or more years.

Map of Australia showing eastern coast higher rainfall prediction
Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY[4][5] Farmers usually welcome La Niña with open arms, given plentiful rainfall can boost production and profits. Still, a boon for one industry can be a burden for another, with heavy or prolonged rainfall able to damage fruit and delicate crops as well as delaying harvests or making them more challenging. Flooding can wash away entire fields and damage roads and other infrastructure. Farmer standing in flood waters Forbes farmer Michael Green poses for photographs as flood water slowly rises at his family property on November 18, 2021. Lukas Coch/AAP For the sugar industry, increased rainfall associated with La Niña can mean sugarcane has to be harvested at lower sugar content levels, or be delayed in harvesting. The cane can be knocked over by heavy rain, which makes harvesting difficult and reduces yield, all of which reduce profitability. For the grains industry, the bumper grain crop predicted for 2021 has already been downgraded[6] in areas like New South Wales due to flooding, with losses expected to be in the billions. By contrast, the beef industry in Queensland relies on grass, so a La Niña summer with above average rain can increase pasture growth and regeneration as well as cattle weight gain and market prices. This double-edged sword – too much rain or not enough – is nothing new to Australian farmers. Understanding how La Niña and other ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events impact different regions and industries is critical to take advantage of good years, minimise losses in poor years, and make sound decisions based on the best possible information. What does that look like? In La Niña years, cattle farmers may decide to move their cattle out of flood prone regions or rest a paddock to allow it to regenerate with the extra rain, which will provide more grass in the following season. For grain farmers, La Niña means keeping a close eye on both three-month seasonal climate forecasts and the daily weather forecasts to decide if it’s worth the risk to plant a big crop and if they are likely to be able to harvest it before any big rainfall events occur. Read more: Yes, Australia is a land of flooding rains. But climate change could be making it worse[7] Storm moving across field of wheat La Niña’s rain can mean promise or threat to farmers. Shutterstock Can we predict La Niña rainfall? La Niña events usually bring average to above average rain to much of Australia’s east. Unfortunately, no two La Niñas occur in the same way. Because of this variability, it is important for farmers to understand how La Niña events impact their area so that they can plan for likely conditions. Australia’s east coast climate is heavily influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring phenomenon centred in the tropical Pacific that consists of three separate phases: La Niña, El Niño, and a neutral or inactive phase. La Niña years occur around 25% of the time, with El Niño years also at 25%, and neutral years making up 50%. ENSO is not fully predictable, and moves irregularly between these phases. While it is unusual to have back-to-back La Niñas it is not unprecedented. During these La Niña events, surface water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific cools and the ocean to the north of Australia tends to warm. Changes in the ocean drive changes in the atmosphere over the Pacific. Like a rock thrown in a pond, however, this Pacific phenomenon ripples outwards, causing atmospheric changes in places like Australia and Chile. In Australia, La Niña tends to bring more rain and lower temperatures across much of the country, while we see increases in heavy rain, flooding[8], and severe tropical cyclones making landfall[9]. What does the future hold? While most La Niña events are projected to produce less rainfall[10] in many regions, projections suggest the wettest La Niña years will tend to be just as wet or wetter that they were in the past. Australia’s farmers will continue to face the challenges of floods and droughts brought by La Niña and El Niño, but as farmers learn more about these events and how they impact their area and industry, they can become more resilient. References^ newly declared La Niña event (www.bom.gov.au)^ Climate change is likely driving a drier southern Australia – so why are we having such a wet year? (theconversation.com)^ Seasonal forecasts (www.bom.gov.au)^ Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au)^ CC BY (creativecommons.org)^ already been downgraded (www.theguardian.com)^ Yes, Australia is a land of flooding rains. But climate change could be making it worse (theconversation.com)^ flooding (journals.ametsoc.org)^ making landfall (link.springer.com)^ projected to produce less rainfall (link.springer.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/do-la-ninas-rains-mean-boom-or-bust-for-australian-farmers-172511

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...

Troubleshooting Flickering Lights: A Comprehensive Guide for Homeowners

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Effectively addressing flickering lights in your home is more than just a matter of convenience; it's a pivotal aspect of both home safety and en...

My shins hurt after running. Could it be shin splints?

If you’ve started running for the first time, started again after a break, or your workout is more intense, you might have felt it. A dull, nagging ache down your shins after...

Metal Roof Replacement Cost Per Square Metre in 2025: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Homeowners

In recent years, the trend of installing metal roofs has surged across Australia. With their reputation for being both robust and visually appealing, it's easy to understand thei...