The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

Yes, Australia can beat its 2030 emissions target. But the Morrison government barely lifted a finger

  • Written by Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Yes, Australia can beat its 2030 emissions target. But the Morrison government barely lifted a finger

With just over a fortnight until world leaders gather in Glasgow at a make-or-break United Nations climate conference, all eyes are on the biggest climate laggards, including Australia.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison continues to claim Australia will “meet and beat” its current 2030 target of reducing emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels. But unlike many of his international counterparts, he has so far resisted increasing the 2030 target.

In a report[1] released today, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation[2], our team at Climate Analytics conclude Australia will indeed beat its current 2030 target. We project Australia’s emissions are likely to be around 30-38% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Our analysis shows almost all the emissions reductions will be the result of state government policies, and will have virtually nothing to do with the federal government. It also suggests that, given the almost total absence of substantial federal climate policies to date, Australia can do a lot more.

coal truck at mine
The federal government is a strong backer of the fossil fuel industry. Shutterstock

Crunching the numbers

So how did we reach these figures?

First, before or by 2030, coal-fired power plants will close early. Victoria’s Yallourn plant in the LaTrobe Valley will close in 2028[3] and one unit[4] at the Eraring coal plant in New South Wales will close in 2030.

These closures could bring 2030 emissions down by 1.2- 1.5% if they are replaced by renewables and storage, as appears to be the case.

The federal government, in its 2020 projections[5], said renewable energy will provide just over 50% of power supply nationally by 2030. Our projections show that figure to be more like 58-65%. This is due to state government action to encourage the continued record rollout of rooftop solar on homes and increase the amount of large-scale renewables entering the market.

At the state level, NSW, Victoria, the ACT and South Australia all have strong electric vehicle policies. Our analysis shows that by 2030, electric vehicles will make up 13-18.5% of light vehicles on the road.

To date, the Morrison government has no policy to promote electric vehicles, and Australia is one of only a few countries in the OECD[6] with no emissions standards for cars.

Trends in Australia’s land use and forestry emissions are also pointing in the right direction. But the federal government projects a reduction[7] in the carbon stored in our vegetation and forests, known as the carbon sink, compared with 2020 levels.

The federal government also assumes[8] a continuing high level of land clearing through to 2030, which will lead to less natural carbon storage. But our work indicates land clearing rates are unlikely to be as high as the government expects. We project by 2030 the overall sink increases above 2020 levels – again, as a result of state policies, not federal.

Read more: Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief[9]

Scrub in pile on cleared land
Land clearing rates are unlikely to be as high as the government expects. Shutterstock

The federal government falsehood

All these reductions show state-based climate action is likely to reduce national emissions by around 28-33% by 2030, without a single move from the federal government. That’s most of the 30-38% emissions reduction we predict will occur by 2030.

The rest will come as our major trading partners tackle their domestic emissions by reducing coal and gas imports. We estimate that will lead to a reduction in Australian coal and LNG production, driving overall emissions down a further 2.6-3.4% by 2030.

The federal government’s claim it is “meeting and beating” its targets is a falsehood. It is doing little, but claiming credit from the hard work of Australia’s states and territories.

Federal policies remain firmly fixed on keeping fossil fuels in the energy mix and expanding coal and gas production. It recently approved several new coal mines[10] and announced subsidised and expanded gas production. Gas is a fossil fuel that also needs to be phased out if we’re to have any chance of keeping warming to 1.5℃.

The Morrison government is also increasing funding for carbon capture and storage, a policy aimed at continuing the use of fossil fuels. This is despite the country’s largest such project[11], the Gorgon venture off Western Australia, failing to reduce and store carbon emissions at the rate originally promised.

The annual Climate Transparency analysis[12], released on Wednesday, shows Australia has some of the G20’s highest per capita emissions. It is the only developed country in the G20 with no price on carbon, yet ranks the fourth highest for risk of economic losses from climate impacts.

Read more: Asia's energy pivot is a warning to Australia: clinging to coal is bad for the economy[13]

Man holds lump of coal and looks at other smiling man
The Morrison government is increasing funding for carbon capture and storage, a policy aimed at continuing the use of fossil fuels. Mick Tsikas/AAP

It doesn’t need to be this way

Our analysis shows that if the federal government weighed in, Australia could easily halve emissions by 2030, if not reduce them to 60%.

Our report outlines three ways the government could achieve this:

  1. Emissions reach around 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. Decarbonisation efforts are made in the electricity, buildings and transport sectors. Under this scenario, renewables would generate 95% of the country’s electricity by 2030.

  2. Emissions reach the same levels as the scenario above. This scenario would also involve some decarbonisation of the energy sector, but mitigation must also ramp up in agriculture, waste and industry.

  3. Emissions reach around 60% below 2005 levels by 2030. Mitigation efforts are ramped up in Australia’s most emissions-intensive sectors - energy and industry.

Measures in these scenarios all involve:

  • phasing out coal in the energy sector by 2030
  • ensuring that by 2030, electric vehicles comprise 85% of all new cars sold and at least half of new trucks sold
  • measure to avoid 85% of emissions in the LNG industry.

These scenarios still do not represent an emissions pathway in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5℃ warming limit. We also offer a 1.5℃-compatible pathway, involving domestic emissions reduction to at least 65-75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and substantial increases in international climate finance.

Our analysis from 2020[14] shows the large employment benefits such measures would bring just in the energy sector – many of them delivered well before before 2030. Other research[15] into export opportunities also shows big employment benefits.

Australia is perfectly placed to capitalise on the clean, green global transition, but time is running away as other countries chase these opportunities. To drive this transformation, the federal government must set deep emissions targets for 2030, consistent with the Paris Agreement. A 50% emissions reduction by 2030 is the bare minimum needed.

Read more: What is COP26 and why does the fate of Earth, and Australia's prosperity, depend on it?[16]

References

  1. ^ report (www.acf.org.au)
  2. ^ Australian Conservation Foundation (www.acf.org.au)
  3. ^ will close in 2028 (www.latrobe.vic.gov.au)
  4. ^ one unit (reneweconomy.com.au)
  5. ^ in its 2020 projections (www.industry.gov.au)
  6. ^ a few countries in the OECD (www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au)
  7. ^ projects a reduction (www.industry.gov.au)
  8. ^ also assumes (www.industry.gov.au)
  9. ^ Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response, in brief (theconversation.com)
  10. ^ coal mines (www.theguardian.com)
  11. ^ largest such project (reneweconomy.com.au)
  12. ^ Climate Transparency analysis (www.climate-transparency.org)
  13. ^ Asia's energy pivot is a warning to Australia: clinging to coal is bad for the economy (theconversation.com)
  14. ^ analysis from 2020 (climateactiontracker.org)
  15. ^ Other research (www.wwf.org.au)
  16. ^ What is COP26 and why does the fate of Earth, and Australia's prosperity, depend on it? (theconversation.com)

Read more https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger-169835

Times Magazine

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Science Behind Reverse Osmosis and Why It Matters

What is reverse osmosis? Reverse osmosis (RO) is a water purification process that removes contaminants by forcing water through a semi-permeable membrane. This membrane allows only water molecules to pass through while blocking impurities such as...

The Times Features

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...

Troubleshooting Flickering Lights: A Comprehensive Guide for Homeowners

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Effectively addressing flickering lights in your home is more than just a matter of convenience; it's a pivotal aspect of both home safety and en...

My shins hurt after running. Could it be shin splints?

If you’ve started running for the first time, started again after a break, or your workout is more intense, you might have felt it. A dull, nagging ache down your shins after...

Metal Roof Replacement Cost Per Square Metre in 2025: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Homeowners

In recent years, the trend of installing metal roofs has surged across Australia. With their reputation for being both robust and visually appealing, it's easy to understand thei...

Why You’re Always Adjusting Your Bra — and What to Do Instead

Image by freepik It starts with a gentle tug, then a subtle shift, and before you know it, you're adjusting your bra again — in the middle of work, at dinner, even on the couch. I...

How to Tell If Your Eyes Are Working Harder Than They Should Be

Image by freepik Most of us take our vision for granted—until it starts to let us down. Whether it's squinting at your phone, rubbing your eyes at the end of the day, or feeling ...